Powerball

Someone earlier in this thread from (I think) Elgin reported snow was mixing in. EDIT: As the poster confirmed below, it was actually Galesburg.

ILC143-020442- BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED Civil Danger Warning IL Peoria County Relayed by National Weather Service Lincoln IL 442 PM CST Tue Feb 1 2022 ...Civil Danger Warning... The following message is transmitted at the request of Peoria County. ...This message is being issued for residents of the City of Peoria. A city-wide parking ban is in effect from 6pm February 1st through 6pm February 3. Residents must move their vehicles from all City streets to allow for plows and emergency vehicles. Alternative parking locations include the south parking lot of Northwoods Mall... 2200 West War Memorial Drive... Twin Towers Parking Garage... 123 South West Jefferson St... Niagara Parking Garage... 109 West Adams Street... and the Jefferson Parking Garage... 236 South West Jefferson Street. Parking is free in these locations until 8 am on Saturday February 5. Do not park in the alleys. Any cars left on the streets are subject to towing and tickets. During this snow event... residents are asked to stay home for their safety and to let snowplow drivers and emergency vehicles work. REPEAT- A City-Wide parking ban is in effect for the City of Peoria starting at 6pm this evening. For more information... call 494 CARE Monday-Friday from 8 to 6 and Saturday from 9 to 1... $$

21z RAP was slightly NW/stronger with the 2nd wave.

18z GFS showed an increase in the ice amounts for everywhere except Collin County (where it's about the same).

Dorsn't look like much changed on the 18z GFS with the 2nd wave.

@michsnowfreak It's definitely a solid storm for sure. But it's not the worth the travel expense for me. I was mainly in it for the historical possibility. Intuitively, I knew it was a long shot, but the fact that the GFS was pretty consistent for a while had me intrigued.

I'm surprised no one has speculated (another oldie for goodie) whether it will be hard for the snow to accumulate at first because of the wet ground.

Unless that 12z GFS run from 1/29 miraculously comes back, I'm good. I already have my hotel room booked in case of a power outage here with the ice storm.

Ah, I see. I would be flying out of DFW (can choose either American or Delta), so it wouldn't be a problem for me.

There's still the red eye, if things suddenly trend to the unlikely.

Hi-Res gonna Hi-Res. But I'll eat crow if they end up sniffing out a last second NW trend with the 2nd wave.

The 18z does show more ice for Collin/Denton counties, but in fact it shows less for everywhere else. That said, it's still a significant amount of ice (0.50"+).

True, but when you compare the 18z HRRR with the 12z HRRR run, there was a significant increase in ice amounts (widespread 0.50"+ amounts in the northern/eastern suburbs, and widespread 0.25"+ amounts elsewhere).

I saw that post But even if all of the upper level ingredients did come together, there was in all likelihood going to be issues on a mesoscale level that the global models wouldn't pick up on until we were near the onset that would prevent such an extreme outcome (such as moisture transport being disrupted, wake subsidence from each of the subtle shortwaves, and the best area of forcing being a lot more narrow/transitory, etc.). I mean, the idea (according to the late last week / weekend model runs) was there would be a 1000-mile long conveyor belt of moderate/heavy snow over 100 miles in width that lasted 36 hours in any one location. It seems too good to be true when I put it that way.

@Baum There it is! Just like old times. (just messing with you michsnowfreak)

Well anything is possible, but how likely was it really for a 125-year storm to occur, especially with a synoptic mess of a system? Plus, since we've all been tracking weather, how often have we seen storms unravel (slowly or rapidly) before their onset?

That is slightly less bad than the 06z run, fortunately.

1. If you own a home, buy a generator. 2. Find a friend/relative with power to stay with. 3. Stay at a hotel with power.

In all fairness, that's a 10:1 ratio map, so likely somewhat underdone.

GFS might have dialed down the amounts in Collin County on the 06z run, but it also bumped them up drastically for the rest of the Metroplex. I haven't seen the 12z run yet.

BTW, I'm sticking with my preliminary call as final. Widespread 10-15" with isolated higher amounts*. *Besides the areas on the northern and southern edge getting screwed by slight shifts, there could also be a narrow area from far NE Indiana / far NW Ohio into the Detroit area and SW Ontario that gets slightly lower amounts as the better forcing for the 1st round sets up just NW of there and the better forcing for the 2nd round sets up just SE of there.

Of course they say that *AFTER* the models have trended away from such an outcome (thus it seems unlikely)...

There is at least some question about it snowing continuously in many areas. It seems increasingly likely there will be a lull Wednesday night. But I get your point (it's all still one congealed mess of a system), and it's valid even if unpopular.

*ahem*, the proper term is "orientation"...

They had it last February. There are some hotels (though not many) that have backup generators.