Powerball

Mesoscale Discussion 1727 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0214 PM CDT Wed Jul 26 2023 Areas affected...Southeast lower MI into northwest OH Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 551... Valid 261914Z - 262045Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 551 continues. SUMMARY...The threat for damaging wind and possibly a brief tornado will continue and perhaps increase into late afternoon. DISCUSSION...A QLCS has recently intensified from southeast lower MI into northwest OH, with embedded bowing segments noted southwest of Detroit and west of Toledo. The 18Z DTX sounding was rather favorable for organized convection, with MLCAPE near 2000 J/kg (when modified for current observations) and effective shear of around 40 kt. With steepening low-level lapse rates and the well-organized character of the ongoing QLCS, the damaging-wind threat may increase with time until the system moves through the area. Also, while surface winds may tend to veer with time, a reasonably strong southwest low-level jet (as noted on the 18Z DTX sounding and recent DTX VWPs) will support sufficient low-level shear/SRH for a brief tornado threat with line-embedded circulations. ..Dean.. 07/26/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...CLE...DTX...IWX... LAT...LON 42548394 42868380 42878290 42368293 41878291 41438283 41138310 41118383 41168413 41208439 41478427 41778401 42138379 42548394

Agreed with Metro Detroit getting a decent hit with round 1. Pretty good heating is underway in that area, and there's now a good surge of moisture happening ahead of the ongoing complex.

Hopefully, that gap fills in for frostfern's sake...

Radar and satellite is looking good for you all again today.

Besides the fact that the more recent GFS runs are back to showing a hotter look across the country, He apparently doesn't understand how probabilities work, nor the meaning of "above average"...

WARNING: Expletive language...

Interesting cloud formation...

I saw a modest-looking hail core track over northern sections of Detroit a little while ago. I'll have to phone home and see how that went. EDIT: There was one Ping Pong-sized hail report on the NW side of the city, so far...

Between the Saharan Dust settling in and the death ridge seemingly not relenting, might have to begin worrying about drought conditions expanding across TX. A corridor along / just west of I-35 is already reporting severe to extreme drought conditions

Radar and satellite trends look A-1 as well. Not often that happens in that part of the country either...

I feel like you missed the perfect opportunity for a pun there...

It's not often you see these a hatched 30% risk probability for the Detroit area..

I don't believe DFW has yet either (during Met Summer). Several nightly maximum lows have been broken though. That said, DFW may be on track for a top 10 hottest July on record. It would be pretty impressive to achieve that back-to-back.

The official high yesterday was 108*F.

As of 3pm, DFW is at 107*F, making it the new hottest day of the year.We're two degrees away from tying the hottest day of the year in 2022.

With a high of 106*F, today is the new hottest day of the year for DFW...

Some nice garden variety storms moving through It's a nice way to get brief relief from the 100s.

Achieved an intra-hour high of 101*F early in the afternoon before the outflow boundary (pseudo-front) moved through. DFW's currently at 10 days AOA 100*F for the season. I did speak too soon about the cloud cover, because an altostratus cloud deck quickly filled in not long after my post this morning and stuck around for much of the day.

At last, we have a morning with plenty of blue sky and good insolation. We'll be interesting to see what difference that makes with the highs. Either way, off to the races!

Ooof!!!