Powerball

This season has been pretty awful for Tornado Alley as well. Most of those reports in KS happened on Wednesday, and notice the complete dearth of tornado reports in OK. There were the 2 weak rain-wrapped tornadoes that hit north Dallas last week, but aside from that, there have been no damaging wind reports this season and barely a handful of large hail reports (none of which IMBY, I might add) in the immediate DFW Metroplex.

Since when have Alabama and Mississippi been desirable?

This was the 18z sounding from OKC. Not the most impressive (especially not for tornadoes).

As of 3pm, today marks the 4th 90*F day of the year at DFW. It's going to be the last one for a while, unfortunately.

^^^2021 in a nutshell.

What a difference a day with plenty of late May sunlight makes! DFW is overachieving by a few degrees and has made it to 90*F (3rd for the year). About got damn time... Unfortunately, it won't last long.

In an unusual twist, I see DET was notably warmer than DTW today. DET reached a high of 91*F and DTW only reached a high of 88*F. That said, as far as I can tell, there's still been no official 90*F+ day yet at DTW for this year.

Right on the money.

If May 2021 ended today in DFW, it would tie for the 14th coldest on record (with an average of 70.5*F). And given the current forecast, there is a reasonable possibility it can still end up a top 20 coldest when it's over.

Well, from a flooding standpoint, the good news is that CAMs models are rather unimpressive looking over the next 48 hours for DFW. It's messy, but the organized convection manages to do a hop, skip and jump over the region between the poor timing and the outflow boundaries, which is the nature of how things work with mesoscale complexes. The CAMs aren't perfect though. We'll see how right they are.

Well this would be an interesting outcome (note the time of day)...

Although the cell was tornado warned, it seems they're calling it high winds for now.

This is gold:

000 NWUS54 KFWD 162004 LSRFWD PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX 304 PM CDT SUN MAY 16 2021 ..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON... ..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.... ..REMARKS.. 1115 AM TORNADO 5 WNW TROY 31.23N 97.38W 05/16/2021 BELL TX EMERGENCY MNGR SEVERAL HOMES SUSTAINED MINOR DAMAGE FROM A BRIEF TORNADO ALONG WILLOW GROVE RD BETWEEN MOODY RD AND FRANKLIN RD. SOME OUTBUILDINGS AND CHICKEN COOPS DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. TIME ESTIMATED FROM RADAR. && $$

Actually getting a good peak of the sun now.

SPC has upgraded much of the DFW Metroplex to a Slight Risk, with a 5% chance of a tornado... SPC AC 161951 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0251 PM CDT Sun May 16 2021 Valid 162000Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND PORTIONS OF NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong/severe thunderstorms are once again expected across portions of the central and southern Plains late this afternoon and evening. Large hail and severe wind gusts are the most likely risks. Tornado probabilities have been increased to 5%/Slight Risk in parts of north-central Texas, including the DFW metro area. Earlier this afternoon, a few weak/brief circulations were noted on KFWS radar along with reported brief touchdowns with the most organized storm now in Ellis County. Current radar imagery continues to suggest some potential for this activity to continue for a few hours. TDFW and TDAL VWP data continue to show semi-enlarged low-level hodographs. A couple storms, should they organize, west/south of the metro area may see similar potential for a brief/weak tornado given some heating ahead of that activity. Elsewhere, the outlook remains unchanged.

Flood Advisory National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 245 PM CDT Sun May 16 2021 TXC085-162245- /O.NEW.KFWD.FA.Y.0019.210516T1945Z-210516T2245Z/ /00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ Collin TX- 245 PM CDT Sun May 16 2021 The National Weather Service in Fort Worth has issued a * Urban and Small Stream Flood Advisory for Poor Drainage Areas for... Southwestern Collin County in north central Texas... * Until 545 PM CDT. * At 245 PM CDT, Doppler radar indicated heavy rain due to thunderstorms. This will cause urban and small stream flooding. Areas that are low lying or poor drainage areas will experience minor flooding in the advisory area. Some locations that will experience flooding include... Plano, Garland, McKinney, Carrollton, Frisco, Richardson, Allen, Wylie, Sachse, Murphy, Fairview, Princeton, Lucas, Parker, Lowry Crossing, St. Paul and New Hope. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Excessive runoff from heavy rainfall will cause flooding of small creeks and streams, urban areas, highways, streets, and underpasses as well as other drainage areas and low lying spots. && LAT...LON 3304 9684 3315 9684 3325 9665 3318 9645 3297 9655 3299 9684 3300 9684 3301 9684 3302 9684 3303 9684 $$ TR.92

Pretty impressive swath of 3"+ rain across NW Dallas County. I'm interested to see what the rainfaill total will be out of Love Field (maybe upwards of 7"?). It seems to be the bullseye.

They were playing up until now, but now play has been suspended. Good news is that they're in the final round and the Tornado Warning has been cancelled.

BTW, the Byron Nelson (PGA Tournament) is currently taking place in McKinney, TX. Not sure if there's a delay though.

