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Everything posted by Powerball
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A good variety of weather? Sure. To the same extreme or frequency as Dallas? Aside from snowfall, I doubt it. Even the temperature swings in Dallas tend to be more extreme (gotta love the Plains!). https://www.wamc.org/new-england-news/2015-11-12/environment-america-unveils-severe-weather-map https://archive.nytimes.com/www.nytimes.com/interactive/2011/05/01/weekinreview/01safe.html?hp That said, who knows (with climate change and all) what the future will bring in the coming years with weather patterns & events...
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Dallas climo is definitely not great if you're mostly just a winter weather weenie. Eskimo climos such as Chicago and Minneapolis (where you're rocking parkas and slipping/sliding on ice/snow for 3-6 months) would be more ideal for sure. But a winter weather weenie is not necessarily a weather weenie, who is someone that likes to see/track all kinds of active/extreme weather and a variety of it on a frequent basis.
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Hurricanes can be a lot more destructive, and it has snowed all 3 winters I've been here (it just hasn't accumulated in blankets and stuck around forever). I'll also take too hot over too cold (Chicago). EDIT: I also wouldn't say Dallas averaging 40" of rain per year (roughly the same amount as Chicago) is "too dry" either, lol.
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Dallas really is the best climo for a weather weenie, if we're being honest. Besides the long warm seasons and seeing plenty of sun, there aren't many places (at least in the US) where you can go from: *A historic deep freeze in February (2021) to... *A December of wall-to-wall Summer-like weather in the same year (2021), plus... *A historic tornado outbreak the following December (2022), not to mention... *One of the worst droughts and driest/hottest Summers ever completely busted by a freak deluge in a matter of hours (2022)... The best part is, these types of events aren't nearly as destructive as a Hurricane, Tsunami or Earthquake of decent strength would be.
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As of this morning, over 200K people were without power across the Detroit area. No doubt, really bad luck for those who had just got their power back on following the Ice Storm to only lose it again so quickly. And apparently, there were still 9K people without power from the Ice Storm when this storm commenced. I'm guessing RogueWaves is also still in the dark given his absence since last night.
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The snowfall map that were showing 12-20" were great for laughs though
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My mom was without power for over 80 hours after the Ice Storm y'all got. Hopefully, it doesn't last nearly that long for you. The power infrastructure there is just so old, and then on top of that much of it is above ground. So it's very suspectible to failures/outages with even a hint of inclement weather.
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Seeing more green/pink returns across most of Macomb, Wayne and Monroe Counties on RadarScope now, but also more lightning.
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DTW'a also reporting a mix, and visibilities have come up at DET. That said, PTK's reporting TSSN+.
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RadarScope does have pink reflectivities now in Eastern Wayne and SE Macomb.
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Starting to see lightning strikes in Metro Detroit now...
