Powerball

Can't help but feel bad for the mets in Detroit if the bleeding doesn't stop, after what happened with GHD 3.

HRW FV3 is also drier and it bumped south.

00z HRRR is also notably drier.

GHD 3?

The GEM, which needs love too, has also been on the right track for this storm along with the EURO, especially with the drying trend.

Like most severe weather events as of late, this will definitely be a good setup for MS/AL. For TX and OK, it's looking like nothing special.

18z RGEM came in even drier.

Definitely a run for Detroit on the 18z NAM. I'd give it a 2% chance of verifying though.

NW trends aren't really a thing any more. Now it's eveey storm trends SE or to a strung out POS the closer to onset.

It is wetter and a hair further NW. EDIT: Wetter for the eastern areas, that is.

That title is a huge overreaction. BTW, I'm getting ****ing sick of these nighttime setups. That's all we've had in DFW since I've been here.

'MURICA!!!

The upper levels with this systems are definitely more supportive of a further NW/stronger storm than GHD III.

As someone who has suffered through 10 houra of nonstop Sleet and got roughly that exact amount in accumulation, no you don't. I mean, it's better than freezing rain, but only by the slimmest margin.

The NAM.

Oh shit!

Persistent trends die hard.

Putting the weenie in weenie run...

Probably since GHD 1, LMAO!!!

2.5" of combined snow/sleet. Actually were within the bullseye in the Metroplex. There was still plenty of patches left today.

Hilarious. But I had called it (just not to that extent, haha!).

^^^Nailed it!!!

I'm not sure what the synoptic setup was like in the 1880s, but for 1974, the pattern just hasn't been conducive for that type of storm in the central/western Great Lakes. For most of the epic/historic snowstorms in this region (see Buffalo last month for example), they required deep closed upper level lows, a negative tilt trough, no greenland block and a surface low with gulf origins. The closest things came was 2/26/13. But thermals were an issue for that system. Until we can shake up the upper level flow so that it's not so damn uber-progressive, it's going to be awhile.

After a snow/sleet mix for the past 20 minutes, we have finally flipped over to a light snow.

Still getting heavy pingers here. *sigh*