Powerball
-
Posts
14,299 -
Joined
-
Last visited
Content Type
Profiles
Blogs
Forums
American Weather
Media Demo
Store
Gallery
Everything posted by Powerball
-
I've been to Springdale once and met a few people there through my work. It was a cute, prosperous, bustling little town. It definitely sucks to see this. Hopefully they'll have a smooth and speedy recovery. -
Texas/Oklahoma Discussion & Obs Thread 2022
Powerball replied to It's Always Sunny's topic in Central/Western States
It's a whopping 94*F at DFW now. Definitely exceeded my expectations. Also 2 degrees shy of the record high, BTW. -
Texas/Oklahoma Discussion & Obs Thread 2022
Powerball replied to It's Always Sunny's topic in Central/Western States
For DFW, it seems December alone was so extremely warm that it helped the entire 2021-2022 winter crack the top 10 warmest list (#10 specifically), even with January only around average and February well below average. -
Texas/Oklahoma Discussion & Obs Thread 2022
Powerball replied to It's Always Sunny's topic in Central/Western States
After a high of 86*F today, DFW could see its first 90*F+ day of the year tomorrow. The trees are exploding with leaves & buds too. -
Texas/Oklahoma Discussion & Obs Thread 2022
Powerball replied to It's Always Sunny's topic in Central/Western States
A preliminary look at next Tuesday suggests it could be another good setup for severe weather, this time not only in Texas but also further north into OK. -
What's standing out with this particular event is how these tornadoes are seemingly taken aim at all of these different population centers. Even DFW had 2 weaker tornadoes confirmed.
-
Meanwhile, in textbook "Spring in Texas" fashion, there's currently a blizzard ongoing in the Panhandle.
-
Just to clarify, it was just a few pea to dime sized hail stones mixed in with the rain. Lasted no more than a minute.
-
Sick looking shelf cloud, but no sign of a funnel so far.
-
Addison just activated its sirens.
-
Starting to get peeks of sun here...
-
Those storm are pretty far removed from the surface-based instability. For now, they should only pose a hail threat. That said, they seem to be forming off the nose of the LLJ along the prefrontal trough.
-
They added a 15% tornado area around College Station, as well as a decent sized 45% hatched wind area.
-
You can also see their skepticism about the threat levels up towards DFW (for understandable reasons). That said, can't argue against the model trends either.
-
It's a weak cap that's been show from time to time on the NAM and other hi-res models (-25 to -50 J/KG of CINH), which isn't much, but it could be just enough to keep storm development along the dry line from getting too intense as the better dynamics with the LLJ will have shifted to the NE.
-
Yep. The only thing that has been retracted somewhat back to the SE is the 30% wind area, which makes sense. With the cool surface temps and the storms not organizing into a QLCS until east of here, that was always a relatively lower threat.
-
Parameter-wise and synoptically, 00z NAM was similar to the 00z HRRR. The big difference that the NAM maintain a relatively stout cap, which keeps convective coverage/intensity in check.
-
Day 1 Enchanced Riak Area was expanded just far enough NW to technically include Fort Worth and Dallas proper, but they stoped just short of including the entire Metroplex. And this was mainly for the wind threat. Location of other probabilities didn't really change, expect the hail threat area taking a bit more of a NW to SE orientation.
-
The radar's already been posted above. Here's the sounding:
-
00z HRRR is really ominous for DFW tomorrow evening, including a PDS Tornado sounding.
-
At least for this sub, it's yet another messy setup. Not to mention, a lot of the regular posters here are in DFW, which is NW of the highest risk area. 2022 definitely seems to be starting right where 2021 left off, though.
-
18z RAP also has a similar sounding to the 12z NAM for DFW Monday evening. But again, still a weak cap with the best forcing/dynamics just to the east.
