Powerball

None of the models seem to bring dry slotting that far NW, although a transition back to rain/mix is still plausible for the east side (see Owensnow's report above).

There it is!!! Mesoscale Discussion 0251 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0425 PM CST Fri Mar 03 2023 Areas affected...Northern Indiana and southern Lower Michigan Concerning...Heavy snow Valid 032225Z - 040230Z SUMMARY...Strong ascent across the northern Indiana and southern Lower Michigan region, coupled with areas of freezing temperatures at the surface, will support pockets of heavy snowfall rates through mid evening. DISCUSSION...Over the past 1-2 hours, a handful of surface observations from far northeast IL, northern IN, and southern Lower MI have reported moderate to heavy snowfall with visibility at or below 1/4 mile at times. Such conditions have largely been contained to areas where surface temperatures have experienced strong evaporative cooling and fallen into the 30-32 F range. Many locations that are currently above freezing are reporting dewpoint values in the low 30s, suggesting that additional low-level evaporative cooling to freezing is possible over the next few hours - especially under areas of heavier precipitation. Aloft, strong isentropic ascent through the 925-700 mb layer will be augmented by a mid-level deformation zone to the north of the synoptic low. This ascent is expected to persist through the late afternoon/evening hours as a strong cyclone lifts to the northeast, and may promote periods of organized snow banding. Furthermore, periodic lightning flashes suggest adequate buoyancy exists over the region to support localized bursts of heavier snow. Consequently, snowfall rates up to 2 inches/hour (possibly as high as 3 inches/hour) will be possible where low-level temperatures are below freezing. ..Moore.. 03/03/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...CLE...DTX...IWX...GRR...LOT... LAT...LON 41628718 42038637 42928415 42998357 42788274 42228266 41788283 41538366 41278489 40808668 40778722 40858757 41318760 41628718

It's still early to say for sure, but things are looking good so far.

Oh yes, I'm sure that's the case. That's why I changed the wording in my original post from annoyed to disappointed, lol.

Radar's filling in quite rapidly. Folks were worried about dry slotting for nothing, haha!

Kind of disappointed that we haven't got a heavy snow MD from the SPC (yet). I've seen them written up for much wimpier events...

Yeah, these GFS runs have been some true clown maps, lol..

Precip coverage-wise, HRRR seems to fill things in quite nicely for MI.

Definitely a fair amount of lightning being detected in Lenawee and Hillsdale Counties...

Should have a good shot at TSSN soon. The radar has that look.

Definitely should get exciting for most of the Southern MI folks the next few hours, although areas along the eastern shore may still struggle with mixing issues.

Has anyone else besides me been constantly refreshing the SPC page for a MD about the snow?

And it'd be cutting far enough NW to only bury N. MI and MKE...

lol indeed.

It seems a couple MI ASOS sites near the IN border are reporting all snow, FWIW...

I stopped short of making the leap, but my suspicion is that the HRRR's algos are confusing rimed snowflakes and/or aggregates (with the convective elements) for sleet.

Not sure what to think of the HRRR. It keeps showing a swath of heavy accumulating sleet, which the profiles aren't really supportive of that.

Kind of chuckled at this from IWX... FXUS63 KIWX 030956 AFDIWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Northern Indiana 456 AM EST Fri Mar 3 2023 A couple caveats do exist with this storm system and there seems to be a higher than normal bust potential due to the continued existence of uncertainty in the guidance. In areas with snowfall, the snow will be the very wet variety with snow ratios of about 6:1 to 10:1, so this makes the removal of snow much harder to shovel. Also, due to the wet nature of the snowfall there will be much more compaction with this snow which can lead to misleading snow measurements as once the snow falls and a measurement is taken, the actual depth will be less than actual snow amounts that have fallen. So keep this in mind. Another issue is that with this forecast we have taken evaporational cooling into account to allow for snowfall and this will not remain constant through the event which will introduce the potential for rainfall mixing in at times once the lower levels moisten up later this afternoon. So as I said earlier that this is was a very difficult forecast. So I guess what I am saying is be gentle with us if this system does not exactly go according to plan.

Also, FWIW, the 06z RGEM did finally come in a bit stronger/warmer/NW.

It seems it's just the RAP and UKMET (lol) that are on the stronger/warmer/NW end amongst the models now.

Track-wise, it looks to be the same as the 00z run... The only real difference is the surface low's several MBs weaker as it moves through MO/KY/IN.

Yep, it's been trending for a while. Although not severe, did just see another weaker line of t'storms move through a half hour ago with a decent pop of wind. Had power go in & out again.

06z NAM and HRRR both came a bit SE, so there's that... EDIT: Also, the EURO and UKMET do seem to keep the ULL a bit deeper and closed off longer, which seems to result in a slightly healthier trowal (and is also why areas to the NW saw a bump in QPF and slightly warmer air impacts the Detroit area). But it just goes to show how extremely sensitive this setup is with the marginal thermals.

I said nice downpour, not long. Radar does show a decent-looking line of heavy showers approaching. So maybe not a complete shut out from rain, lol...

Although the severe weather potential is dwindling, it still seems you have a decent shot at a nice downpour.