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Powerball

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Everything posted by Powerball

  1. Powerball
    lol.
  2. Powerball
    In terms of overall evolution, yeah. But on a micro level, how quicky it deepens and takes on a negative tilt will dictate the extent of snowfall and blizzard conditions the further SE in Michigan you get.
  3. Powerball
    Yeah, the NW flow LES belts should still do well if the synoptic snows are underwhelming.
  4. Powerball
    But the GFS had it that low over the Thumb, which was my point.
  5. Powerball
    GFS at this point is a fair bit deeper than the other models. Even the EURO only gets to ~980mb.
  6. Powerball
    Yes. Still, rooting for y'all to get a big dog, plus, there's shit else to talk about down here besides freezing my ass off.
  7. Powerball
    That's because the models have trended in the direction of not deepening the storm as much. Which that makes sense with the trough not being as sharp and not digging as much.
  8. Powerball
    For SW and SC Michigan, yes. It looks less impressive for the northern part of the state, and the areas closer to Detroit still look as "meh" as they have been amount-wise
  9. Powerball
    But that won't stop them from bashing "dA wEdDeRmAn!!!" for getting it wrong or overhyping the storm...
  10. Powerball
    Those weenie model runs that dumped 1-2 feet in Chicago are still making their rounds across social media. Going to be a lot of disappointed average joes, haha!!!
  11. Powerball
    Compared to the hell most of us will be dealing with, that sounds like paradise to me...
  12. Powerball
    But they did get beefed up somewhat in SW Michigan into Central/Northern MI.
  13. Powerball
    See our last PM conversation...
  14. Powerball
    BTW, DTW finally issued a Winter Storm Watch for all of its CWA. They're hitting the blizzard wording fairly strong too. Didn't get too specific with amounts, other than calling for the potential of at least 5-6".
  15. Powerball
    Will be interesting to see if the other global models (NAM may never get a clue) start to catch on to a 06z GFS solution by the 12z runs. Would need blizzard warnings across all of Lower MI for that, easily.
  16. Powerball
    06z GFS was pretty brutal (in a good way) across SW and Central MI.
  17. Powerball
    06z NAM is definitely a bit worse, certainly drier.
  18. Powerball
    Was there already a decent snowpack in place ahead of 1978?
  19. Powerball
    Knock on wood of course, but all things considered, you seem to be a good spot right now.
  20. Powerball
    It was initially headed in the direction of a NAM solution, but ended up being just a slightly version of the 06z run. EDIT: Slightly stronger...
  21. Powerball
    GFS is looking a lot more NAM-like...
  22. Powerball
    FWIW, 12z RGEM is weaker (thus doesn't wrap up nearly as well), but the track is the same from the 00z run and it's not NAM bad with the cold sector precip. So still a solid run of the mill event for IL / WI / W. MI.
  23. Powerball
    Welp, this might age like wine...
  24. Powerball
    Understatement of the century...
  25. Powerball
    lol at the 12z NAM. The bleeding continues...
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