Powerball

And it increasingly appears another high risk area may be issued by the SPC for parts of the same areas tomorrow that were hit last week. It's not often you see 2 high risk days in a season, let alone virtually back-to-back in the same areas.

I know it's a different region, but in addition to the already rare high risk area for today, the SPC has issued a 45% tornado risk area for W. Central AL Apparently, the SPC has only issued this 5 other times in its history.

As rough as the week of 2/15 was (being without power for 2 days straight), it's being able to see stuff like below in February that helps to make up for it. Mesoscale Discussion 0135 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0959 AM CST Sun Feb 28 2021 Areas affected...northeast Texas through southeast Oklahoma and southwest Arkansas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 281559Z - 281730Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to increase in coverage and intensity by late morning into the afternoon. Primary threats will be isolated large hail and damaging wind gusts, though a tornado or two will also be possible. A WW will likely be needed before 17Z. DISCUSSION...As of mid morning a cold front extends from eastern OK through north central and west central TX. An isolated thunderstorm with mid-level updraft rotation has developed on the front and is located just east of Gainesville with another isolated storm near Mineral Wells. The downstream warm sector is already moderately unstable with 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE supported by upper 60s F dewpoints and 7-7.5 C/km mid-level lapse rates. Further destabilization will occur, but will be limited to some degree by widespread multi-layer clouds. Weak, progressive impulses embedded within the southwesterly upper flow regime and forcing along the cold front will contribute to an increase in thunderstorm coverage later this morning as the boundary layer slowly warms. The primary low-level jet has shifted east of this region resulting in small 0-1 km hodographs. However, a belt of strong southwesterly winds increasing to around 70 kt at 500 mb resides above the warm sector and is contributing to 60+ kt effective bulk shear. Therefore, some storms should organize with supercells and bowing segments likely, eventually consolidating into a dominant linear mode. Large hail and isolated damaging wind will be the main threats. The small low-level hodographs should tend to limit overall tornado threat. However, a tornado or two cannot be ruled out. ..Dial/Hart.. 02/28/2021 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN... LAT...LON 32559772 33599665 34899484 34329358 31909679 31859817 32559772

Thanks.

My understanding of the Kuchera method is that it's a somewhat convoluted calculation of moisture content and lift in the DGZ. This is my first time hearing about the 17:1 ratio thing.

Well, the Kuchera maps have been spot on with the snow down here, FWIW. They even pegged the snow amounts in San Antonio and Austin right.

BTW, I would definitely be salty about missing this storm if the EURO ends up correct, lol.

Well damn!!! When's the last time we saw these areas share a widespread 12-15" snowstorm?

Nice looking SREF plumes for DTW.

GRR has finally said they're *considering* upgrading some of their counties to a WSW, lol.

I struggle to remember the last time we've had a gulf low track travel due NNE to western Pennsylvania with good thermals. It was long overdue.

And lol at DTW forecasting 8" of snow for Detroit in 24 hours with a Winter Weather Advisory and winds of 15-25 MPH. I'm convinced they're trolling. EDIT: Never mind. Their AFD says a WSW is forthcoming.

Looks like the total at DFW was 4", which ends its 6-year 4"+ snowstorm drought. This is also the largest "cold" snowstorm DFW has ever seen, with temps in the teens the entire time. The most impressive part is most of that fell in a 2 hour window. And then there's Wednesday, lol. 06z is very close to worthy with over 1" of QPF.

Are you just visiting Florida, or are you there permanently now?

The Kuchera numbers seem to be verifying in OK and TX so far, FWIW...

If current model indications are accurate, I think this is going to be the largest "spread the wealth" storm we've seen in well over a decade.

I mean, latest model trends suggest Metro Detroit could get warning criteria snow out of this. Or does that not count?

It's not often you see the entire state of OK under a Winter Storm Warning, and the entire states of TX/OK/AR under winter weather headlines.

