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Powerball

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Everything posted by Powerball

  1. Powerball
    Also January 1999.
  2. Powerball
  3. Powerball
    Eh, those cells still look to be struggling on radar right now.
  4. Powerball
    No changes with the latest SPC Day 1 outlook...
  5. Powerball
  6. Powerball
    Weak forcing, although stuff is starting to become organized just north of the OFB.
  7. Powerball
    Hopefully, they do a 21z sounding as well.
  8. Powerball
    Not all 977mb lows are created equal, so that means nothing in isolation. See, for example, the Christmas eve storm which was nearly as strong but produced very underwhelmimg snowfall amounts for most. Temp profiles, storm track and location/residence/intensity of better lift/instability/moisture are the more relevant factors. That said, I'll eat crow if 12"+ amounts happen (not including any LES). I'd love for you all to get a big dog.
  9. Powerball
    But I will say, I'm seeing a lot more towering/billowing CU over the past half hour.
  10. Powerball
    Something has been trying to go up over Irving and Lewisville. It's struggling mightily though.
  11. Powerball
  12. Powerball
    The 18z HRRR is also stronger with the low, a bit warmer overall, and it backed off a bit with the snowfall amounts.
  13. Powerball
    Unless you're in TX and OK apparently, as of late...
  14. Powerball
  15. Powerball
    Latest radar is starting to show some percolation of additional cells along the residual otuflow boundary from yesterday that's bisecting DFW We'll see if they start to organize...
  16. Powerball
    I think that's the right move. Either that or issue an extremely large and marathon length Tornado Watch.
  17. Powerball
    It seems even the June 2019 Derecho was only Enhanced. It would be surprising to me if April 2011 was the last moderate risk.
  18. Powerball
    12" isn't happening for DTW or anywhere. Even if mixing/dry slot issues don't occur, the models aren't overdoing QPF and there's TSSN, the poor ratios will see to that. 6-10" is a good bet though in the heaviest and most persistent banding. Which, given you're looking at convective snowfall rates, is not bad at all.
  19. Powerball
    Oh, and it's nice to finally have an event that impacts DFW at an ideal time with a relatively clean and uncapped warm sector. Since I moved here, most of the "better" events have either been messy (a ton of low clouds / WAA showers / drizzle with cool surface temps), had capping issues or had poor timing (late evening / early morning).
  20. Powerball
    Which is why the Lions/Eagles Snow Bowl in 2013 is perhaps my favorite Football game ever.
  21. Powerball
    Was October 2019 a moderate risk?
  22. Powerball
    I will say, however, clouds are gradually thinning here in the Metroplex with more sun coming through.
  23. Powerball
    There'a still a fair amount of CINH in place, so I'm not surprised to see the current warm front cells struggle.
  24. Powerball
  25. Powerball
    Sanctioned.
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