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Powerball

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Everything posted by Powerball

  1. Powerball
    Well anything is possible, but how likely was it really for a 125-year storm to occur, especially with a synoptic mess of a system? Plus, since we've all been tracking weather, how often have we seen storms unravel (slowly or rapidly) before their onset?
  2. Powerball
    That is slightly less bad than the 06z run, fortunately.
  3. Powerball
    1. If you own a home, buy a generator. 2. Find a friend/relative with power to stay with. 3. Stay at a hotel with power.
  4. Powerball
    In all fairness, that's a 10:1 ratio map, so likely somewhat underdone.
  5. Powerball
    GFS might have dialed down the amounts in Collin County on the 06z run, but it also bumped them up drastically for the rest of the Metroplex. I haven't seen the 12z run yet.
  6. Powerball
    BTW, I'm sticking with my preliminary call as final. Widespread 10-15" with isolated higher amounts*. *Besides the areas on the northern and southern edge getting screwed by slight shifts, there could also be a narrow area from far NE Indiana / far NW Ohio into the Detroit area and SW Ontario that gets slightly lower amounts as the better forcing for the 1st round sets up just NW of there and the better forcing for the 2nd round sets up just SE of there.
  7. Powerball
    Of course they say that *AFTER* the models have trended away from such an outcome (thus it seems unlikely)...
  8. Powerball
    There is at least some question about it snowing continuously in many areas. It seems increasingly likely there will be a lull Wednesday night. But I get your point (it's all still one congealed mess of a system), and it's valid even if unpopular.
  9. Powerball
    *ahem*, the proper term is "orientation"...
  10. Powerball
    They had it last February. There are some hotels (though not many) that have backup generators.
  11. Powerball
    I did book a room though. I'm not getting caught without power like I did last time.
  12. Powerball
    FFS. The 06z runs are the worst yet for ice. Widespread 0.50"+ freezing rain across *ALL* THE Metroplex. And that's not including the sleet on top of it. What a ****ing disaster.
  13. Powerball
    You mean it had a shift in orientation.
  14. Powerball
    Pretty decent bump south with the 2nd wave on the 00z GFS.
  15. Powerball
    But somehow, Toronto still makes out quite well with the storm on the 00z RGEM. Yet, Cleveland gets a massive sleet fest.
  16. Powerball
    I think Brian D's original title was more appropiate for this storm.
  17. Powerball
    Maybe not, it hit a wall in Kentucky.
  18. Powerball
    It might be cutting due NNE into Ohio.
  19. Powerball
    2nd wave relatively organized on the RGEM over Memphis (60hr). EDIT: Meant Nashville.
  20. Powerball
    Since someone asked earlier, here's the 00z HRW FV3 through 12z Thursday. It also shows that "lull" between waves like the NAM.
  21. Powerball
    There is certainly the remote possibility that enough spacing between the first and second wave could allow for that 2nd wave to cut to Cincinnati, which would bring back the solution we were seeing a couple days ago.
  22. Powerball
    It did try to finally cut towards the end there, but still too little too late for those on the northern edge.
  23. Powerball
    It makes sense. As the first wave trends beefier, it surpresses heights in its wake that forces the 2nd wave further south, along with the better forcing/moisture.
  24. Powerball
    One trend that seems to be legit is that the models are getting beefier with the amounts from that first round. The 00z NAM continues that trend.
  25. Powerball
    It looks like DFW will be safe from precip between now and Midnight.
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