Powerball

So far, this Spring hasn't had many similarities with 2011. For April 2011, the temp was 71*F. This year, it's currently 63*F (average is 66.5*F). Spring 2011 was also dry as a bone (no observed precip for March and April). This Spring, to-date, we're at 5.9". The temp for March this year was similar to 2011, though.

Actually, I'm mistaken. the latest was actually 6/12. But that was definitely a back loaded Summer, as DFW ended up with 18 100*F+ days.

DFW's latest 1st 90*F high on record is 6/6. That same season also had only 1 100*F+ day. I pray we don't make a run for those records. But it doesn't look like DFW has a legitimate shot at 90*F+ any time in the forseeable future. The average first 90*F+ day is 4/19, BTW.

Potentially. Models are still struggling with how progressive the trough will be.

Tornado Warning has been issued for Denton County, TX until 7:20pm.

Mesoscale Discussion 0409 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0328 PM CDT Fri Apr 23 2021 Areas affected...portions of west-central and north Texas Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 98... Valid 232028Z - 232230Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 98 continues. SUMMARY...A few intense cells are possible the next 2-4 hours across parts of northern/west-central Texas. Large hail and damaging gusts are the main hazards expected with this activity. DISCUSSION...Additional thunderstorms are develop and/or strengthening just ahead of the eastward-advancing dryline this afternoon. This activity is moving into an airmass that has seen less thunderstorm activity early in the day compared to areas to the east and south, and where dewpoints have climbed into the mid to upper 60s. Increasing low level moisture beneath midlevel lapse rates around 7.5-8.5 C/km is resulting in 1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE, supporting storm intensification. Furthermore, regional VWP data suggest shear profiles have continued to improve/strengthen which should allow for some better-organized cells. 20z experimental Warn-on-Forecast ensemble guidance also indicates a few intense cells are possible across the MCD area, including western portions of the Fort Worth metro area, over the next 2-4 hours, potentially producing large hail and damaging gusts. ..Leitman.. 04/23/2021 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FWD...SJT... LAT...LON 31919933 32769901 33069876 33299824 33279762 33099736 32839725 32529730 32149738 32029747 31649766 31219824 31159877 31129904 31299931 31599932 31919933

This is the storm that just blew through here. Didn't get any hail, mind you. Severe Thunderstorm Warning TXC085-113-397-232030- /O.NEW.KFWD.SV.W.0086.210423T1927Z-210423T2030Z/ BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Warning National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 227 PM CDT Fri Apr 23 2021 The National Weather Service in Fort Worth has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... Northwestern Rockwall County in north central Texas... Collin County in north central Texas... Northeastern Dallas County in north central Texas... * Until 330 PM CDT. * At 227 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Richardson, moving northeast at 30 mph. HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and half dollar size hail. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to roofs, siding, and trees. * Locations impacted include... Dallas, Plano, Garland, McKinney, Carrollton, Frisco, Richardson, Allen, Rowlett, Wylie, Rockwall, Farmers Branch, University Park, Sachse, Addison, Highland Park, Murphy, Royse City, Fairview and Princeton. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... For your protection get inside a sturdy structure and stay away from windows. && LAT...LON 3335 9638 3334 9638 3334 9637 3328 9629 3299 9630 3292 9652 3281 9677 3299 9689 3299 9684 3311 9684 3338 9642 TIME...MOT...LOC 1927Z 232DEG 27KT 3298 9672 HAIL...1.25IN WIND...60MPH $$ Sanchez

Nothing severe, but getting torrential downpours and loud cracks of thunder. Even seeing some cloud-to-ground lightning. This is the first t'storm I've seen in the daytime here, I might add.

It's a pretty underwhelming sounding in general.

