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Powerball

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Everything posted by Powerball

  1. Powerball
    My comment about the EURO was tongue in cheek. In my honest opinion, we'll probably see further consolidation with the heaviest amounts from C. Illinois, N. Central IN and NW Ohio, along with a continued but slow drying trend.
  2. Powerball
    Now watch the EURO come in super amped.
  3. Powerball
    I'm talking about after Wednesday's changeover occurs.
  4. Powerball
    I'm not convinced precip issues (at least of consequence) will make it as far NW as Toledo and Findlay. They might get occasional sleet mixing in, but unless it's ongoing for an extended period, that doesn't do much to cut down on totals.
  5. Powerball
    No kidding. Almost looks like the GFS did before last night.
  6. Powerball
    I'm looking at the Total Accumulated Freezing Rain QPF map on Pivotal Weather. Do note, rain can technically fall with air temperatures below freezing but still not actually accumulate much because of residual warm air on surfaces.
  7. Powerball
    The headlines (or lack thereof) really don't matter to me. I hate ice (along with the extreme cold coming behind it) and I'm not looking forward to any amount of it. I'm hoping it does trend to a nothingburger.
  8. Powerball
    And the heavier rates were still ongoing at the end of the run, so it would have had more snow to come.
  9. Powerball
    If you look closely, the NAM spares the heart of the Metroplex from much (if any) ice, with only advisory criteria amounts in the outer suburbs. (^^^Oh, Thank Heaven!!!) Different story along the OK border around Sherman though.
  10. Powerball
    I definitely think waiting for the 12z model cycle at least is the best move. Those 00z/06z model runs might have been the start of a trend towards a relatively less signifucant event.
  11. Powerball
    Besides the band seemingly starting to consolidate south of GFS/NAM/SREF had it, the amounts have been slowly coming down too. So I wouldn't even say 20"+ totals are a lock.
  12. Powerball
    Still, it is unfortunate that we got several runs (that seemed to be consistent at first) with those insane amounts setting up further NW. Now some people will be disappointed over getting what will still be a big snowstorm (just not epic/crippling/historic).
  13. Powerball
    I don't think you're remembering Jan 4-6, 2014 correctly. See below to review the surface/mid/upper level maps. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/fxg1/NARR/2014.html
  14. Powerball
    Feb 15/16 2021 actually first came to my mind as a possible analog for this storm.
  15. Powerball
    I figured they would have at least corrected themselves when the 1st person questioned their original tweet. But instead, they dug in their heels and doubled down.
  16. Powerball
    True, but also take into consideration it was always NW of the OP.
  17. Powerball
    Not a good sign to see the GEFS shift south like the op GFS, if there's hoping it was a fluke.
  18. Powerball
    It's not even about being a weenie though. They're just loud and wrong. @michsnowfreak you see this shit? @RCNYILWX come get your coworker.
  19. Powerball
    Ed D. has a point...
  20. Powerball
    Most of the recent model runs have the precip ending by Thursday evening. But that EURO run might grind another 1-2" more out on top of what was on that map.
  21. Powerball
    I'm sure it would bury MKE.
  22. Powerball
    Besides that, the 06z runs might have been the start of the models correcting to relatively more realistic amounts in the heaviest band.
  23. Powerball
    That would be close to my original call, but not trip worthy. It's actually a bit drier than the 00z run.
  24. Powerball
    These are pretty bullish watches too. DTX's early call is 12-15" in Detroit.
  25. Powerball
    There was another bump NW on the 06z RGEM.
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