Powerball

That said, I'm still concerned most of the widespread/organized convection will miss DFW just to the south and east.

000 FXUS64 KFWD 230112 AAA AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 812 PM CDT Thu Apr 22 2021 ...New Short Term, Aviation... .SHORT TERM... /NEW/ /Through Friday Night/ The primary weather concern over the next short term forecast period revolves around chances for severe convection across North and Central Texas. Friday will be a day that individuals should monitor the weather closely from a trusted source as severe weather will likely strike quickly. In addition, there will be a risk for areas of fog/drizzle that could reduce visibility down to below 1 mile. Surface analysis in tandem with satellite imagery indicated a conveyor of richer near surface moisture extended from South Texas northwestward toward western reaches of the Hill Country. Ceiling observations in tandem with aircraft data (AMDAR) from Dallas Love Field and our presently ascending 00 UTC weather balloon showed a large amount of dry air from near 5,000 feet toward the surface across North and Central Texas. While the radarscope has slowly continued to illuminate thanks to increased mid-upper level ascent (implied by increasing high clouds), I think we`ll be hard pressed to measure any rainfall over the next 6 to 12 hours thanks to the aformentioned dry air. As a result, I`ve opted for a mention of sprinkles as opposed to rain showers for many areas through 12 UTC Friday, though a few areas may measure south of I-20 and west of US HWY 281 as ceilings fall below 1,000 feet during the pre-dawn hours on Friday. A warm front extended from near Del Rio to Victoria this evening and thanks to observed surface pressure falls between 2-4 mbar over the past several hours, this boundary should have no problem lifting northward tonight. As it does, we`ll see an increased advection fog potential between 3 am and sunrise across western Central Texas and likely our initial shower and thunderstorm development after sunrise Friday. While advective in nature, fog processes may be hindered some as 925mb flow is expected to remain quite turbulence and as a result of this, I`ll omit the mention of "dense" fog from the worded forecast. However, we`ll monitor this potential during the overnight hours. One of the more significant changes made to the forecast (though I`m still very cautious about this) was to delay the wording of "severe" in the zones until the afternoon. Initial glances at some of the hi- res model guidance would suggest that deep convection could fire as early as 15 UTC. However, taking a look at some of the synoptic guidance, it doesn`t appear that appreciable height falls associated with the main PV anomaly currently across western Arizona will not impinge upon our area until closer to 17-18 UTC. Moreover, there`s still a little bit of remnant capping evident in forecast soundings so the potential for surface based convection in the morning looks low at this time. I still show high chance PoPs (50%) through 16 UTC for areas near/southwest of a Jacksboro to Waco to Temple line, but I believe the potential for a larger coverage of severe weather may not occur until Friday afternoon...closer to 18-19 UTC (more in accordance with the NSSL WRF and NCEP WRF ARW core). It`s possible that even this timing may be a little too early. Does that mean that we won`t have severe weather across our area in the morning? NO! In fact, IF elevated convection gets going along the northward lifting warm front, it`ll certainly have a large hail potential given 0-6km bulk wind differences of 50 knots and 700-500mb lapse rates closer to 8 C/km. Because this activity is expected to be elevated, I believe the damaging wind and tornado threat will be low. Any surface based storm near the warm front, however, will need to be monitored closely for a damaging wind and/or tornado threat! As stronger forcing for ascent emerges from the west, I do believe that both newly formed and any ongoing convection will strengthen very, very quickly. While widespread cloud cover will likely dampen what would otherwise be much higher instability values, CAPE is still progged to average out to around 2000 J/kg across our area in a strongly sheared environment (supportive of supercellular structures). Forecast soundings suggest that the high shear and steep lapse rates would facilitate large to potentially significant hail sizes (2+ in diameter), along with damaging winds. 0-1 km shear values from hi-res guidance suggest that these values will be maximized to the south and east of the Metroplex, and thus I would anticipate a greater tornado risk here. However, low level SRH may also increase farther north across Northeast Texas (near and east of US HWY 75) depending on where the frontal boundary stalls and any storm interacting with the warm front (or any additional boundary) will have an enhanced wind and tornado threat. Storms will likely exit East Texas between 03-06 UTC, but the dryline appears that it`ll lag back to the west. A cold front is expected to crash southward from Oklahoma Friday night and normally this would present another opportunity for additional convection to fire. However, we`ll be on the subsident side of the upper trough and this will likely suppress any deep convection. However, they`ll likely be attempts along the boundary and if an updrafts can realize what should still be unstable air, there could be a brief strong to severe weather threat after midnight. Bain

No changes in the latest update to the SPC's Day 2 Outlook.

We're going to need that trough to slow down (like the 00z GFS / GGEM / EURO show) for things to work out along a ICT-OKC-DFW line. Otherwise, we're looking at yet another Dixie Alley special. Unfortunately, models seem to underestimate how progressive the upper flow is in the medium/long term, so I'm skeptical they won't trend faster as we get closer in. But it's definitely the best looking potential we've had all season, FWIW.

