Powerball

Shame.

At this point, there's fairly high confidence that there will be multiple severe weather episodes during this period. The most ominous days for a widespread severe weather outbreak appear to be Monday (5/2) and Wednesday (5/4), as a pair of strong shortwave rotate through the region around the base of an upper level trough and there will be sufficient moisture return The main thing these systems will have going for them (that has largely been lacking with Plains severe weather setups as of late) is good directional *AND* low-level shear supportive of rotating supercells. Timing and cloud cover, as usual, will be the main question marks when determining the locations that will face the highest risk. Shortwave #1 Shortwave #2: Shortwave #3:

Out of curiosity, why? They may suck at predicting it, but they can't control it. Believe it or not though, there are parts of the country have had a stellar Spring so far.

And speak of the devil, now there's a Severe Thunderstorm Watch until 6pm for the northern suburbs of DFW:

Latest Hi-Res models are all bringing organized convection into DFW (mainly areas north of I-20) this evening.

SPC has put the NW half of DFW under the slight risk area in the latest outlook. 12z HRRR sounding doesn't look too shabby either.

It's highly conditional obviously (mostly depending on how tonight's convection evolves), but I wouldn't sleep on the severe weather potential tomorrow in DFW either. The soundings are looking decent (no cap, solid lapse rates, modest low-level shear, etc.), even though none of the models show much activity due to nebulous forcing. I wouldn't be surprised to see a slight risk area from the SPC either.

The new 30-yer averages do give credence to the feeling that the start/end of seasons has shifted forward about 1 month, with April trending cooler and October trending warmer.

18z GFS says "don't be do sure!"

I'd figured you'd still be in Florida right now.

Early indications are the Dakotas could be looking at yet another late season blizzard this weekend.

Eventually, just the essence of stronger heating from the increasingly higher sun angle has to overcome the stupid that has been this upper level pattern for you guys these past several Springs.

It is a small town operation, likely with staff that is relatively young/inexperienced for these types of situations. I'd cut them a little slack.

Oh, and the latest freeze on record for DFW is 4/13/1997. So statistically, we should be home free from any more freezes.

Certainly part of the reason we've had a warm spring (relative to average) and a more active severe weather season so far. Since 3/25, we've only had 1 day below 70*F, and that day was 69*F. Also, last freeze was on 3/11 (spot on with average).

FWIW, 94*F is just the convective temperature right now. As the airmass is modified throughout the day at different levels in the atmosphere, the convective temperature can increase or decrease. In today's case, the height falls / cooling mid-levels expected, steady advection of low-level moisture keeping dewpoints in the mid/upper 60s and a shortwave that will enhance the forcing of updrafts should all help to lower the convective temps and erode the cap more efficiently than yesterday.

000 FXUS64 KOUN 120844 AFDOUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Norman OK 344 AM CDT Tue Apr 12 2022 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 319 AM CDT Tue Apr 12 2022 Severe Weather: A highly conditional risk for severe weather exists to the east of the dryline this afternoon, with uncertainty higher than normal regarding storm initiation. Much of the uncertainty is related to the degree of capping as well as the degree of subsidence that will be over our area in the wake of a southern stream wave clearly evident on water vapor imagery currently ejecting out of northern Mexico. The timing and positioning of the wave will be such that much of our area will be too far north and west to benefit from any lift associated with the wave and will instead be in the subsident region of the wave during peak heating this afternoon. With the parent upper trough still well to our west across the Rockies we do not expect much in the way of broader large scale ascent or mid-level cooling to help initiate storms. It will therefore be mainly up to the dryline circulation as our main forcing mechanism for convective initiation this afternoon. Models have been fairly consistent in their lack of support for convective initiation across much of the area (outside of the ECM model) for days now, which does not add confidence we will see much activity at all this afternoon. However, models are not infallible (see yesterday`s convection across southeast OK) and forecast soundings show little to no CIN remaining along the dryline by 21z this afternoon. It would not take much more than some localized backing/convergence along the dryline to lead to initiation. So while we are currently not expecting widespread coverage of storms, it is entirely possible we see one or two thunderstorms along the dryline by late this afternoon. Perhaps the most likely scenario will be thunderstorms developing and moving into our area out of north Texas on the northern periphery of the southern stream wave, with little to no activity developing across portions of north-central Oklahoma.

000 FXUS64 KTSA 120856 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 356 AM CDT Tue Apr 12 2022 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... The prospects for severe storms forming to the west along the dryline late this afternoon and migrating into our area this evening appear low due to subsidence behind the subtropical wavementioned above. .LONG TERM... (Tonight through Monday) Issued at 338 AM CDT Tue Apr 12 2022 Lingering storms with the wave this evening will be moving out early, and most of the night is then likely to be quiet.

Nice write up for tomorrow by FWD... 000 FXUS64 KFWD 112005 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 305 PM CDT Mon Apr 11 2022 ...New Long Term... .LONG TERM... /NEW/ /Tuesday through Monday/ While the longwave upper level trough will remain across the Intermountain West Tuesday before ejecting out in the plains Wednesday, the primary feature of interest to us is a strong shortwave trough currently near Baja that will rotate around the longwave and through Texas on Tuesday. It is rather unusual to be able to spot and track these shortwave disturbances so clearly on water vapor this time of the year, but being able to do so in the current data and in model potential vorticity forecast raises the confidence that strong forcing will spread over North and Central Texas Tuesday afternoon. Lift is just one of three important ingredients for convection. The second ingredient is moisture, and after a couple days of strong return flow off of the Gulf, we certainly have enough of that in place. The final ingredient is instability, and it`s the linchpin in this forecast. There will be instability below an inversion or cap, but that cap means the atmosphere is effectively stable and thus the 3rd ingredient is missing...that is unless the stable layer/cap can be eroded. There are a few ways to break a cap, one through heating and moistening of the surface airmass which is easy to predict and anticipate. The other is through dynamic lift, much harder for forecasters and computer models alike to predict. This explains why there are a variety of forecast solutions - ranging from widespread convection erupting over the region during the afternoon to nothing happening at all. (The models just don`t know how much of the cap to erode.) For the forecast I am leaning toward the more convectively active forecast solutions. The reason for this is that lifting of a cap is easier when the lapse rates above the cap are nearly dry adiabatic, which they will be tomorrow. This means that the lift tomorrow isn`t spent lifting/modifying a thermodynamically stable mid level. Instead the lift more effectively reaches down to the level of the capping inversion and cools that layer...allowing the very unstable air residing in the lowest part of the atmosphere to be realized in the form of convection. Given the strength of the forcing/lift and its timing, our storms may not wait for peak heating and may not initially form on the dryline like in our usual spring time severe weather events. Storms could form as early as 1 or 2 pm. Increasing wind fields ahead of the approaching shortwave trough will result in organized wind shear, meaning that once storms develop they will be capable of becoming supercells and producing a variety of severe weather. Very large hail (baseball or larger) is the primary threat, but damaging winds and tornadoes are also possible. Storms will rapidly move east and northeast through the afternoon and early evening hours. As the forcing from the shortwave trough moves out of the region during the evening hours we should see activity track east and the region may be in a lull for a few hours Tuesday night. An arriving cold front may spark up some additional showers and storms early Wednesday morning mainly across East and Central Texas. Severe weather is possible with this activity too, but the more linear storm mode and diminishing wind shear and instability suggest it`s a lower end threat.

It's really struggling. EDIT: "The little storm that could...I mean couldn't"