Powerball
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Everything posted by Powerball
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It did try to finally cut towards the end there, but still too little too late for those on the northern edge.
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It makes sense. As the first wave trends beefier, it surpresses heights in its wake that forces the 2nd wave further south, along with the better forcing/moisture.
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One trend that seems to be legit is that the models are getting beefier with the amounts from that first round. The 00z NAM continues that trend.
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Southern Plains Winter 2021-2022
Powerball replied to Iceresistance's topic in Central/Western States
It looks like DFW will be safe from precip between now and Midnight. -
Truer words never spoken, lol.
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Oh I'm sure, because there was still another 6 hours of snow to go.
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Seems like more the area of snow expanded on the edges, which made up for any shifts. It's also a bit wetter.
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Can someone please post the 18z EURO map?
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Relax. RAP is notorious for being way NW / too amped in its long range. It's mostly being posted as weenie fodder for those on the northern edge.
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That 21z RAP would probably look like the 12z GFS run from 1/29, if extrapolated. But alas, that is the ceiling.
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As I said earlier, the last time it got something right was GHD 1 right, haha! But it's a northern outlier right now any way.
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See bottom of page 15.
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It did get GHD 1 right. So anything's possible, lol.
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I think he meant in terms of the epic amounts. Those might end up south of the border. But in terms of getting a decent storm, then yeah, that seems to be guaranteed for Southern MI.
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You're getting snow for sure. Just may not be as much as you would like.
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You mean there was a change in orientation.
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I'm just waiting for the "nowcasting time!" posts.
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No. The evolution of the upper level trough and jet dynamics is what will dictate the strength of this storm and the location of the best forcing.
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The 12z EURO is also slightly drier. I will make a final call after the 00z run, but the 10-15" prediction I made earlier (with isolated higher amounts) doesn't look too bad
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Jan 2014 also started to shift SE before correcting NW at the last minute.
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If there's any solace, there was at least GHD 2 that did the opposite. It had started to trend south at this point on the models, then it corrected back north at the last minute, which ended up being correct. Granted, it was a different setup and not exacly a Jan '67-esque big dog, but my point is I wouldn't completely rule anything out just yet, especially with a +NAO and the jet dynamics at play. It's not like you need this to shift all the way NW from KY/PA, but just a 50-mile shift.
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What/who do we have to sacrifice in order to get the 1/29 12z GFS run back?
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Another bump southward.
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Is "professional meteorology analyst" now the PC label for "weather weenie?"
