Powerball

At last...

Another 99*F for the books at DFW today. The first 100*F day of the year should finally happen tomorrow.

A similar thing happened to a NWS meteorologist in Indianapolis, simply because they translated warnings/advisories into Spanish. It's mental illness.

Nice to see some of you finally get some severe action.

Hi-Res models did loosely hint at the possibility, but they were struggling with gauging the strength of the cap. That said, the cold pool / outflow boundary from the MCS across KS / OK Wednesday morning was just enough of a trigger to weaken it. Had there been a bit stronger forcing / shear, it might have been a repeat of 6/9/19.

Per SPC, there were two reports of a 97 MPH wind and a 82 MPH wind gust reported in Harris County.

DFW only topped off at 92*F today due to more cloud covers and now the unexpected cap busters. Any shot at the first 100*F high is now off the table until Saturday at the earliest.

Some nice unexpected cap busters across DFW right now. Mostly sub-severe, but very intense lightning (ton of CTG strikes).

DFW did have several hours with a 79*F dewpoint and heat indices exceeding 110*F (topping out at 115*F).

Another 99*F for the books at DFW, unless a sneaky spike to 100*F happens within the next hour.

It's kind of funny, really. Last week, it was looking like DFW would be seeing days upon days of 100*F+ weather and sunny/dry conditions with no end in sight. There was so much hype about record-breaking oppressive heat. Fast forward to today and not only has DFW yet to hit 100*F+, but it's only been "seasonably warm" and there's a good chance the first 100*F+ day may not even happen at all with this "heat wave" before it ends on Wednesday. Plus, much of the period has been pretty cloudy due to persistent convective debris and/or post-outflow stratus clouds. EDIT: The long-advertised heat wave did verify for San Antonio, Austin and (to a lesser extent) Houston though. And granted, the humidity was certainly imrpessive althugh actual temps fell well short of expectations.

Between increased cloud cover, a weaker shortwave, somewhat weaker low level flow and somewhat drier air, today's setup looks a bit more messy than Thursday's. That's not saying much though, because the parameters are still impressive when you disregard Thursday's extremely high ceiling. It's looking more like a damaging straight-line wind threat today than anything. And it seems there will potentially be 2 separate areas of organized activity to watch later this afternoon / tonight. 1. I-20/I-30 corridors in Texas from Abilene to Texarkana (including DFW) 2. North/Central OK, including OKC and Tulsa. Many of the areas that got hit hardest on Thursday in Southern OK and parts of North Texas may very well be spared today.

And another one with word for DVD sized hail...

Low level shear is unimpressive (for now), but otherwise, talk about a powder keg...

"Hail Up to DVD Size"

And there it is...

A regular Tornado Watch with strong wording for hail/wind is likely the way they'll go. Looks like some initiation is trying to occur near Altus.

Ooof!!!

Not sure I've ever seen this wording in a MD... Mesoscale Discussion 1076 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0149 PM CDT Thu Jun 15 2023 Areas affected...Central/Eastern OK Panhandle...Western/Central OK...Eastern TX Panhandle...Far Northwest TX Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely Valid 151849Z - 152045Z Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent SUMMARY...Intense supercell thunderstorms capable of all severe hazards, including giant hail, hurricane-force wind gusts, and tornadoes, are expected across the region this afternoon and evening. DISCUSSION...Visible satellite imagery currently shows an expanding cumulus field from the central/eastern OK Panhandle down through the eastern TX Panhandle and into far northwest TX. Thus far, most of the cumulus within this field have a relatively flat appearance, with only a few pockets with more vertical development (i.e. over far southwest OK/far northwest TX and central OK Panhandle). Recent mesoanalysis suggests some convective inhibition remains, which is verified with the appearance of the cumulus field. Continued air mass destabilization is anticipated, with the limited convective inhibition likely eroding over the next hour. This erosion of the inhibition coupled with forcing for ascent attendant to the approaching shortwave trough, and additional mesoscale ascent related to the low-level confluence over the region, will likely result in convective initiation by 20Z (perhaps even sooner). The air mass over the region represents a rare combination of buoyancy of shear during any time of the year, but particularly mid June. Forecast sounding suggest MLCAPE from 3000 to 4000 J/kg and effective bulk shear from 60 to 70 kt when storms initiate. These type of environment will result in intense supercells, capable of all severe hazards, including giant hail (3"+ in diameter), hurricane-force wind gusts, and tornadoes. The tornado potential may be mitigated somewhat by the higher LCLs and relatively modest low-level shear. However, given the overall character of the environment, tornadic supercells cannot be ruled out. ..Mosier/Thompson.. 06/15/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...LUB...AMA... LAT...LON 36000116 36710153 36990125 36970023 35899812 34249711 33809804 33989945 34189999 34620034 36000116