Powerball

IMO, a Winter Storm Watch was still the right decision as it is for the *POTENTIAL* of a warning criteria storm (which the potential, fleeting it may be, is still there). If things do completely fall apart, the watch can always be downgraded to an advisory or cancelled.

Depending on how the 12z model runs trend for the late week system, this thread might get quite the workout soon.

Same windshield wiper pattern happened with GHD 3 as well. Seems to be the SOP with potentially major winter storms these days.

Indeed.

From the Ohio Thread:

00z GEFS shifted east as well, with the mean track over Cleveland.

Weenie run meaning it's likely too generous with the snowfall amounts, as well as how widespread those snowfall amounts will be.

Definitely a weenie run, but probably the best case "spread the wealth" outcome to make as many people happy as possible.

lol at the ICON. Detroit and Indy reeling it back in!!!

lol at the NAM. A glorified arctic front for everyone except (maybe) Northern MI...

The RGEM does have an 18z run, and it only goes to 84hr on Pivotal Weather.

How can you tell when the RGEM only goes through 84hr?

18z NAM did come a bit further SE.

The real shocker is that IND has pulled the trigger on Winter Storm Watches.

Wirh the trough not digging as much and a slower negative tilt, it makes sense.

FWIW, the 12z EURO and GGEM would still be a decent event (4-6" with blizzard conditions). That's not too bad, especially in time for Christmas.

Weird 12z EURO run, but it ended up being a modest hit for a lot of folks.

The main trend with all the models the past 24 hours that the trough is ejecting more slowy and not digging as far south, thus the somewhat weaker but further west solutions we're starting to see. The main impact this will have is whether the storm wraps up quickly enough to become a major event for most in the subforum, or does it revert back to being a glorified arctic front, which is what was advertised before we started seeing these weenie runs.

I remember when the GFS had an Atlanta / Charlotte crusher.

Congrats MSP!

^^^This will age like milk by the weekend...

We already know the 84hr NAM (in its typical fashion) is going to be a MSP special, lol...

So everyone in Chicago, Milwaukee and MI/OH/IN now know who to blame for their rainer...

Wouldn't throw in the towel yet, even for the Ohio Valley. For one, this storm is still several days out (so plenty of time for more shifts). Also, a fair number of the ensembles still have a track across the eastern lakes. But in addition, we know the models have had the tendency to be way too cavalier with how far west and how strong these systems get at this time frame. This storm could of course break that trend given the upper level features at play, but it's still something to keep in mind until we're closer in.

Pretty decent jump west in fact. Has deform snows well into Iowa and a 1005mb low in Missouri.