Powerball

12z NAM is all rain for Detroit, which would be fine with me.

It was a roller coaster month, which when it was all said and done (if I recall) averaged out to being less than a degree within the normal temp for April. But yes, there were a couple hard freezes.

Even 2012 wasn't a wall-to-wall torch. While March and May were very warm, April was "exceptionally normal" by Great Lakes standards (temp-wise).

12z NAM has a nice sounding for TSSN+ over much of the region Saturday afternoon/evening.

If anything, you may have to worry about a whiff to the south if trends continue with the southward shifts.

I'll be actually leaving 70s and 80s down here and flying back to Detroit for a week on Saturday. So given my luck, I think a few inches of snow is pretty much guaranteed, lol.

lol.

Russia.

But still, the eastern Great Lakes region (especially areas downwind of them) is right behind Seattle and Portland in terms of cloudiness. Everywhere else in the country sees much more sunshine. I was just discussing on another forum how we've only seen one sub-70*F day since the first 3 days of April, and only 3 cloudy days (Snowless on Carrollton is originally from an area about 20 minutes from where I'm at, to give some perspective). The leaves have been in full bloom for about a week now and we've had several rounds of severe weather too (even a tornado about 7 miles away). In Michigan, conversely, mother nature would NEV-AH, lol. Though the trade off is that we saw no measurable snow this past winter (not that I'm complaining).

Where do I place my bets against that happening? Even 1992 and 2009 had a couple 90*F+ days, lol.

I guess there's a first for everything. The relative lack of activity in this thread speaks for itself, lol.

I suggest you book a trip to Dallas or Austin.

But to be fair though, as frustrating as torches might be, they're to be expected at your latitude and elevation. And it's funny how relative everything is. The GA/AL folks on the other forum went into meltdown mode themselves after the post-frontal snow event last week failed (yeah, I know they only average 2" in a season, but they're passionate). They're extremely jealous of the winter Chicago has had.

Have you considered moving to Marquette, Duluth or Fargo?

1/17/18 might not be a bad analogy for Atlanta... https://www.wsbtv.com/news/local/snowfall-totals-this-winter-is-the-snowiest-in-years/685142911

It may not be much of a consolation, but FWIW, even with the northern track progged, it still looks be to cold enough for the precip to be all snow for you guys ahead of the front. It could be a decent thumping too (quick 3-5"), as the models are showing some decent mid-level lapse rates.

Personally, I'd say it's far more than typical for these things to come north of Puerto Rico. This one should be a lock for that.

The last 2 seem reasonable, but that 1st one is definitely funny.

Another thing to keep in mind too is that weather occurs in cycles. I know you've only been there a short time, but the past few years up there in general have been nothing to write home about in terms of big storms/extreme weather because the overall pattern has not been favorable (I'm sure at least partially due to the solar minimum). I think you just arrived to the region at an unlucky time for a weather enthusiast. That said, things were really on and popping around here during the roughly 2006 - 2011 time frame, while east coasters were practically about to jump off cliffs because the big storms kept cutting NW of them. Specifically, during the 2007 - 2009 window, there was virtualy significant weather for us to track every single day, whether it was severe weather, LES or a snow/ice storm. And I'm sure the region will experience a similar pattern again at some point in the future.

One thing I do miss is when I would get hit by a decent/severe t'storm or experience impressive weather (I.E. record-breaking heat), or (more often than not) when I would bitch about a weather event going wrong, there would always be other posters in the Detroit area or the general IL/OH/IN/MI/WI area who came along within hours and respond with something (even if it was nothing more than a smart ass remark from certain individuals). Down here, majority of the time, I'm literally saying "Bueller...? Bueller...?", because the folks in the Carolinas don't really give much of a **** about GA weather. You may think it sucks, but the grass isn't always greener.

I disagree with the bolded. 90% of the Southeast forum is filled with people from NC/SC. And while I'm sure most of them are fine people and I don't mean to be rude about this, in large part the extent of their discussion is either whining about the Summer heat/humidity or hyping up snow (which is crazy to me given their climo, but to each his/her own). In Georgia, a state of over 10 million, there's a grand total of 3 semi-active posters in that subforum and then 1 additional poster who only posts occasionally, 3 of which are in Metro Atlanta (the 3rd fastest growing place in the country with 6 million people and counting) and 1 of whom is a mod. And even those users are more often than not MIA when there are severe weather events in the Summer (which is their perrogative). I have yet to see any posters from MS/AL/TN/FL. The Midwest subforum isn't perfect, and I can't speak on the Mid-Atlantic forum, but at least the geography of the posters in this region is evenly spread throughout the entire region and there's always an active group of posters tracking severe weather events AND winter storms. There are also more meteorologists on this subforum too (although, admittingly, some of them are too quiet and the others may not be the most professional).

IMO, the real reason GRR won't go with a warning is because they fear the backlash (being accused of overhype) if they hedge their bets on the model guidance and the totals end up falling short. In all fairness, it is still a marginal set up for their CBD. I know, it seems silly, but that's the only logical explanation I can come up with (versus the one they gave).

That's certainly a "different" justification for not issuing a warning.