Powerball

My kind of snowstorm. Jealous... 000 FXUS61 KBUF 170550 AFDBUF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 1250 AM EST Mon Jan 17 2022 .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... ...MAJOR WINTER STORM TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY... Regional radars showing an intense band of snow moving north across Western NY, with confirmed snowfall rates of 3-4"/hr and extremely large dendrite conglomorates. A few spotter reports and webcam imagery show sleet mixing in close to Lake Erie, a result of strong downsloping off the higher terrain of NW PA and the Southern Tier. This mix with sleet won`t last too long, but may briefly spread into other areas in Western and Central NY overnight. We expect the heaviest snowfall rates of 2-4"/hr to fall between now and 6am, then snowfall rates will back off to a more manageable 1-2" per hour.

La Nino.

I'd give this rant a C- at best. You can learn a thing or two from beavis.

Pretty dire 00z GFS run last night. Most of OK and TX sees virtually no measurable preciptation the entire run.

Probably typical long range HRRR being overamped type of deal.

What a weirdo system. If it keeps trending SW, even we might get snow from it.

@beavis1729

They became extinct for everywhere not named Boston or Minneapolis after GHD 1.

A winter to remember for the Music City!

That would be Ken and Mayim now.

And of course, it had to be a Broyles outlook. Peak Clown Shit there...

We'll see what happens the rest of this winter / early Spring, but it's certainly something you don't want to see headed into the warm season, because of the positive feedback loop with temperatures.

Much of the region is currently under severe to extreme drought conditions, with no relief in sight:

2 7" at DTW and spotter reports of 4.2" and 4.7" in Roseville and New Baltimore (as of 7am).

I haven't noticed any premature blooming here, but a poster in the Central/Western subforum (who lives in a suburb of Austin) noted that their trees were leafing out again and their tomato plants were still growing.

The vast majority of trees are bare by the time Christmas arrives, but some of them never lose their leaves & remain green all year. Even back during the February freeze last year, they kept their leaves. In-N-Out even managed to get away with planting Palm Trees outside their restaurants here (an ode of course to their Southern California roots) until they were all killed last winter. They've since been replaced though.

So needless to say, 2021 was the warmest December on record for DFW. But just to show how unprecedented it was: *1st December ever to end with a monthly average greater than 60°F (61.3°F to be exact). *Previous record for warmest December was shattered by a whopping +7.3 degrees. *1st December ever to end with a positive double-digit departure from average (+13.2 degrees to be exact). *1st December ever to end with an average high greater than 70°F (72.6°F to be exact). *The previous record for highest December average high was shattered by a whopping +6.7 degrees. *1st December ever to end with an average low of at least 50°F (50°F to beexact). *Previous record for highest December average low was shattered by a whopping +6.6 degrees. *Grand total of only 1 freeze (with a low of only 32°F to be exact) *Grand total of only 1 day with a sub-50°F high (48°F to be exact). *Total of 23 days (yes, you read that correctly) with a high of 70°F+ *Total of 8 days with a high of 80°F+ *Warmest Christmas day on record, with a high of 82°F (breaking the previous record of 80°F from 2016). *Ended with a 9-day consecutive streak of 70°F+ highs. This was all driven by a number of combined factors, including widespread moderate/severe drought conditions across the Southern Plains, an unusually deep -PNA (deepest in at least 16 years), and the MJO which only slowly progressed through two phases (6 & 7) that were favorable for warmer than normal tempertures in Texas.

So needless to say, 2021 was the warmest December on record for DFW. But just to show how unprecedented it was: *1st December ever to end with a monthly average greater than 60°F (61.3°F to be exact). *Previous record for warmest December was shattered by a whopping +7.3 degrees. *1st December ever to end with a positive double-digit departure from average (+13.2 degrees to be exact). *1st December ever to end with an average high greater than 70°F (72.6°F to be exact). *The previous record for highest December average high was shattered by a whopping +6.7 degrees. *1st December ever to end with an average low of at least 50°F (50°F to be exact). *Previous record for highest December average low was shattered by a whopping +6.6 degrees. *Grandrand total of only 1 freeze (with a low of only 32°F to be exact) *Grand total of only 1 day with a sub-50°F high (48°F to be exact). *Total of 23 days (yes, you read that correctly) with a high of 70°F+ *Total of 8 days with a high of 80°F+ *Warmest Christmas day on record, with a high of 82°F (breaking the previous record of 80°F from 2016). *Ended with a 9-day consecutive streak of 70°F+ highs. This was all driven by a number of combined factors, including widespread moderate/severe drought conditions across the Southern Plains, an unusually deep -PNA (deepest in at least 16 years), and the MJO which only slowly progressed through two phases (6 & 7) that were favorable for warmer than normal tempertures in Texas.

The whole discussion about the moisture source for this system is like obsessing over which processor KFC used for the chicken you're being served. Regardless of whether it came from Tyson or Perdue, the meal will still be pretty mediocre.

I'll share the final numbers for DFW tomorrow, because we're going to be nailbiting the truly extreme numbers for the month today, but regardless they're definitely an entireshow. Inferno would be an understatememt.

It would be very on-brand for Detroit to see its amounts increase as this trends to yet another strung out POS. Ho-hum...

fyp.

The low this morning at DFW was 52*F, which (if it holds) will be *JUST* good enough for exactly a 50*F average low for the month of December. Currently, after yesterday's cool morning of 48*F, the average is officially at 49.9*F

I remember you being the local celebrity at the time, lol.