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Powerball

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Everything posted by Powerball

  1. I'll take the bait... I'm not laughing at your health problems (and I certainly wish you get the help you deserve). I'm laughing at 2 things: 1. Your clapbacks at Stebo, because I just plain don't like him (the reason why has nothing to do with you). 2. The fact that your extremely unrealistic expectations for weather in Grand Rapids in spite of its climo, which has been explained to you ad-nauseam, has you becoming so unhinged that you're devolving into nonsensical diatribes over it with strangers on an internet forum. And I already suspected you have health problems, FYI. Just not the physical kind with the way you've been carrying on. I actually think it's sad (not funny), which is why I've been giving you Weenie reactions. I hope this helps and please be blessed!
  2. https://www.instagram.com/p/CvQPK8xv4Jd/?igshid=MzRlODBiNWFlZA%3D%3D
  3. Oddly enough, the temp dropped to 97*F from 98*F as of the 3pm observation at DFW despite nearly full sunshine. Might see a brief break in the 100*F+ streak after all... EDIT: Welp, never mind...
  4. Decent-looking appetizer cell has popped up over downtown Detroit. I might even go severe soon. EDIT: Has expanded to engulf much of the east side now.
  5. Here's a sanity check for the cliff jumpers from DTX. TL;DR = At least give these long summer days a chance to play out before declaring a bust... 000 FXUS63 KDTX 281118 AFDDTX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 311 AM EDT Fri Jul 28 2023 Shortwave moving through the Straights early this morning, with with mid level jet forcing supporting widespread showers and thunderstorms moving through northern Lake Michigan. However, as the activity propagates southeast, outflow boundary is outrunning the support and beginning to run into the warm and dry mild levels in place over southern Lower Michigan, where 700 MB temps of 12 C reside. If showers/thunderstorms don`t make it in, at the very least, the outflow/frontal boundary will likely hang around along/north of I-69 today, which could serve as focus for convection today, as 700 MB level begins to moisten up and temps cool/lower to around 10 C, making for a marginal cap, especially as surface dew pts ramp up into the 70s. Right now, seeing dew pts around 80 degrees around Quad Cities which will be directed toward far southern Lower Michigan this morning, with several upper level filaments also tracking through. With showers and now thunderstorms noted over northern Illinois (hires models not capturing), certainly need chance pops in for this morning. The issue is, it looks like we get into upper level negative PV advection/general subsidence for the afternoon, which suggests convective activity may be limited or non-existent during this time, allowing for instability to build to moderate to high levels. SREF weighted local probabilistic guidance suggests Mlcapes of 2000 J/kg, while the 12z NAM suggests MLcapes aoa 4000 J/kg, but upper 70 dew pts to near 80 degrees looks too high, low to mid 70s is more realistic. That moisture content will also make it tough for maxes to get much past 90 degrees, and that assumes skies will be mostly sunny-partly cloudy for a good portion of the afternoon. Either way, southeast Michigan should be primed for severe weather (mainly wind), with a significant shortwave/jet streak (0-6 km bulk shear of 50-60 knots) appearing to come out of Minnesota/northern Wisconsin late in the day. Lead edge of the wind gradient/height falls suggests activity developing by early evening (5-9 PM) and quickly growing upscale and diving southeast, as substantial 500 MB height fall center (30-60 M) is progged to track through Lower Michigan tonight.
  6. DTX has a pretty good post-analysis on this event, and more photos... https://www.weather.gov/dtx/severeweather07262023
  7. It's been happening a lot as of late.
  8. What's funny is that in hindsight, yesterday did play out quite similar to what's depicted in your post...
  9. Might as well go for back-to-back top 10 hottest summers...
  10. It's all good, as he can keep the freezing temps in the winter to himself.
  11. We had 100/80 several days earlier this season. And yes, it feels like a Sauna.
  12. Definitely seeing shades of 2022 with this Groundhog Day pattern. August will be the wild card in deciding whether this ends up being one of DFW's hottest summers on record. As it stands now, this will be a top 10 (if not top 5) hottest July on record, while the summer to-date is the 11th warmest.
  13. US grid operator PJM declares level one emergency amid scorching heat https://www.reuters.com/sustainability/climate-energy/us-grid-operator-pjm-declares-level-one-emergency-amid-scorching-heat-2023-07-27/
  14. Just like last week, this was a solid episode by all accounts for a major metro area that doesn't get these significant severe weather events often. Given the videos and damage pictures I've seen, not to mention the fact that there are well over 100K people without power, describing this as a underpeformance is kind of silly and tone deaf.
  15. Underperformance indeed... https://www.clickondetroit.com/features/2023/07/26/mipics-submit-your-severe-weather-photos-and-videos/?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=snd&utm_content=wdiv4
  16. The warning is now for 70 MPH winds... Severe Weather Statement National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 342 PM EDT Wed Jul 26 2023 MIC163-262000- /O.CON.KDTX.SV.W.0070.000000T0000Z-230726T2000Z/ Wayne MI- 342 PM EDT Wed Jul 26 2023 ...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 400 PM EDT FOR CENTRAL WAYNE COUNTY... At 341 PM EDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line extending from near Detroit Zoo to Downtown Detroit to near Grosse Ile, moving east at 55 mph. HAZARD...70 mph wind gusts. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Expect considerable tree damage. Damage is likely to mobile homes, roofs, and outbuildings. These severe storms will be near... Belle Isle around 345 PM EDT. Grosse Pointe around 350 PM EDT. Other locations impacted by these severe thunderstorms include Melvindale, Gibraltar, Rockwood, Harper Woods, Grosse Pointe Shores, Ecorse, Grosse Pointe Woods, Woodhaven, Lincoln Park and Grosse Pointe Park. People attending Comerica Park , and the Aretha Franklin Amphitheater should seek safe shelter immediately! PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a building. Torrential rainfall is occurring with these storms, and may lead to flash flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways. && LAT...LON 4202 8317 4203 8317 4202 8318 4209 8329 4244 8331 4245 8287 4236 8288 4232 8306 4230 8309 4224 8313 4217 8313 4213 8312 4206 8315 4200 8314 TIME...MOT...LOC 1941Z 253DEG 49KT 4244 8311 4233 8304 4211 8311 THUNDERSTORM DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED MAX HAIL SIZE...<.75 IN WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED MAX WIND GUST...70 MPH $$ AA
  17. High wind and damage reports are starting to trickle in from your area on the SPC page.
  18. And while nothing terribly impressive, a bit of a RIJ has formed on the back side of this.
  19. Decent-looking bow echo (on radar) pushing right into the city.
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