Powerball

Not so much mixing issues as of late, but definitely rates for sure, since the vast majority of the "big" events have been low-amped (weak lift/instability) and northern-stream dominant (limited moisture). That said, this storm definitely has potential given its gulf origins, the trough taking on a negative tilt and ULL possibly closing off.

Why for me? lol...

The general theme with storms at this range have been for them to trend weaker/SE (thus getting sheared apart) with time as models keep underestimating how progressive the flow is. This system *COULD* defy that trend given the strength of the jet streak involved and the wave being more compact than others, which is why it does have big dog potential for places such as Milwaukee, Des Moines and Northern Michigan. But the wave following closely on its heels and the residual blocking/confluence across Ontario/Quebec are both concerning. Regardless of the outcome, it's likely going to end up being an underwhelming storm for majority of folks on here.

Setup has potential for a Milwaukee crusher, but trends die hard. Still a solid chance this will just unravel into another long-duration advisory event (2-4" or 3-6") for the CHI-DET corridor.

Considering the data for marginal risk areas is only limited to when it debuted in late 2014, I'm not sure how accurate that point this. I suspect if one did some more digging, MN / WI / IA at least had a "SEE TEXT" at some point in the past during January or February.

Desperate times call for desperate measures. If it'a any consolation, the folks in the Southeast and on the East Coast are sharing in your misery.

#Lawngate

Indeed.

lol

Today's high at DFW was 83*F, shattering the previous record of 79*F from 2017.The forecast for tomorrow is 85*F. The current record is 83*F, set in 1911.

Today's record high at DFW is 79*F, set in 2017. With a forecast high ~80*F, we have a solid chance of breaking that today.

June and July were pretty active, at least for the eastern/southern lakes and Ohio Valley In Detroit, 7/4 featured numerous late-day hail cores & flash flooding across the area after temps surged to a near-record high of 101*F with mostly sunny skies. That was followed by an early morning squall line on 7/5 that produced widespread wind damage. Then of course, there was the notorious 6/29 - 6/30 derecho that tracked from Chicago to DC.

It is looking pretty dire for you all...

Despite mostly cloudy skies and late morning / midday showers, DFW tied the record high of 78°F today (previously set in 2004). Also, as long as temps stay at/above 64°F through Midnight, the record high minimum of 63°F will also be broken.

Despite near record-breaking cold leading into Christmas weekend, December still ended up +2.6°F above normal for DFW (22nd warmest on record)...

Looking forward to temps ~70*F the next few days...

Now *THIS* is a real blizzard!

It's still early. I suspect many of the OH/MI folks (outside the LES belts) will end up pretty underwhelmed too. But yeah, if you had low expectations from the get go, that's a different story.

Surprised this thread isn't more active.

And maybe I'm looking at different models, but if anything, most of them are trending drier with weaker forcing for the Detroit area specifically, as the system is no longer getting as deep as originally expected and the deepening is at a slower pace. That includes the GFS and FV3 compared to yesterday's runs.

Welp, it's snowing here...

How much less could you care?

Same goes for the 03z RAP...

While drier out west, snowfall-wise, the 00z GFS was the best run (in a while) for Detroit.