Powerball

Yep. It was close, but the pereistent stratuocumulus field since early afternoon has kept surface temps in check. If anything, per the latest SPC mesoanalysis, the cap has strengthened a bit more.

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0555 PM CDT Thu Mar 17 2022 Areas affected...North TX Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 48... Valid 172255Z - 180030Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 48 continues. SUMMARY...A few strong to severe thunderstorms may develop across North TX over the next several hours. DISCUSSION...Recent visible satellite imagery shows increasingly agitated cumulus along the dryline moving into north TX. Forecast soundings in much of this region continue to show warm temperatures aloft, supporting convective inhibition. Most recent mesoanalysis estimates MLCIN is around -25 to -50 J/kg. Recent ACARS soundings from DAL also continue to show capping, with MLCIN around -30 to -35 J/kg. Even so, convergence along the boundary is quite strong and moisture advection continue in the downstream environment. Dewpoints have increased along the I-35 corridor 3-4 degrees over the past 3 hours. Given these improving thermodynamics and persistent low-level convergence, the potential exists for a few deeper, more sustained updrafts. Wind profiles show strong low-level veering but a pronounced weakness in the mid-levels. As a result, storm organization will likely be somewhat limited. Even so, a few strong to severe storms are possible and watch expansion southward may need to be considered soon. ..Mosier.. 03/17/2022 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN... LAT...LON 32549661 32149693 31979742 32049779 32289802 32649800 32729801 33239798 33699796 33859768 33839718 33769677 33599660 33289651 32549661

Seeing returns starting to blossom out of that CU field and the cap now looking pretty weak, I'm now feeling a bit more optimistic about activity in the Metroplex 1-2 hours from now. That said, depending on the extent of southward development, any activity may still skirt by to the NW of the heart of DFW as it rotates around the shortwave.

A decent looking CU field has formed along a line out near Eastland down to Brownwood. If there's any initiation this far south (still questionable), that's where it would be.

12z runs are a bit more progressive with the trough, and have shifted the threat more into East TX and Western LA. We'll see if that's the start of a trend, although models have a tendency to be too quick with cut off ULLs. On a mesoscale level, past history suggests that when you have such a messy cloud cover/precipitation activity early in the day (as the models are depicting for Monday morning), the better risk areas are outflow driven and forced further to the SE than the synoptic setup would suggest So my preliminary thinking is that the Metroplex may yet again avoid the more significant activity. Today being a near-miss to the NE and Monday being a near-miss to the SE.

Lapse rates are looking pretty poor on Monday. Seems more like a heavy rain vs severe setup.

Got anothet shot at severe weather Thursday evening, although yet again, best chance will be just to the east of the Metroplex. The Marginal Risk area has been upgraded to a Slight Risk area, mainly for hail.

Did finally get in on a back-end storm. Had a few dime-size hailstones mixed in with the rain.

Congrats to those who did get in on some action. Other than a few raindrops and an occasional distant rumble of thunder, we've had zilch here. Something could still happen, but I suspect the storms in every which direction but here have worked over the atmosphere too much. 2022 starting off just like 2021!

Most of the activity north of I-30 is struggling, although the cell over Lewisville is really trying. Just got some thunder from it.

Yep. It's looking like it might be a miss here, yet again.

CU's still looks flat and underwhelming. FWD opted instead for a Severe Thunderstorm Watch, but only for the eastern half of the Metroplex.

FWD has knocked PoPs back down to around 40-50%. That said, CU field is filling back in after a brief break.

Mesoscale Discussion 0253 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0237 PM CDT Mon Mar 14 2022 Areas affected...Parts of north-central/northeast Texas and southeastern Oklahoma Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 141937Z - 142100Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...The risk for large hail, damaging wind gusts, and a tornado or two should develop between 21Z-23Z. Watch issuance is likely in the next couple hours. DISCUSSION...Latest water vapor imagery depicts an upper-level trough moving eastward across the southern Plains, with an accompanying midlevel speed maximum moving through the base of the trough. Over the next couple hours, increasing forcing for ascent preceding the trough will overspread a destabilizing air mass across parts of north-central/northeast Texas and southeastern Oklahoma. Here, latest surface observations show southerly surface winds and dewpoints in the lower/middle 50s ahead of a surface trough/dryline feature. Visible satellite imagery shows increasingly agitated cumulus fields developing across the warm sector, where surface pressure falls are evident. Convection should initiate between 21Z-23Z along/ahead of the surface trough/dryline, and move eastward into the destabilizing air mass characterized by MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg. As the trough continues eastward, deep-layer shear will gradually increase to 40-50 knots, with effective SRH of 150-200 m2/s2. Initial convection may remain somewhat discrete, and steepening midlevel lapse rates combined with the favorable deep-layer shear should support large hail and perhaps a tornado or two. With time, forcing for ascent will increase as a cold front approaches from the west, favoring upscale growth and a greater risk of wind damage and embedded tornadoes with eastward extent. ..Weinman/Mosier.. 03/14/2022 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...SHV...TSA...HGX...FWD...OUN...EWX... LAT...LON 31489514 31209567 30319702 30569749 31659741 32469734 33309725 33939664 34309574 34209466 33799443 33429424 32989416 32149414 31839425 31619463 31489514

Maybe, depending on how the radar looks this evening. Hi-Res models are now back to holding off intitiation until just east of DFW. *sigh*

FWD has bumped evening PoPs up to 70-80%

Latest SPC has all of the eastern half of the Metroplex under a 5% tornado risk, 15% wind risk and hatched 15% hail risk. We'll see...

FWD has bumped up PoPs to 40-50%.

Tomorrow could be an interesting day. DFW is under a slight risk for severe weather and FWD has added the severe wording to the grids east of I-35E. That said, the higher severe probabilities us just east of here and the grids only have a 20-30% chance of precipitation.

Much of DFW and Western Oklahoma is now under extreme drought conditions. There's been some relief in other parts of Northern/Western Texas with the numerous winter weather events since early February, but current model projections suggests it will worsen. Certainly not good as we head into the warm season.

Another bullet dodged, thank god. Hopefully now, we can finally move on to a Spring and a (for once, active) severe weather season.

It increasingy appears DFW largely dodged a bullet, and for that I say thank god.

If there's a god, last night and 2/16 better not be a sign of the lackluster severe weather season to come for the immediate Metroplex (ala 2021 redux), with everything skirting by just to the south / east / west / north and all of the setups being in the nighttime *AGAIN*.

That's spread the BS.

It's crazy that the squall line is still going strong into PA and NY. Might even make it to Philly and NYC later today.