Mesoscale Discussion 0405 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CDT Fri Apr 23 2021 Areas affected...portions of northern and central Texas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 231629Z - 231800Z Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorm activity is expected to increase over the next couple of hours. Large hail and locally damaging wind gusts will be possible with this activity through the afternoon/evening. A severe thunderstorm watch will likely be needed by 18z. DISCUSSION...An area of deepening, midlevel convection atop the EML across west-central TX is evident in radar and visible satellite imagery as of 16z. This is indicative of increasing large-scale ascent now spreading into western TX, in conjunction with continued warm advection/increasing moisture beneath the weakening EML. Over the next couple of hours, convection is expected to continue to increase with a slow erosion of the cap. This may result in a mix of elevated storms, transitioning toward surface-based convection through the afternoon. Very steep midlevel lapse rates (7.5-8.5 C/km) and favorable, elongated hodographs will support large hail. PW values increasing to around 1.5-1.75 with northward extent, and increasing low level flow will also promote strong/locally damaging gusts. ..Leitman/Hart.. 04/23/2021 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...HGX...FWD...OUN...EWX...SJT... LAT...LON 29309832 29519883 29789911 30589935 31169932 31449930 34059863 34319832 34409769 34349711 34259672 33769649 33179633 32929633 30459625 29629661 29319716 29269775 29309832

Correction: A 30% hail area was added in SW OK.

On the latest outlook from the SPC, the enhanced risk areas have been shuffled around a bit. The one covering Eastern TX / LA was shifted SW and now extends into all of far southern MS, and the one covering south central OK was expanded westward. Otherwise, I don't see any other major changes

It looks like things are now trying to get going just to the west of Brownwood, TX.

Enhanced risk has been added by the SPC over south central OK, including OKC.

Good call on the day 1 enhanced risk from the SPC.

Hi-Res models have been mixed on convection coverage locally. Some go bonkers (like the 3km NAM and RGEM), and others give us the middle finger (NMMB and ARW) This time though, the cap won't be an issue. It's going to be where the best forcing and convergence sets up.

That said, I'm still concerned most of the widespread/organized convection will miss DFW just to the south and east.