GFS is kind of on its own with that depiction (granted, I'm ok with that since the GFS has apparently been doing quite well this season). The other models aren't nearly as generous, and some of them (NAM and EURO) are doing funky things with the areas of best forcing. That said, a Winter Storm Warning has been issued (yes, 48 hours out) for 3-6" of snow. FWD is using the word "historic." URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 249 PM CST Fri Feb 12 2021 ...HISTORIC WINTER STORM POISED TO IMPACT THE REGION SUNDAY AND MONDAY... Impacts will begin as early as Saturday morning with patchy freezing drizzle developing late tonight into Saturday morning, which will lead to a light glaze of ice in some locations. After a brief break in precipitation on Saturday, conditions will begin to deteriorate late Saturday evening, with precipitation transitioning from a sleet and freezing rain mix to all snow by Sunday. The heaviest snow can be expected on Sunday and Monday. High winds will lead to blowing and drifting snow with wind chills falling to below zero by late Sunday. Snow will come to an end during the day Monday, but extremely cold temperatures will persist through mid-week. The heavy snow and forecast long duration of extremely cold temperatures will likely lead to major stress on the region`s infrastructure as well as crippling travel for several days. TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-130500- /O.UPG.KFWD.WS.A.0002.210214T0600Z-210216T0000Z/ /O.NEW.KFWD.WS.W.0003.210213T1200Z-210216T0000Z/ Montague-Cooke-Grayson-Fannin-Lamar-Young-Jack-Wise-Denton-Collin- Hunt-Delta-Hopkins-Stephens-Palo Pinto-Parker-Tarrant-Dallas- Rockwall-Kaufman-Van Zandt-Rains-Eastland-Erath-Hood-Somervell- Johnson-Ellis-Henderson-Comanche-Mills-Hamilton-Bosque-Hill- Navarro-Freestone-Anderson-Lampasas-Coryell-Bell-McLennan-Falls- Limestone-Leon-Milam-Robertson- Including the cities of Bowie, Nocona, Gainesville, Sherman, Denison, Bonham, Paris, Graham, Olney, Jacksboro, Decatur, Bridgeport, Carrollton, Denton, Lewisville, Flower Mound, Plano, McKinney, Allen, Frisco, Greenville, Commerce, Cooper, Sulphur Springs, Breckenridge, Mineral Wells, Weatherford, Briar, Fort Worth, Arlington, Dallas, Rockwall, Heath, Terrell, Kaufman, Forney, Canton, Grand Saline, Wills Point, Van, Edgewood, Emory, East Tawakoni, Point, Cisco, Eastland, Ranger, Gorman, Stephenville, Dublin, Granbury, Oak Trail Shores, Glen Rose, Cleburne, Burleson, Waxahachie, Ennis, Midlothian, Athens, Gun Barrel City, Comanche, De Leon, Goldthwaite, Hamilton, Hico, Clifton, Meridian, Valley Mills, Hillsboro, Corsicana, Teague, Fairfield, Wortham, Palestine, Lampasas, Copperas Cove, Gatesville, Killeen, Temple, Fort Hood, Waco, Marlin, Mexia, Groesbeck, Buffalo, Centerville, Jewett, Normangee, Oakwood, Cameron, Rockdale, Hearne, Franklin, and Calvert 249 PM CST Fri Feb 12 2021 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM SATURDAY TO 6 PM CST MONDAY... * WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation expected. Total snow accumulations of 3 to 6 inches and ice accumulations of a light glaze. Strong winds will lead to blowing and drifting snow reducing visibility to less than one mile at times. Wind chill factors below zero are forecast on Sunday, continuing into Monday and Tuesday. * WHERE...Much of North and Central Texas. * WHEN...From 6 AM Saturday to 6 PM CST Monday. * IMPACTS...Travel will be dangerous. Hazardous conditions will persist for several days given the expected prolonged duration of extremely cold temperatures. The cold wind chills as low as 15 below zero could result in hypothermia if precautions are not taken. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Travel is highly discouraged on Sunday and Monday. If you must travel, keep tools necessary for survival in extreme cold in your vehicle. The latest road conditions for Texas can be found at drivetexas.org.

I will also leave this here. This is cumulative between Sunday night and Wednesday's storm:

Lake Effect Snow in Texas!? Special Weather StatementNational Weather Service Fort Worth TX1033 AM CST Fri Feb 12 2021TXZ091>095-101>107-116>123-130>134-121830-VanZandt-Rockwall-Somervell-Montague-Dallas-Wise-Kaufman-Hunt-Parker-Lamar-Denton-Grayson-Johnson-Ellis-Hood-PaloPinto-Hopkins-Collin-Rains-Fannin-Jack-Erath-Tarrant-Delta-Cooke-1033 AM CST Fri Feb 12 2021...BRIEF MODERATE SNOW NEAR AREA LAKES IN MONTAGUE...NORTHEASTERNERATH... HOPKINS...RAINS...LAMAR...PALO PINTO...COLLIN...FANNIN...ELLIS... DALLAS...HOOD...VAN ZANDT...DENTON...PARKER...DELTA...ROCKWALL...HUNT...SOMERVELL...KAUFMAN...JOHNSON...WISE...JACK...TARRANT...COOKE AND GRAYSON COUNTIES...At 1030 AM CST, there have been multiple reports of localized lightto moderate snow downstream of area lakes. These areas of snow areusually narrow bands confined to areas near and south of area lakes.Visibility may be reduced to less than 1 mile in snow for briefperiods of time. These rapidly changing conditions could surprisedrivers. Slow down and drive with extreme caution.Conditions can deteriorate rapidly in winter weather situations. Beprepared for snow or ice on roads near lakes. Slow down and allowextra time when traveling.LAT...LON 3369 9635 3389 9594 3388 9531 3296 95313296 9566 3236 9545 3238 9644 3237 96413233 9638 3205 9694 3226 9709 3209 97873247 9805 3252 9858 3347 9842 3347 97983389 9798 3392 9721 3372 9711 3396 9692TIME...MOT...LOC 1627Z 180DEG 0KT 3288 9750$$Dunn

We're under a Winter Storm Watch for 3-7" plus near-blizzard conditions Sunday night/Monday, and then it's looking increasingly likely that we'll see several more inches of snow on Wednesday. Who would have thought Dallas (of all places) would see snow on top of snow, lol.

Temps might not even be overdone. Models are already running several degrees behind with the shallow low-level cold air (we've been stuck in the low/mid 30s). Imagine how much colder it will get with a deep snowpack...

It's not often you see both Dallas and Detroit get crushed with powdery snow from the same storm in mid-February.

I know there was the 10th-11th thread, but besides being a day early, it underplay the potential with the title "potent front/system."