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Powerball

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    The equillibrium is kind of balancing out right now for the Plains, which has been fairly quiet region-wide the past several years. I'm more interested to see when the tide will turn for DFW specifically. It still continues to luck out so far with near-misses from the widespread/intense severe weather events we've seen (aside from some modest hail storms), ever since the June 2019 Derecho and then the October 2019 tornado in Dallas. I imagine the Metroplex's luck will also run out eventually.
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    "Wind-driven softball size hail"
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    FWD has added a severe wording to their grids tomorrow, with likely PoPs tonight and 50% PoPs tomorrow
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    Also, they're calling for hail up to 4" in diameter. It's not often you see that with a watch box.
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    It seems the Hi-Res models are struggling with whether the corfidi vectors or instability gradient will drive storm propagation, provided it does organize into a complex. The former would support a more NE-ward trajectory, and the latter would support a more SE-ward trajectory.
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    Hi-Res models are now looking really chaotic with convection evolution this evening. Some are even bringing a MCS through the Metroplex, with little activity in OK.
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    Report on the SPC website shows golf ball sized hail was observed in Andover with the squall line along the cold front (Round 2).
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