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Special Weather Statement National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 610 PM EST Fri Mar 3 2023 MIZ060>063-068>070-075-076-082-083-040200- Shiawassee-Genesee-Lapeer-St. Clair-Livingston-Oakland-Macomb- Washtenaw-Wayne-Lenawee-Monroe- Including the cities of Owosso, Flint, Lapeer, Port Huron, Howell, Pontiac, Warren, Ann Arbor, Detroit, Adrian, and Monroe 610 PM EST Fri Mar 3 2023 ...TREACHEROUS TO NEAR IMPOSSIBLE TRAVEL CONDITIONS THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING FROM THE I-69 CORRIDOR SOUTH TO THE OHIO BORDER... WEATHER... * Periods of heavy, wet snowfall will continue through 9 PM across widespread areas from the I-69 corridor south to the Ohio border, including all of the Detroit metro region, Ann Arbor, Flint, and surrounding areas. Sporadic blizzard conditions will be possible through 9 PM resulting in treacherous to near impossible travel conditions on all roadways, whether treated or untreated. * Hourly snowfall rates of 1 to 2 inches per hour will be common, with localized areas seeing hourly snowfall rates potentially approaching 3 inches per hour. Additionally, thundersnow will be possible along with a rogue lightning strike as bands of intense snowfall move south to north from the Ohio border across the Detroit metro region and up towards the I-69 corridor. * Quick heavy, wet snow accumulations of 3 to 6 inches will be possible through 9 PM, with locally higher amounts possible. There remains a low chance of rain mixing in at times near the Ohio border, which may cut down on snow totals primarily south of M-50. * Air temperatures will generally hover around the freezing mark. Despite air temperatures around freezing, rapid snowfall accumulation will allow for very efficient accumulation on area roadways. * Widespread visibilities below 1/2 mile will be common through 9 PM, with whiteout conditions likely at times due to gusty northeast winds as high as 35 to 45 mph at times. Blowing snow will be minimal due to the wet character of the snow, but downed limbs and trees that have already experienced heavy load from the recent ice storm may lead to increased hazards on area roadways. IMPACTS... * Sporadic blizzard conditions are likely due to the combination of heavy accumulating snow, near whiteout conditions at times, and gusty winds up to 35-45 mph at times. && PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... * Treacherous to impossible travel is likely. Travel is not advised. * Prepare, plan and stay informed. Visit http://go.usa.gov/c7kkP $$
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Gotta say, I am jealous, even if there may not be big dog snow totals.
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Widespead 35-45 MPH gusts across Metro Detroit now with heavy snow and 1/4 mile visibilities. Will need to keep that up for 2 more consecutive hours to qualify as blizzard conditions.
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None of the models seem to bring dry slotting that far NW, although a transition back to rain/mix is still plausible for the east side (see Owensnow's report above).
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There it is!!! Mesoscale Discussion 0251 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0425 PM CST Fri Mar 03 2023 Areas affected...Northern Indiana and southern Lower Michigan Concerning...Heavy snow Valid 032225Z - 040230Z SUMMARY...Strong ascent across the northern Indiana and southern Lower Michigan region, coupled with areas of freezing temperatures at the surface, will support pockets of heavy snowfall rates through mid evening. DISCUSSION...Over the past 1-2 hours, a handful of surface observations from far northeast IL, northern IN, and southern Lower MI have reported moderate to heavy snowfall with visibility at or below 1/4 mile at times. Such conditions have largely been contained to areas where surface temperatures have experienced strong evaporative cooling and fallen into the 30-32 F range. Many locations that are currently above freezing are reporting dewpoint values in the low 30s, suggesting that additional low-level evaporative cooling to freezing is possible over the next few hours - especially under areas of heavier precipitation. Aloft, strong isentropic ascent through the 925-700 mb layer will be augmented by a mid-level deformation zone to the north of the synoptic low. This ascent is expected to persist through the late afternoon/evening hours as a strong cyclone lifts to the northeast, and may promote periods of organized snow banding. Furthermore, periodic lightning flashes suggest adequate buoyancy exists over the region to support localized bursts of heavier snow. Consequently, snowfall rates up to 2 inches/hour (possibly as high as 3 inches/hour) will be possible where low-level temperatures are below freezing. ..Moore.. 03/03/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...CLE...DTX...IWX...GRR...LOT... LAT...LON 41628718 42038637 42928415 42998357 42788274 42228266 41788283 41538366 41278489 40808668 40778722 40858757 41318760 41628718
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It's still early to say for sure, but things are looking good so far.
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Oh yes, I'm sure that's the case. That's why I changed the wording in my original post from annoyed to disappointed, lol.
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Radar's filling in quite rapidly. Folks were worried about dry slotting for nothing, haha!
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Kind of disappointed that we haven't got a heavy snow MD from the SPC (yet). I've seen them written up for much wimpier events...
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Yeah, these GFS runs have been some true clown maps, lol..
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Precip coverage-wise, HRRR seems to fill things in quite nicely for MI.
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Definitely a fair amount of lightning being detected in Lenawee and Hillsdale Counties...