Powerball

On the way back yesterday, still didn't see any signs of life until just north of Dayton. That said, I'd say leaf out is about 95% complete here in Dallas, and they really started to pop out once I got to Nashville.

Honestly, the GL/OV has been long overdue for an April torch.

For me, knowing I get to go back to Dallas for the rest of this season, this bust doesn't really sting. It was always going to a bonus, if anything.

Gotta agree with Palm Dude...

000 FXUS63 KIWX 051526 AFDIWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Northern Indiana 1126 AM EDT Wed Apr 5 2023 An updated weather briefing has been published to depict a declining tornado and hail risk. Squall line that has moved in from the west has weakened and MUCAPE is declining. Cluster of storms moving through central IN will further muddy the waters so to speak. So, have removed the "kitchen sink" from the forecast grids and have instead offered damaging wind as the primary threat, should convection become reinvigorated with pockets of clearing noted on satellite.

Just in time for me to go back. God bless Texas & the Sunbelt. Love it!

FYP...

Beautiful.

If I'm not mistaken, he (Cyclone) is still out of town on vacation.

DTW poured quite a bit of cold water on the potential Wednesday, FWIW. It wouldn't be a early season severe weather setup if it came easy... 000 FXUS63 KDTX 040812 AFDDTX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 412 AM EDT Tue Apr 4 2023 .DISCUSSION... On Wednesday, Southeast Michigan will be well positioned within a strongly sheared warm sector as all indications are that surface temperatures will reach the lower 70s and dewpoints rise into the lower 60s. Environmental winds across the forecast area are impressive with 55 knots down to roughly 3.0 kft agl which results in long 0-1km and 0-2km hodograph lengths. There are a number of items worth discussing that could have significant impacts on what occurs. The first item is that forecast soundings from multiple solutions favor subsidence between 3.5-7.5 kft agl. This checks out as Southeast Michigan is unfavorably situated to the upper level jet axis and absolute vorticity fields strongly show a period of anticyclonic vorticity advection during the afternoon. It is the subsidence and resultant capping inversion that maintains a narrow CAPE profile and limits coverage of shower and thunderstorms during the afternoon. In fact, the 00Z NAM solution is suggesting little to no mixed layer CAPE for Metro Detroit and virtually all of the cwa after 19Z. The second item of discussion is the upstream convection/convective remnants that are shown by some model data to stream out of MO Bootheel region through the far southern forecast area after 12Z. This subset of model solutions then becomes somewhat persistent with continued activity over or just east of the cwa as differential heating/rain cooled air mass likely augments the model convergence fields. This activity does also appear to be tied to the anticyclonic shear side off of the low level jet. So there is a considerable amount of uncertainty as to both the coverage of thunderstorm activity and what area will see the greatest severe weather threat. The best message at this vantage point centers on a conditionality of the severe threat. Given the strongly sheared profile, i.e. 0-3km SRH of 350-450 m2/s2 any deep convection/thunderstorms that become rooted within the 0-2km layer will have the potential to be of supercell mode and pose the threat for significant severe weather. This includes both a strong tornado threat and large hail of golfball or larger. Will state it again, however, the development of deep thunderstorm activity very well remains in question. So the message is one that the environment tomorrow will be supportive of significant severe weather. Given the current model consensus, it appears the greatest severe threat may be early in the prefrontal environment between 16-20Z. Additionally, the northern cwa could possibly see the greatest severe threat as steep midlevel lapse rates/pseudo elevated mixed layer holds on there the longest. Latest day2 has all of Southeast Michigan in an enhanced risk for severe weather. Monitor future forecasts for refinement to the messaging.

Got a nice (surprise) appetizer of garden variety t'storms this evening.

To some extent of course, the amount of daytime heating will be a question mark as well. Stronger heating (thus greater surface instability) can make up for a somewhat underwhelming LLJ. That said, the satellite is showing quite a bit of cloud cover this morning. .

30% hatched wind area also added. They stopped just short of going moderate, which could happen by the next outlook. That said, the NE edge was shaven off just a bit.

Based on the Day 4 SPC outlook for MI/OH/IN, this thread should be expanded to 4/5.

Given there's a marginal risk in place for tomorrow, I'd argue this thread should be combined with the other for 4/2 (and include 4/3) as this is appears it may be a multi-day event for the subforum. That's just MHO.

This has definitely been a sleeper for DFW...

Interesting...

Part of it is that a lot of folks that would otherwise be actively positng in MS/AL/TN are mainly active on 2 other boards.

Hig risk incoming for both the Mid-South and the Quad Cities area... EDIT: And a PDS Tornado Watch is incoming for Arkansas.

Yeah, winds definitely overachieved. Would have qualified for a High Wind Warning in hindsight. I was telling my mom "hmmm, winds so far aren't so bad" at 1pm yesterday. But little did I know...: Thankfully, the fact that the leaf out hasn't commenced yet and it was well above freezing kept the extent of power outages at bay.

DET just popped a 60 MPH gust, after a couple observations with 50+ MPH gusts... EDIT: DTW apparently gusted to 67 MPH earlier.