Powerball

The parameters over Dallas are already on the extreme end, and we haven't even reached peak heating / shear (not to mentiom, the best surge of moisture is still looming in Central TX). You can see the old outflow boundary from yesterday on the Satellite marked by a congested billowing CU field, slowly meandering NE, although nothing should come of it for now.

Today is really escalating quickly.

Hmmm, I'm liking the look of the 12z CAMs so far...

This "heat wave" is definitely looking to be a lot more messy for DFW and Oklahoma as a whole than what was depicted last week. Still plenty of heat/humidity to be had (seasonably-speaking), but with the upper level low parked over the Great Lakes / Ohio Valley forcing the jet so far south, these areas will seemingly remain susceptible to convective episodes that will force the surface front further SW than what the global models show (thus keeping high temps and solar insolation in check). The extreme stuff still appears to be a lock for SA / Austin and possibly Houston though.

18z HRRR was definitely a worst case scenario for DFW. The 00z and especially the 06z have backed off a fair bit, with somewhat stronger capping and somewhat slower timing That said, one thing which stands out (and while I'm not entirely convinced on the upscale growth part) is all the drier air above 850mb. This could allow for a few things, which is the cells remaining discrete for a longer period (which would be concerning as low level shear really picks up during the early evening hours), but also for outflow boundaries (with there no longer being a stable surface layer unlike the past 48-72 hours) to either trigger more numerous storms further SE than what the CAMs are currently depicting or cause them to propagate further SE than currently depicted on the CAMs given the negligible capping in place.

I'd say Wichita Falls and Lawton (that entire vicinity) for chasing. 18z HRRR was a supercell / tornadic bonanza for DFW proper though.

Be careful what you wish for. Parts of DFW have had multiple rounds of monster-sized hail (2-3"+ in diameter) the past several days.

Interestingly enough, although we've been sleeping on it, tomorrow is looking even more ominous for all of North Texas and Southern Oklahoma (including better tornadon potential), although capping might be a bit stronger and the flow (albeit still impressive) is a bit weaker

I will say though, for posterity, the parameter right over downtown Dallas are insane. I don't think I've ever see a Craven-Brooks signature of 160K...

Seeing the position of the outflow boundary, it's setting up to be a repeat of yesterday with respect to storm location / coverage. For everyone else in North Texas.

FWD finally gave up on making fetch happen, and cancelled the watch 1 hour early.

It's been a dud for Addison the entire period, probably one of the few areas in the entire Metroplex to not get any severe weather what so ever the past 1-2 weeks (or even a t'storm). I suppose it's a good thing in that we've avoided the hail damage... I'm sure Mansfield, DeSoto and Cedar Hill will get some more monster hail late tonight / early tomorrow morning with the next round looming.

*Along/South of I-30 DFW special...

This Summer so far is definitely giving shades of 1992.

And look at who's getting slammed yet again...

DFW looks to get a few more shots at severe weather tomorrow through Tuesday, although again highly conditional depending on both frontal placement and the timing of subtle MCVs riding the ridge. So the odds of a complete shut out this entire period seems low, but nothing shocks me about the weather any more. Temps could also get tricky as well on Monday with a potential late-season CAD setup.

She got a new breath of wind, and actually has a little bit of *OOMPH!!!* with it now...

Well, we finally got a little engine that could doing the best it can to break through the stable layer along the Denton/Cooke County line... EDIT: Annnd she's dead...

The Mansfield - DeSoto area always seems to get the goods (probably benefitting from a bit of an orographic boost via. Cedar Hill). But otherwise, yeah...

5% tornado risk has been added for eastern parts of DFW on the latest Day 1 outlook. Otherwise, no changes.

Very messy setup for DFW today, even including first 100*F potential for the year. And the CAMs, as usual, are of no help. Huge bom/bust potential either way.

Your experience in YBY is good and all, but to be clear, I was referring to a damaging drought affecting the Midwest as a whole causing tens of billions in damage, a ton of wildfires and causing extreme water restrictions, not an extended dry spell in a localized area for a few months with brown grass.

1988 and 2012 were definitely both on another level in terms of coverage, duration and impact for the Midwest as a whole... https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/1988–1990_North_American_drought https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012–2013_North_American_drought

I'm referring to a widespread severe/long-term drought akin to 1988, 2012, etc.

It's been a while since you all have had a legit drought, so you're finally.paying your dues.