Powerball

Starting to see lightning strikes in Metro Detroit now...

Special Weather Statement National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 610 PM EST Fri Mar 3 2023 MIZ060>063-068>070-075-076-082-083-040200- Shiawassee-Genesee-Lapeer-St. Clair-Livingston-Oakland-Macomb- Washtenaw-Wayne-Lenawee-Monroe- Including the cities of Owosso, Flint, Lapeer, Port Huron, Howell, Pontiac, Warren, Ann Arbor, Detroit, Adrian, and Monroe 610 PM EST Fri Mar 3 2023 ...TREACHEROUS TO NEAR IMPOSSIBLE TRAVEL CONDITIONS THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING FROM THE I-69 CORRIDOR SOUTH TO THE OHIO BORDER... WEATHER... * Periods of heavy, wet snowfall will continue through 9 PM across widespread areas from the I-69 corridor south to the Ohio border, including all of the Detroit metro region, Ann Arbor, Flint, and surrounding areas. Sporadic blizzard conditions will be possible through 9 PM resulting in treacherous to near impossible travel conditions on all roadways, whether treated or untreated. * Hourly snowfall rates of 1 to 2 inches per hour will be common, with localized areas seeing hourly snowfall rates potentially approaching 3 inches per hour. Additionally, thundersnow will be possible along with a rogue lightning strike as bands of intense snowfall move south to north from the Ohio border across the Detroit metro region and up towards the I-69 corridor. * Quick heavy, wet snow accumulations of 3 to 6 inches will be possible through 9 PM, with locally higher amounts possible. There remains a low chance of rain mixing in at times near the Ohio border, which may cut down on snow totals primarily south of M-50. * Air temperatures will generally hover around the freezing mark. Despite air temperatures around freezing, rapid snowfall accumulation will allow for very efficient accumulation on area roadways. * Widespread visibilities below 1/2 mile will be common through 9 PM, with whiteout conditions likely at times due to gusty northeast winds as high as 35 to 45 mph at times. Blowing snow will be minimal due to the wet character of the snow, but downed limbs and trees that have already experienced heavy load from the recent ice storm may lead to increased hazards on area roadways. IMPACTS... * Sporadic blizzard conditions are likely due to the combination of heavy accumulating snow, near whiteout conditions at times, and gusty winds up to 35-45 mph at times. && PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... * Treacherous to impossible travel is likely. Travel is not advised. * Prepare, plan and stay informed. Visit http://go.usa.gov/c7kkP $$

Gotta say, I am jealous, even if there may not be big dog snow totals.

Widespead 35-45 MPH gusts across Metro Detroit now with heavy snow and 1/4 mile visibilities. Will need to keep that up for 2 more consecutive hours to qualify as blizzard conditions.

None of the models seem to bring dry slotting that far NW, although a transition back to rain/mix is still plausible for the east side (see Owensnow's report above).

There it is!!! Mesoscale Discussion 0251 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0425 PM CST Fri Mar 03 2023 Areas affected...Northern Indiana and southern Lower Michigan Concerning...Heavy snow Valid 032225Z - 040230Z SUMMARY...Strong ascent across the northern Indiana and southern Lower Michigan region, coupled with areas of freezing temperatures at the surface, will support pockets of heavy snowfall rates through mid evening. DISCUSSION...Over the past 1-2 hours, a handful of surface observations from far northeast IL, northern IN, and southern Lower MI have reported moderate to heavy snowfall with visibility at or below 1/4 mile at times. Such conditions have largely been contained to areas where surface temperatures have experienced strong evaporative cooling and fallen into the 30-32 F range. Many locations that are currently above freezing are reporting dewpoint values in the low 30s, suggesting that additional low-level evaporative cooling to freezing is possible over the next few hours - especially under areas of heavier precipitation. Aloft, strong isentropic ascent through the 925-700 mb layer will be augmented by a mid-level deformation zone to the north of the synoptic low. This ascent is expected to persist through the late afternoon/evening hours as a strong cyclone lifts to the northeast, and may promote periods of organized snow banding. Furthermore, periodic lightning flashes suggest adequate buoyancy exists over the region to support localized bursts of heavier snow. Consequently, snowfall rates up to 2 inches/hour (possibly as high as 3 inches/hour) will be possible where low-level temperatures are below freezing. ..Moore.. 03/03/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...CLE...DTX...IWX...GRR...LOT... LAT...LON 41628718 42038637 42928415 42998357 42788274 42228266 41788283 41538366 41278489 40808668 40778722 40858757 41318760 41628718

It's still early to say for sure, but things are looking good so far.

Oh yes, I'm sure that's the case. That's why I changed the wording in my original post from annoyed to disappointed, lol.

Radar's filling in quite rapidly. Folks were worried about dry slotting for nothing, haha!

Kind of disappointed that we haven't got a heavy snow MD from the SPC (yet). I've seen them written up for much wimpier events...

Yeah, these GFS runs have been some true clown maps, lol..

Precip coverage-wise, HRRR seems to fill things in quite nicely for MI.

Definitely a fair amount of lightning being detected in Lenawee and Hillsdale Counties...

Should have a good shot at TSSN soon. The radar has that look.

Definitely should get exciting for most of the Southern MI folks the next few hours, although areas along the eastern shore may still struggle with mixing issues.

Has anyone else besides me been constantly refreshing the SPC page for a MD about the snow?

And it'd be cutting far enough NW to only bury N. MI and MKE...

lol indeed.

It seems a couple MI ASOS sites near the IN border are reporting all snow, FWIW...

I stopped short of making the leap, but my suspicion is that the HRRR's algos are confusing rimed snowflakes and/or aggregates (with the convective elements) for sleet.

Not sure what to think of the HRRR. It keeps showing a swath of heavy accumulating sleet, which the profiles aren't really supportive of that.

Kind of chuckled at this from IWX... FXUS63 KIWX 030956 AFDIWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Northern Indiana 456 AM EST Fri Mar 3 2023 A couple caveats do exist with this storm system and there seems to be a higher than normal bust potential due to the continued existence of uncertainty in the guidance. In areas with snowfall, the snow will be the very wet variety with snow ratios of about 6:1 to 10:1, so this makes the removal of snow much harder to shovel. Also, due to the wet nature of the snowfall there will be much more compaction with this snow which can lead to misleading snow measurements as once the snow falls and a measurement is taken, the actual depth will be less than actual snow amounts that have fallen. So keep this in mind. Another issue is that with this forecast we have taken evaporational cooling into account to allow for snowfall and this will not remain constant through the event which will introduce the potential for rainfall mixing in at times once the lower levels moisten up later this afternoon. So as I said earlier that this is was a very difficult forecast. So I guess what I am saying is be gentle with us if this system does not exactly go according to plan.

Also, FWIW, the 06z RGEM did finally come in a bit stronger/warmer/NW.

It seems it's just the RAP and UKMET (lol) that are on the stronger/warmer/NW end amongst the models now.

Track-wise, it looks to be the same as the 00z run... The only real difference is the surface low's several MBs weaker as it moves through MO/KY/IN.