Powerball

I would be lying if I said I wasn't a bit a concerned that ongoing MCS in OK will impact North Texas later today. Upper level shear is kind of lacking and capping is pretty stout now (which botg should make it harder to maintain organization), but this complex is tied to a MCV which tend to do their own thing while both the corfidi vectors and instability gradient would support propagation into this region.

*laughs in Great Plains*

It may have been possible, but not easily accessible like it is today.

After a mix of clouds and sun all morning / early afternoon, it has suddenly turned dark with billowing CU. Might have some storms soon.

The radar showed the little complex really bowing out as it moved through the city There's even a storm report of metal roofing blowing off one of the high rises downtown. 1645 UNK 5 SE DETROIT WAYNE MI 4233 8305 SECTION OF METAL ROOFING BLOWN OFF AT THE 150 WEST JEFFERSON BUILDING IN DOWNTOWN DETROIT. (DTX) 1652 58 2 S GROSSE POINTE LCZ460 MI 4236 8291 MEASURED AT PECHE ISLAND LIGHT. (DTX) 1657 68 4 NNE GROSSE POINTE LCZ460 MI 4243 8287 MEASURED AT GROSSE POINTE YACHT CLUB. (DTX)

lol... Severe Weather Statement National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 1259 PM EDT Wed Jun 1 2022 MIC163-011715- /O.CON.KDTX.SV.W.0012.000000T0000Z-220601T1715Z/ Wayne MI- 1259 PM EDT Wed Jun 1 2022 ...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 115 PM EDT FOR NORTHEASTERN WAYNE COUNTY... At 1258 PM EDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line extending from near Grosse Pointe to 6 miles east of Belle Isle to 12 miles east of Grosse Ile, moving east at 45 mph. HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees. These severe thunderstorms will remain over mainly rural areas of northeastern Wayne County, including the following locations... Northeast Detroit, Highland Park, Harper Woods, Grosse Pointe Shores, Hamtramck, Grosse Pointe Woods, Grosse Pointe Park, Grosse Pointe Farms, Ferndale and Hazel Park. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... This is a DANGEROUS SITUATION. These storms are producing wind damage across portions of downtown Detroit. SEEK SHELTER NOW inside a sturdy structure and stay away from windows. Continuous cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms. Move indoors immediately. Lightning is one of nature`s leading killers. Remember, if you can hear thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning. && LAT...LON 4243 8284 4236 8288 4234 8300 4233 8303 4232 8305 4245 8318 4245 8287 4243 8288 TIME...MOT...LOC 1658Z 259DEG 38KT 4242 8296 4234 8286 4214 8290 HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED MAX HAIL SIZE...<.75 IN WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH $$ IRL

51 MPH wind gust at KDET.

A nice looking severe MCS seems to be pushing into Detroit right now. Can't say I'm not jealous.

And while we're at it, Spring 2022 would tie for the 6th warmest on record and would be the warmest in 10 years (2012).

Will have to await final confirmation, but with a high of 95*F and a low of 77*F today, that should be good enough to make May 2022 the 5th warmest on record for DFW (tied with 2012).

For a day with a 15% hatched tornado risk level, yesterday was pretty underwhelming with only 5 reports. That said, there were ton of wind reports (over 150).

It's such a regular occurrence that you'd think they'd cover all bases by accounting for such an potential outcome in their forecasts.

-NAO/-AO /+PNA and MJO in Phase 7/8 definitely supports a cool first half of June for the eastern 2/3rds of the country.

Forecasts 10-14 days out have always had poor predictability and are bound to change, even significantly. There are so many factors on a mesoscale level (which might as well be impossible to predict at such a long range) that can influence how large-scale patterns evolve and the resultant temperature/precipitation people observe. At best, predictions that far out are educated guesses based on past observations. But if weather is anything like history, it can rhyme but never repeats. As far as short-term forecasts, also in recent history, we as average joes have also become way overexposed to a lot more weather forecasting tools than we were traditionally privy to, and that's without necessarily having a complete understanding of the science behind them. If you think back in the 90s or even the early 2000s, we weren't able to easily pull up radars, satellites, model outputs, skew-t soundings, indices, SSTs, MJO plots, etc. that are used for predictions like we are in 2022. I guess my point being, I'm not so sure NOAA's accuracy is any worse or better today than it was in the past. I think it's mostly an issue of information overload for us average joes in combination with modern meteorologists' desire to be overly precise with their forecasts that it leaves them more vulnerable to critiques when things don't go as they predict That's my take, but maybe I missed your angle...

DFW made it to 91*F today, with not a cloud in the sky. Shaping up to be a top shelf holiday weekend!

Provided there isn't an excessive amount of cloud cover for the bulk of the day Thursday, DFW should make it through May without a single sub-70°F high.

Manf of the ensembles do show decent troughing too, though not to the extent of the OP.

Long range GFS has really been trolling you guys. I'm sure it will eventually back off some on the extent of the troughing and cooler air, but still...

Not impressed with today, based on current radar/satellite trends and the chaotic moisture inflow. Shear & forcing looks good though, so I guess that supports the enhanced risk.

Yeah, it was a fail here. But I had pretty low expectations already. In fact, I'm happy that convection and its debris / outflows didn't disrupt our 90*F+ streak. Multiple longevity records were tied and/or broken.

This was somewhere in Ontario, Canada yesterday. The uploader didn't bother to share the exact location and there's no sound

DFW reached an intra-hour high of 92°F at 1:01pm before the cold front moved through. So yes, the record has been tied!

Models continue to struggle with convection this morning, as the radar remains quiet this morning acroas Southern OK and North TX. This afternoon could get interesting. The same models have been indicating a line of storms developing mid/late afternoon along the front as it eases SE. Most of them hold off on organization until just SE of DFW, although initiation slightly earlier than projected would make a big difference for impacts in DFW proper. This is certainly a plausible solution as the cap should be non-existent by midday. If that happens, soundings are certainly supportive of damaging downburst winds and flash flooding.

Welp, that's looking like a big fat fail right now...