Powerball

Yeah...

Don't be so sure for the Michigan, Ohio and Indiana folks (lake effect clouds)...

Also, I can't help but laugh at the Winter Storm Warning for 3-6". In normal times, that would be a mere advisory for IA/WI...

Some folks are never satisfied...

Your mistake is trying to make sense of the CFS...

2007/2008. It didn't really drill Central Michigan necessarily, but definitely the far NW suburbs.

At least you're dedicated. I'll give you that...

TxDOT, NTTA and local municipalities have been doing some treatment on the highways and main thoroughfares. The secondary roads and side streets are still skating rinks.

The thing to be concerned about headed into tonight is even if air temps do eventually warm to 32-33*F, you can still see a decent amount of ice accretion if the surface temperature on objects remain below freezing. Since DFW has been in the 20s since late Sunday evening (over 60 hours), that may certainly end up be the case. Not to mention, the roads/sidewalks have already been primed for efficient accretion with the layer of sleet from yesterday.

That has to be off, or it could be a measurement over one of the lakes (I.E. Grapevine or Lewisville), which always run warmer. Official observations from NWS sites show everyone is still in the upper 20s as of 1pm.

Some drier air did move in since yesterday's round. Dewpoints were in the mid/upper teens this morning. The column is gradually moistening again, but the precipitaiton rates are lighter and the better forcing appears to be higher up in the atmosphere, so it's going to take a bit of extra time for the entire column to become saturated.

Houston, maybe... Memphis? They're getting an Ice Storm Warning right now. St. Louis? lol...

What models have been struggling with (obviously besides surface temps) is the convective nature of the precipitation. With these waves being so subtle, large scale forcing has been pretty weak. That said, there's just enough instability/moisture/covergence in the lower levels (below 700mb) in combination with the weak lift to generate intense but intermittent areas of precipitation. Yes, worst case, such a setup can be catastrophic for narrow corridors that end up under the most persistent/stationary banding. However, it can also be a real feast or famine as far as how widespread the impacts and amounts are.

Basically, it's a textbook thundersleet sounding.

The saving grace so far is that we've primarily been getting sleet, which doesn't really accrete on power lines & branches like freezing rain does. That could change with tomorrow's round though...

BTW, been getting thundersleet for a good while now.

It's true though...

Getting thunder here now as well. Radar suggests DFW will likely be the bullsye for ice accretion & sleet accumulation with this round.

00z model runs were depressing all around. First of all, models are still completely clueless with respect to surface temps, by several degrees. All of DFW has fallen into the mid 20s as of 1am. But more concerning, they've all trended stronger with the 3rd & final wave Wednesday/Thursday while holding temps at/below freezing. It's plausible that could be the most significant round of icing for DFW. It would also mean FWD's current temp forecast is too high and the Winter Storm Warning would need to be extended again.

Looking at posts on Twitter, roads in/around Detroit don't seem to be as bad as you'd expect. That's perhaps the saving grace with temps around 32-34*F.

I meant for this subforum. It's going to be a decent snowstorm in a lot of places, but certainly not a big dog.

Very nice comma head on the radar/satellite. Definitely has that "look," although it will be more bark than bite.

While I'm sure it's the long range HRRR just HRRR-ing, I'm intrigued that it wants to really wrap this up to 992mb over Western OH / Southern IN and keep a closed 500mb low.

Seems like it's going to be a high-end WAA for Detroit. 4-6" appears to be a good call.