Powerball

51 MPH wind gust at KDET.

A nice looking severe MCS seems to be pushing into Detroit right now. Can't say I'm not jealous.

And while we're at it, Spring 2022 would tie for the 6th warmest on record and would be the warmest in 10 years (2012).

Will have to await final confirmation, but with a high of 95*F and a low of 77*F today, that should be good enough to make May 2022 the 5th warmest on record for DFW (tied with 2012).

For a day with a 15% hatched tornado risk level, yesterday was pretty underwhelming with only 5 reports. That said, there were ton of wind reports (over 150).

It's such a regular occurrence that you'd think they'd cover all bases by accounting for such an potential outcome in their forecasts.

-NAO/-AO /+PNA and MJO in Phase 7/8 definitely supports a cool first half of June for the eastern 2/3rds of the country.

Forecasts 10-14 days out have always had poor predictability and are bound to change, even significantly. There are so many factors on a mesoscale level (which might as well be impossible to predict at such a long range) that can influence how large-scale patterns evolve and the resultant temperature/precipitation people observe. At best, predictions that far out are educated guesses based on past observations. But if weather is anything like history, it can rhyme but never repeats. As far as short-term forecasts, also in recent history, we as average joes have also become way overexposed to a lot more weather forecasting tools than we were traditionally privy to, and that's without necessarily having a complete understanding of the science behind them. If you think back in the 90s or even the early 2000s, we weren't able to easily pull up radars, satellites, model outputs, skew-t soundings, indices, SSTs, MJO plots, etc. that are used for predictions like we are in 2022. I guess my point being, I'm not so sure NOAA's accuracy is any worse or better today than it was in the past. I think it's mostly an issue of information overload for us average joes in combination with modern meteorologists' desire to be overly precise with their forecasts that it leaves them more vulnerable to critiques when things don't go as they predict That's my take, but maybe I missed your angle...

DFW made it to 91*F today, with not a cloud in the sky. Shaping up to be a top shelf holiday weekend!

Provided there isn't an excessive amount of cloud cover for the bulk of the day Thursday, DFW should make it through May without a single sub-70°F high.

Manf of the ensembles do show decent troughing too, though not to the extent of the OP.

Long range GFS has really been trolling you guys. I'm sure it will eventually back off some on the extent of the troughing and cooler air, but still...

Not impressed with today, based on current radar/satellite trends and the chaotic moisture inflow. Shear & forcing looks good though, so I guess that supports the enhanced risk.

Yeah, it was a fail here. But I had pretty low expectations already. In fact, I'm happy that convection and its debris / outflows didn't disrupt our 90*F+ streak. Multiple longevity records were tied and/or broken.

This was somewhere in Ontario, Canada yesterday. The uploader didn't bother to share the exact location and there's no sound

DFW reached an intra-hour high of 92°F at 1:01pm before the cold front moved through. So yes, the record has been tied!

Models continue to struggle with convection this morning, as the radar remains quiet this morning acroas Southern OK and North TX. This afternoon could get interesting. The same models have been indicating a line of storms developing mid/late afternoon along the front as it eases SE. Most of them hold off on organization until just SE of DFW, although initiation slightly earlier than projected would make a big difference for impacts in DFW proper. This is certainly a plausible solution as the cap should be non-existent by midday. If that happens, soundings are certainly supportive of damaging downburst winds and flash flooding.

Welp, that's looking like a big fat fail right now...

Today's high at DFW was 96*F, tying the record.

00z models have trended slower with the cold front just like the GEM. So Saturday may still have a shot at 90°F yet...

Thanks to a fair amount of convective debris today, only made it to 95°F at DFW (1 degree shy of the record high).

DFW will need the 90°F+ days to continue until Saturday to tie with the longest streak on record for May (previously set in 1996). Projections right now are that it will fall 1 day short, unless the front slows down like the 12z GEM advertises...

It's a bit too far out to get into specifics, but at first look, I'm kind of liking the look of 5/20 for decent severe weather potential.