Powerball

I remember when the GFS had an Atlanta / Charlotte crusher.

Congrats MSP!

^^^This will age like milk by the weekend...

We already know the 84hr NAM (in its typical fashion) is going to be a MSP special, lol...

So everyone in Chicago, Milwaukee and MI/OH/IN now know who to blame for their rainer...

Wouldn't throw in the towel yet, even for the Ohio Valley. For one, this storm is still several days out (so plenty of time for more shifts). Also, a fair number of the ensembles still have a track across the eastern lakes. But in addition, we know the models have had the tendency to be way too cavalier with how far west and how strong these systems get at this time frame. This storm could of course break that trend given the upper level features at play, but it's still something to keep in mind until we're closer in.

Pretty decent jump west in fact. Has deform snows well into Iowa and a 1005mb low in Missouri.

Looks like the 00z GFS is going to end up even further west.

With the recent advent of the Snow Squall Warning, there's even less incentive to issue a Blizzard Warning for those short fuse events such as 2/11/03.

CLE has the friction off Lake Erie to enhance the wind there, and of course even if they miss out on the synoptic snow, they're bound to make up for it with LES.

It's still early. There will be plenty more shifting (in track & intensity) with this system yet to come.

March 2008 (for one example)?

One thing to consider with this storm is with the upper level low possibly closing off and maybe a decent trowal setting up, there will be good convective instability in the cold sector. So despite the wind fracturing dendrites some, the snowfall rates should be enhanced and there will likely be some aggregation of snowflakes near the transition zone, which should both aid in relatively efficient accumulation.

Would be one for the history books in Detroit, for sure...

There was definitely a sharp drop off in amounts/impact from east to west with February 21st - 23rd storm. The areas along the Detroit river into SW Ontario were hit the hardest.

And given 45 years of aging, I'd like to think the power lines (which are mostly above ground) and transformers are a lot more precarious in the Detroit area these days.

We're talking about 2 different events. I'm thinking of February 21st-22nd, 2003.

Correction: 958mb just north of Toronto. Basically a poor man's 1978, haha!

lol. 12z GFS bombs the low to ~970mb over Lake Erie...

12z GFS coming in real hot. Not quite EURO extreme, but would still be a major winter storm for much of the subforum.

Seems the final total will be 16 confirmed tornadoes.

Would be a ton of stranded & angry Christmas travelers at ORD with the 00z EURO solution...

February 2003 might have featured blizzard conditions, but I'm pretty sure there wasn't an actual warning, at least not in the Detroit area. I think that was RogueWaves' point.

It's a significant solution for sure, and likely the ceiling.

Probably because verbatim, for the vast majority of the subforum, it's a bit too strong and too far NW. Most of Wisconsin, Iowa, parts of N. Illinois and parts of Minnesota do well, but everyone else (Chicagoland included) sees mostly rain or mixing issues followed by massive dry slotting.