Powerball

You can now start to see what looks to be gravity waves on the visible satellite, and the CU field increasing. This is all on the nose of the 700mb jet streak. Should start seeing action rev up soon.

5000 J/KG MUCAPE popping up on the SPC mesoanalysis page now. Also, LIs of -12

As of 3pm, for the first time this year, DFW has hit 90*F.

000 FXUS64 KFWD 031832 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 132 PM CDT Mon May 3 2021 ...New Short Term, Aviation... .SHORT TERM... /NEW/ /Today and Tonight/ Severe thunderstorms capable of producing significant large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes will be possible late this afternoon into tonight. All North and Central Texas residents need to stay weather aware today given the possibility of significant severe weather. Make sure to have multiple ways of receiving any weather alerts, and have a plan in case you are in the path of hazardous weather. A rapid evolution of today and tonight`s forecast has taken place within the last 24 hours. Minor changes in the timing of the front and rapid moisture return have contributed to an increasing potential for significant severe weather starting late this afternoon. A cold front is now draped northeast to southwest from near Bowie to Graham, slowly advancing to the southeast. Meanwhile, dew points throughout the region have surged into the lower 70s ahead of the front. At the moment, a stout capping inversion is keeping convection from developing. This, however, is expected to change in the next few hours. Radiational heating will continue ahead of the front, leading to greater destabilization across the region. CAMs continue to favor an area around Stephenville for initial thunderstorm development, which coincides with recent RAP analysis of a developing area of greater moisture convergence. An incoming shortwave, coupled with the surface front and a pseudo-dryline will come together to produce explosive thunderstorm development initially to the west/southwest of the DFW Metroplex. Storms will then migrate eastward through North Texas. Steep mid-level lapse rates will lead to CAPE values exceeding 4000 J/kg which would translate to significantly large hail. Deep layer shear and a strong southerly low-level flow will also increase the potential for damaging winds and tornadoes. The overall tornado potential will depend on the evolution of the storms across North Texas. If storms are able to remain discrete, a greater tornado potential may develop in areas east of I-35 and north of I-30. An atypical setup this evening will also lead to a potential for severe storms behind the front. Given continued steep lapse rates and high amounts of instability, a few elevated supercells capable of large hail will be possible across North Texas after around 10pm. The main line of storms associated with the front will continue moving to the southeast through the night, likely exiting our far eastern and southeastern counties closer to sunrise Tuesday. Cloudy skies will persist through much of tomorrow morning, but should gradually disperse by tomorrow afternoon. In contrast with today`s temperatures in the upper 80s to lower 90s, tomorrow`s highs will stay in the 80s across North Texas to mid 70s across Central Texas.

I'm not impressed with the tornado threat frankly, with the veered wind profile above 925mb and the (relatively) limited low-level shear. The hail threat is legit though, as well as the potential for downburst winds.

Actually, all of the Collin County suburbs (Plano, Frisco, McKinney, Allen, etc.) are in the 10% hatched SigTor area.

What a mess of a setup. This map might end up being closer to correct after all.

Latest forecast for my area from FWD (previously, it only called for a 20% slight chance of t'storm this evening).

lol. I applaud them for doing this ahead of the storms. I just hope nothing else goes wrong that delays this repair.

Good sign for the slight risk (or maybe even enhanced risk?) area expanding into DFW...

BTW, I should add, one thing we got going for us this time (finally) is that the much of the day will feature full sunshine. Couldn't really say that for the other events we've had this season.

This could be another one of those days where we see monster-sized hail somewhere in the Metroplex, if the cap weakens as the Hi-Res models are advertising. I'm surprised the SPC hasn't at least expanded the Slight Risk area southward along the dry line, given they done so all season up until now when the Hi-Res models looked less impressive.

Gotta say, it is interesting to see the Hi-Res models are bullish with convection this evening around DFW. 5000 J/KG of CAPE and nearly 9 C/KM mid-level lapse rates are advertised around the same time on the 3km NAM, so it would be fun.

It's been a banner severe weather spring for Dixie Alley though.

Or, it could just be like the past few years: ZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZ At this point, I'll be happy with just getting another derecho in the middle of June (ala 2019). I just want out of this pattern of BN temps and grungy / gloomy skies.

Only got a few rumbles of thunder here. Not even a drop of rain from it. It also looks like it weakened significantly once it crossed over into Collin County. In any event, I'm calling it a night.

That's what the HRRR shows. But I suspect things will have transitioned to a heavy rain threat by then.

For a second, there were indications that the outflow boundary (now over DFW) would steal the show, which might have been why the enhanced risk area was shifted eastward. Apparently, seeing the latest radar trends, it's not going to work out that way.

That's my understanding.

At least here in DFW, the climatological peak for Severe Weather is now. There's still time (and yes, big severe weather events have happened in May or even June), but climo is going to gradually become less favorable as we move forward from here.

I wouldn't call it a dull season. It's just that Dixie Alley has gotten all of the action.

Maybe DFW can eventually get a nice derecho like it did in June 2019 to make up for the otherwise "BLAH!!!" season...