At this point, it's looking like (per usual) the widespread convection tomorrow will be just east of DFW. But it's a much closer call than we've had all season. CINH looks to be non-existent and the forcing will be stronger. If things slow down slightly or initiate a bit earlier, it could be a different story. I don't expect anything along the dryline if the warm sector storms blow up and work over the atmosphere.

Is it April 20th or January 20th?

Friday has somewhat decent potential (finally) for a widespread / non-conditional severe weather threat in DFW.

The reason I'm bullish on Summer 2022 is because by the end of this year, everyone (of all ages) who wants the vaccine would have gotten it and with the weather change, DJF will be the the critical test to see if we experience another surge like we did this past winter. But even then, there may still be some form of travel restrictions to/from a small handful of countries where the health care infrastructure and vaccine distribution remains poor. EDIT: Also, any lawsuits related to COVID spread in shared public spaces will hopefully have been litigated by then, establishing a precedent that businesses can confidently adapt to accordingly. This is just my gut feeling though.

Summer 2022 is definitely a good possibility, IMO.

You're assuming that: 1. The vaccines fully protects against all variants 2. You still can't catch the virus (even with less severe symptoms) and spread it. The scientific community has made it clear that #2 is still possible (especially since not everyone has been vaccinated) and #1 is still unknown. Like I said earlier, we'll just have to pack our patience for a return to "normal." It's not going to happen overnight.

While the rise in US cases might have slowed for now, many countries are experiencing a renewed surge in the virus (including other newly discovered variants) that has the WHO concerned about a global surge in cases and deaths This is the best move by the U.S. government to minimize the risk that whatever variants are causing headaches in these other countries make it into US borders. https://www.cnn.com/2021/04/20/europe/who-global-covid-cases-rise-intl/index.html

U.S. State Department says it will boost ‘Do Not Travel’ advisories to 80% of the world https://www.cnbc.com/2021/04/20/us-plans-to-boost-do-not-travel-advisories-to-80percent-of-the-world.html

New York City Movie Theaters Can Expand Capacity to 33% https://variety.com/2021/film/news/new-york-city-movie-theaters-capacity-pandemic-1234954774/

California Boosts Indoor Event Capacity to 75% in Some Areas https://variety.com/2021/music/news/california-event-capacity-limit-concerts-1234954973/

Connecticut to lift all COVID-19 business restrictions, except masking, on May 19 https://www.courant.com/coronavirus/hc-news-coronavirus-daily-updates-0419-20210419-7b5k47ujrnbq5n7wfjt7kyktym-story.html

I agree. Correct. So far, I think the only other states to formally regulate this are Texas and Florida (I could be mistaken), although the governor of Georgia has gone on record to say he's philosophically not in favor of passports.

Governor Ducey issues executive order banning vaccine passports in Arizona https://www.azfamily.com/news/continuing_coverage/coronavirus_coverage/governor-ducey-issues-executive-order-banning-vaccine-passports-in-arizona/article_a454daf8-a131-11eb-9f07-e75827900d8b.html

Jitters, excitement and elbow bumps as Chicago Public high schools reopen after 13-month shutdown: ‘This is long overdue — the first day of school in April’ https://www.chicagotribune.com/coronavirus/ct-cps-high-schools-reopen-first-day-covid-20210419-r76ohmolxrgvpeypqnuuyqebay-story.html

Yes it is vague, because a literal interpretation of "below 10K" could mean anywhere from 0 cases to 9,999 cases per day (massive range). At least saying "well below 10K" can be interpreted to mean the number would not be near the high end of that range.

And just saying "below 10K" is even more vague. That said, everyone's entitled to their own opinion (right or wrong) about the data. I just think we're best served if we don't misquote what other scientific experts say, like some have been doing.

For those who aren't aware, this is the first day that adults of all ages in every state are eligible to schedule appointments for their vaccination. https://www.nytimes.com/2021/04/19/world/adults-eligible-covid-vaccine.html

I see some people are still misconstruing what Dr. Fauci actually said. To be clear, what he said was: 1. New infections need to fall not just below 10K cases per day, but *WELL* below 10K cases per day. 2. Once new cases per day are *WELL* below 10K, there could be a *GRADUAL* pull back of *SOME* restrictions. He also stressed that the nation till has a lot of work to do before it reaches that point. For those who want to read his actual words that were quoted, see the link below: https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/fauci-clashes-gop-lawmaker-covid-restrictions-eased/story?id=77097089

25% of Americans fully vaccinated against coronavirus, CDC says https://www.cnn.com/2021/04/18/health/us-coronavirus-sunday/index.html

There are still places within the US in the midst of a surge. Plus, the scientific community still doesn't know what effects (if any) emerging variants will have going forward. https://scitechdaily.com/new-covid-variants-have-changed-the-game-and-vaccines-will-not-be-enough/ So say "next week starts the permanent turn down" is premature and presumptuous

Whitmer: State won't close down again following GOP lawsuits https://thehill.com/homenews/sunday-talk-shows/548888-whitmer-state-wont-close-down-again-following-gop-lawsuits