Powerball

DTW may suck when it comes to reeling in the big dogs, but it always manages to score somehow with the mediocre / run-of-the-mill snow events better than most in the midwest.

Per the SPC's discussion, the main reason the 15% area was dropped was because of poor timing for the ArkLaTx region. Probs are still about the same for DFW, and if anything, it's looking relatively better than it did yesterday (just not quite 15% probs better).

Which is what's great about WFH. As long as I get the job done, my boss fortunately couldn't care less about "idle" hours, lol...

12z Hi-Res models definitely looking more volatile for DFW late this afternoon, showing more of a favorable setup for tornadic storms. I'm sure it's in part because of the warm front getting hung up further SE. I wouldn't be surprised if the moderate risk area gets expanded NW a bit.

12z FV3 (which I understand is some hi-res derivative of the GFS) also crushes Detroit.

12z HRRR has to be the most run for Detroit yet. Meanwhile, Chicago's barely whiffing Cirrus (let alone precip) and it even has Harry riding the edge.

Yes, the NAM has an excellent reputation for being consistently wrong...

With a range like that, you'll get a more accurate prediction by simply off throwing a dart and seeing where it lands.

What will be to a lot of folks' shock, DTX went with a WSW for their entire CWA...

Part of it is that the big dog potential, as expected, has gone the way of the Dodo. Still has the potential to be a decent event though.

Another thing I noticed is that the latest models runs have started to speed things up again. Timing's going to be more of an issue for DFW than instability/dynamics. The later the timing, the better for a more widespread event as the line will have time to organize before exiting to the east.

Definitely think the Severe Thunderstorm Watch for all of DFW was a bit presumptuous. The activity this morning has been centered along a narrow corridor and has shown no signs of expanding northward or southward. In other words, it's isolated enough that short fuse warnings would have been sufficient.

The -PNA/-NAO combo along with the warmer anomalies over the Gulf are already making for some interesting severe weather setups across the Plains and Dixie Alley.

Looking good...

Yeah, I'd easily take snow over the ZR/PL too, lol...

If I had to pick a worse poison between ZR and PL, it would definitely be ZR. It's really a marginal pick though, because they're both quite awful in their own ways. I've had the pleasure of experiencing 12+ hours of non-stop sleet, but I pray I'll never have to experience a significant ice storm (DFW fortunately dodged a bullet with the system back in late January / early February).

To answer your question, similar to last Wednesday, it's because of the low wet-bulb temperatures causing evaporative cooling. Dewpoints were in the mid/upper 20s despite actual surface temps around (or just above) freezing. As the air has become saturated, the dewpoints have risen closer to freezing and now the precip is transitioning entirely over to liquid rain.

Call it what you want. But the current output would be a once in a 50-year event (and that's being generous, I mean how often do we see a widespred 12"+ blizzard along the STL-IND-DTW corridor?) And that's not accounting for the usual shenanigans the models have been pulling with over-amping these storms in the medium range. That said, it will probably end up being a decent run-of-the-mill storm (6-10" with some blowing/drifitng) for parts of the subforum when all said and done. And given the winter you all have had, it could be far worse.

The models are really trolling y'all hard with these weenie runs that will inevitably not even come close to fruition...

I was being lazy when I typed that post. I meant to say 2nd least snowiest (not 2nd snowless).

Welp, in typical Detroit fashion, February always finds some way to pull through. It won't be a 2nd snowless after all, as a shortwave moved through and apparently produced 1-3" overnight.

What's really wild is that Dallas has had more measurable snowfall this season than Philadelphia and NYC. (although technically, the "measurable snowfall" was sleet)

Yeah, it looks that way. Out towards Jackson, Hillsdale and Lansing.

It seems Ice Accumulation around the Detroit area was generally in the 0.25" to 0.35" range. DET is amongst the higher reports so far, with a total of 0.36".

Just talked to my mom. She's lost power as well.