000 FXUS64 KFWD 230112 AAA AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 812 PM CDT Thu Apr 22 2021 ...New Short Term, Aviation... .SHORT TERM... /NEW/ /Through Friday Night/ The primary weather concern over the next short term forecast period revolves around chances for severe convection across North and Central Texas. Friday will be a day that individuals should monitor the weather closely from a trusted source as severe weather will likely strike quickly. In addition, there will be a risk for areas of fog/drizzle that could reduce visibility down to below 1 mile. Surface analysis in tandem with satellite imagery indicated a conveyor of richer near surface moisture extended from South Texas northwestward toward western reaches of the Hill Country. Ceiling observations in tandem with aircraft data (AMDAR) from Dallas Love Field and our presently ascending 00 UTC weather balloon showed a large amount of dry air from near 5,000 feet toward the surface across North and Central Texas. While the radarscope has slowly continued to illuminate thanks to increased mid-upper level ascent (implied by increasing high clouds), I think we`ll be hard pressed to measure any rainfall over the next 6 to 12 hours thanks to the aformentioned dry air. As a result, I`ve opted for a mention of sprinkles as opposed to rain showers for many areas through 12 UTC Friday, though a few areas may measure south of I-20 and west of US HWY 281 as ceilings fall below 1,000 feet during the pre-dawn hours on Friday. A warm front extended from near Del Rio to Victoria this evening and thanks to observed surface pressure falls between 2-4 mbar over the past several hours, this boundary should have no problem lifting northward tonight. As it does, we`ll see an increased advection fog potential between 3 am and sunrise across western Central Texas and likely our initial shower and thunderstorm development after sunrise Friday. While advective in nature, fog processes may be hindered some as 925mb flow is expected to remain quite turbulence and as a result of this, I`ll omit the mention of "dense" fog from the worded forecast. However, we`ll monitor this potential during the overnight hours. One of the more significant changes made to the forecast (though I`m still very cautious about this) was to delay the wording of "severe" in the zones until the afternoon. Initial glances at some of the hi- res model guidance would suggest that deep convection could fire as early as 15 UTC. However, taking a look at some of the synoptic guidance, it doesn`t appear that appreciable height falls associated with the main PV anomaly currently across western Arizona will not impinge upon our area until closer to 17-18 UTC. Moreover, there`s still a little bit of remnant capping evident in forecast soundings so the potential for surface based convection in the morning looks low at this time. I still show high chance PoPs (50%) through 16 UTC for areas near/southwest of a Jacksboro to Waco to Temple line, but I believe the potential for a larger coverage of severe weather may not occur until Friday afternoon...closer to 18-19 UTC (more in accordance with the NSSL WRF and NCEP WRF ARW core). It`s possible that even this timing may be a little too early. Does that mean that we won`t have severe weather across our area in the morning? NO! In fact, IF elevated convection gets going along the northward lifting warm front, it`ll certainly have a large hail potential given 0-6km bulk wind differences of 50 knots and 700-500mb lapse rates closer to 8 C/km. Because this activity is expected to be elevated, I believe the damaging wind and tornado threat will be low. Any surface based storm near the warm front, however, will need to be monitored closely for a damaging wind and/or tornado threat! As stronger forcing for ascent emerges from the west, I do believe that both newly formed and any ongoing convection will strengthen very, very quickly. While widespread cloud cover will likely dampen what would otherwise be much higher instability values, CAPE is still progged to average out to around 2000 J/kg across our area in a strongly sheared environment (supportive of supercellular structures). Forecast soundings suggest that the high shear and steep lapse rates would facilitate large to potentially significant hail sizes (2+ in diameter), along with damaging winds. 0-1 km shear values from hi-res guidance suggest that these values will be maximized to the south and east of the Metroplex, and thus I would anticipate a greater tornado risk here. However, low level SRH may also increase farther north across Northeast Texas (near and east of US HWY 75) depending on where the frontal boundary stalls and any storm interacting with the warm front (or any additional boundary) will have an enhanced wind and tornado threat. Storms will likely exit East Texas between 03-06 UTC, but the dryline appears that it`ll lag back to the west. A cold front is expected to crash southward from Oklahoma Friday night and normally this would present another opportunity for additional convection to fire. However, we`ll be on the subsident side of the upper trough and this will likely suppress any deep convection. However, they`ll likely be attempts along the boundary and if an updrafts can realize what should still be unstable air, there could be a brief strong to severe weather threat after midnight. Bain

No changes in the latest update to the SPC's Day 2 Outlook.

We're going to need that trough to slow down (like the 00z GFS / GGEM / EURO show) for things to work out along a ICT-OKC-DFW line. Otherwise, we're looking at yet another Dixie Alley special. Unfortunately, models seem to underestimate how progressive the upper flow is in the medium/long term, so I'm skeptical they won't trend faster as we get closer in. But it's definitely the best looking potential we've had all season, FWIW.

At this point, it's looking like (per usual) the widespread convection tomorrow will be just east of DFW. But it's a much closer call than we've had all season. CINH looks to be non-existent and the forcing will be stronger. If things slow down slightly or initiate a bit earlier, it could be a different story. I don't expect anything along the dryline if the warm sector storms blow up and work over the atmosphere.

Is it April 20th or January 20th?

Friday has somewhat decent potential (finally) for a widespread / non-conditional severe weather threat in DFW.

The reason I'm bullish on Summer 2022 is because by the end of this year, everyone (of all ages) who wants the vaccine would have gotten it and with the weather change, DJF will be the the critical test to see if we experience another surge like we did this past winter. But even then, there may still be some form of travel restrictions to/from a small handful of countries where the health care infrastructure and vaccine distribution remains poor. EDIT: Also, any lawsuits related to COVID spread in shared public spaces will hopefully have been litigated by then, establishing a precedent that businesses can confidently adapt to accordingly. This is just my gut feeling though.