Powerball

Well I guess the MCS didn't weaken as fast as I thought, lol. Waking up to a decent line of non-severe t'storms

Clouds yet again cleared out around noon and today's high at DFW was 94*F

Not anymore. The eastern part of the complex has shown signs of weakening, and the stronger cells on the SW end of the complex have latched on to the N-S theta-e gradient through eastern KS and OK.

Archive radar indicates the stronger cells split to the north and south of the city.

Well that didn't take long. Hi-Res models have a MCS diving southward through DFW early tomorrow morning. Naturally, there can only be one outcome (decaying stratiform rain then socked in cloud debris for Saturday).

BTW, ^^^this was the first day since 5/27 (13 days) with an observed high that was actually above average (currentlyb91*F).

DFW snuck up to a very late day high of 93*F after the clouds finally broke out between 4pm and 5pm.

After crawling to 89*F over BKN sky cover, the stratus deck has *THICKENED* and the temp has fallen back down to 86*F.

I'm tempted to make a complaint thread. My posts about Dallas' weather alone would fill it up, lol.

What's also crazy about that is that the typically cooler DET has hit 90*F+ at least twice this year (including yesterday)

Per usual for this season, Dallas still can't even do strong/severe t'storms right...

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0280 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 1128 PM EDT Sat Jun 05 2021 Areas affected...Northeast Texas...Far Southern Oklahoma Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible Valid 060328Z - 060700Z Summary...Isolated flash flooding may continue across portions of North Texas and far southern Oklahoma through the early overnight hours with rainfall rates as high as 2-3"/hr. Discussion...Deep convection is expanding across portions of northeastern Texas late this evening, amid a highly favorable mesoscale environment for heavy rainfall (as well as relatively slow storm motions). SPC mesoscale analysis indicates MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg, PWATS of 1.7-1.8 inches (above the 90th percentile for FWD), and effective bulk shear of near 20 kts. In addition, the placement of a synoptic scale upper-level low over central TX is providing a fair amount of divergence/diffluence aloft. These factors, along with a weak low-level jet (20 kts) and modest 925-850 mb moisture transport, should continue to foster upscale growth of convection over the next several hours. The just in 00z HREF suite also suggests that convection will be able to continue to proliferate through 06z. The probability matched mean (PMM) QPF suggests an additional 2-3" is possible over a fairly broad area over northeastern Dallas and points northeastward (toward far southern Oklahoma). The current convective trends bear this out, as radar and satellite imagery depict continued storm mergers and outflow enhanced convergence over an analyzed region of deep moisture convergence. 00z HREF 40-km neighborhood probabilities suggest a 30% chance of 3-inch exceedance over the next several hours. This 3-inch exceedance has already been realized just north of Dallas (near Allen, TX), according to dual-pol radar estimates via KFWS (as well as MRMS 3-hr QPF through 03z) which depicts an area where 5+ inches of rain has already fallen. Hydrologically, much of the surrounding area is already relatively saturated, as NASA SPoRT-LIS soil moisture percentiles average above the 70th percentile. Given these latest convective trends, the 00z CAM output, and antecedent soil conditions, flash flooding will continue to be possible through 07z. Of particular concern is the prospect of convection backward-propagating farther into the Dallas-Fort Worth metro area, given the relatively slow storm motions and high rainfall rates. Churchill ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SHV...TSA... ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...LMRFC...WGRFC...NWC... LAT...LON 34419564 33729483 33089509 32539528 32259549 32669634 32599722 33119720 33639707 33909665 34369628

Flash Flood Warning TXC113-060730- /O.NEW.KFWD.FF.W.0013.210606T0429Z-210606T0730Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED Flash Flood Warning National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 1129 PM CDT Sat Jun 5 2021 The National Weather Service in Fort Worth has issued a * Flash Flood Warning for... Northern Dallas County in north central Texas... * Until 230 AM CDT. * At 1129 PM CDT, Doppler radar and automated rain gauges indicated slow moving thunderstorms producing very heavy rain across Northern Dallas County including White Rock Lake. Between 2 and 4 inches of rain have fallen. Additional rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches are possible. Flash flooding is ongoing or expected to begin shortly. HAZARD...Flash flooding caused by thunderstorms. SOURCE...Radar and automated gauges. IMPACT...Flooding of small creeks and streams, urban areas, highways, streets, and underpasses as well as other poor drainage and low lying areas. * Some locations that will experience flash flooding include... Dallas, Garland, Irving, Coppell, Farmers Branch, University Park, Sachse, Addison and Buckingham. Interstate 635, the Dallas North Tollway, Interstate 35E, and Highway 75 may all experience urban flooding. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Be aware of your surroundings and do not drive on flooded roads. Be especially cautious at night when it is harder to recognize the dangers of flooding. && LAT...LON 3298 9661 3280 9661 3280 9673 3285 9676 3286 9696 3299 9694 FLASH FLOOD...RADAR AND GAUGE INDICATED $$ Dunn

Too early indeed.

The 180hr+ GFS has been teasing that elusive 591 to 594dm ridge since the end of April. It did verify to an extent (and for a considerably shorter length than typical upper level ridges) last time for the Great Lakes and SE, but not so much for the Central US.

You can have it all. My first Spring and start of Summer in Texas has featured a dismal severe weather season, a metric ton of rainy/cloudy days and not a death ridge in (reliable) sight. I thought I would at least have hot/sunny weather with multiple rounds of severe t'storms to look forward to after the disaster in February, but it's not happening so far. Might as well be back in Michigan...

That, or we're all going to be storm chasing in AL and MS from now on...

For DFW, May 2020 ended -2.2*F below normal. Unfortunately, it was still 0.3*F shy of making the top 20 coldest list (the two 90*F+ days in the last full week messed that up). That said, this was the coldest May since 2015, and the 2nd coldest in 24 years.

Oh goody...

^^^That's one way to put a positive spin on it, lol.

So, for the day time, it was the coldest it's been this late in the season in over 130 years. Impressive.

What day/year was that, out of curiosity?

Even Joe Public is starting to notice this unsually crappy weather we've been having, lol

Welp, June's looking to be just as bad as May...

lol at DTX and GRR. Even thr SW US has it beat for the last Tornado Warning.