Oh my... Tornado Warning TXC113-161945- /O.NEW.KFWD.TO.W.0019.210516T1908Z-210516T1945Z/ BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED Tornado Warning National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 208 PM CDT Sun May 16 2021 The National Weather Service in Fort Worth has issued a * Tornado Warning for... North central Dallas County in north central Texas... * Until 245 PM CDT. * At 208 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado was located near University Park, moving northeast at 30 mph. HAZARD...Tornado. SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation. IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is likely. * This dangerous storm will be near... Garland around 225 PM CDT. Richardson around 230 PM CDT. Other locations impacted by this tornadic thunderstorm include Buckingham. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... TAKE COVER NOW! Move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying debris. && LAT...LON 3298 9664 3285 9677 3289 9682 3299 9680 3299 9675 TIME...MOT...LOC 1908Z 208DEG 25KT 3289 9677 TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED HAIL...<.75IN $$ 92

Radar indicates a band of 5-7" of rain in west and northwest Dallas.

Excessive Rainfall Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 1121 AM EDT Sun May 16 2021 Day 1 Valid 12Z Sun May 16 2021 - 12Z Mon May 17 2021 ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS AND ALONG THE WESTERN GULF COAST... 1600 UTC update Only some minor changes made to the previous Excessive Rainfall Outlook. The slight risk over northeast Kansas was extended farther to the southwest to cover lower ffg values from overnight heavy rains. The slight risk over south central Oklahoma was extended into southeast Oklahoma after viewing new 1200 UTC hi res guidance. The marginal and slight risk areas over South Texas were also extended slightly farther south for current radar trends. See WPC's mesoscale precipitation discussions #0179 valid until 1740 UTC and #0180 valid until 1914 UTC for addition information across northeast Kansas and South Texas. Oravec 0900 UTC discussion ...Central Plains to the Mid Mississippi Valley... Ongoing convection across portions of Kansas is forecast to continue to shift east during the morning hours, with weakening expected as it moves into western Missouri during the late morning and early afternoon hours. Redevelopment is expected however by late afternoon and continuing into the evening with the return of daytime heating and persistent southerly flow into a slow-moving boundary extending across Kansas and northern Missouri. Recent runs of the RAP and NAM show PWs approaching 1.5 inches by the afternoon along the leading edge of southwesterly low level inflow into the boundary across northern Missouri. This along with slow-moving, mid-level energy is expected to support the development of heavy rains. Slow-cell movement along with the potential for training will raise the potential for heavy accumulations and the threat for localized runoff concerns. The 00Z HREF neighborhood probabilities (40km) for accumulations of 2-inches or more are well-above 50 percent within the Slight Risk area, with some high probabilities for 3-inches or more across portions of central Missouri. ...Southern Oklahoma to Central Texas... Waning convection moving east of the Texas Panhandle this morning is expected to redevelop farther east as a weak mid-level shortwave interacts with an plume of deeper moisture (PWs 1.5-2 inches) spreading north along an axis of 20-40 kt winds. With the return of daytime heating, heavy rains are expected to return, with the 00Z HREF indicating high neighborhood probabilities for accumulations of 2-inches or more during the afternoon hours. This convection is expected to propagate east of the Slight Risk area by the evening hours; however, some models show upstream convection developing over the High Plains propagating southeast back into the region overnight. ...Middle and Upper Texas Coast... Mid-level energy interacting with persistent onshore flow and PWs of 1.75-2+ inches is expected to support the development of slow-moving heavy rains during the day. While confidence in the details is limited, the hi-res guidance shows a good signal for locally heavy amounts along the Middle Texas coast developing later this morning, with the HREF showing high probabilities for local accumulations of 3-inches or more. Convection is expected to progress more steadily to the east during the day, however some models show heavy accumulations making it farther east along the Upper Texas Coast, including the Houston metro, during the afternoon. ...Central Rockies into the High Plains... Convection is expected to develop once again along the Colorado and New Mexico high terrain during the late afternoon/evening hours. Locally heavy amounts developing may result in short-term runoff problems over the eastern Colorado high terrain, especially across burn scar areas, before propagating east into the High Plains. Pereira Day 1 threat area: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/94epoints.txt

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0181 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 1216 PM EDT Sun May 16 2021 Areas affected...East-Central Oklahoma through North Texas Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible Valid 161615Z - 162115Z Summary...Potential for flash-flooding this afternoon along a moisture/instability axis extending from North Texas into east-central Oklahoma. Discussion...A mid-level impulse is lifting northeast through central OK with an axis of moisture/instability extending north from south TX ahead of this wave. Scattered thunderstorms have developed in this axis over North Texas with recent max one hour rainfall estimates from KFWS of 1.5 to locally 2" over the I-35 corridor including the Dallas metro. PWs of 1.6" to 1.7" will continue to be reinforced by 25kt southerly 850mb flow with SBCAPE of 500 to 1000 J/Kg. 1hr FFG is lower through the Dallas metro/along I-35E (between 2.0" and 2.5"/hr) where the greater moisture is present. Farther north in east-central OK are PWs around 1.5" and 1hr FFG is generally just above 2.5"/hr. However, the mid-level circulation should continue to allow some longer residence time for moderate to heavy rain, making for a similar isolated flash flood in parts of central OK to North TX this afternoon. Jackson ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...TSA... ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...LMRFC...WGRFC...NWC... LAT...LON 36149685 35659572 32829579 31379606 30989647 31009701 31079741 31539761 32049748 32489727 33239725 33739720 34329769 34509844 35479778