Powerball

On the flip side, a last minute bump north with GHD 2 put Detroit in the bullseye.

True to the bolded. That's why I said it's all boils down to what data they used to make that map. Perhaps their intention was to only focus on first order sites where co-op observers measure snow using NWS equipment and guidelines.

I'm not sure what you mean. NWS has a team of volunteers all across the country who do ground reports of snowfall using NWS-required guidelines and NWS equipment, to ensure accurate measurements. For the purpose of climate recordkeeping, these Co-op volunteers only observe snowfall at sites where an actual human is on site collecting data (versus an ASOS). There are also a few WFOs where local TV station or FAA employees are authorized to be official reporters. But this isn't typical. Then of course, there are actual NWS employees and NWS offices. The problem with Cocorahs and even trained storm spotters (who aren't the same as Co-op observers) is there's a greater likelihood their reports will inaccurate since they haven't undergone the training to measure snow properly and don't have the proper equipment. We don't know if they're slant sticking, measuring drifts, etc.

My guess is that map is based on snowfall measurements from first order weather stations, and not measurements from storm spotters. So it may not necessarily be wrong, but based on a specific set of data.

The other thing about 1978 was the hype leading up to it. If I'm not mistaken, it was similar to 1999 in a way with Blizzard headlines a good week out. Not to mention, there was pretty good consensus amongst the (primitive?) forecast models it would be an intense cyclone well in advance. Us weather weenies know Detroit got screwed by what was ultimately a last minute NW shift and the storm deepening even more than what was projected. But the average joe doesn't pay attention to those type of details. EDIT: I'd say the only storm that came closest in terms of hype (in recent history) was actually GHD 1.

The recent Buffalo storm is about as perfect of a synoptic setup as you can get for epic snow amounts. *Closed upper level low *Negative tilt trough *Rapidly deepening gulf low *Strong 850mb Jet (TROWAL) *No blocking to force coastal transfer A system along those lines seem to be like a unicorn these days in the western half of the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. With this sysyem, the key will be getting favorable thermals to align with the best forcing, getting the best forcing to train over the same areas for the storm's entirety and for the best forcing to not end up so far above the DGZ that snow ratios take a hit.

EURO shows a widespread 8-12" on the map I see. A 10-15" event (with narrow banding of slightly higher amounts) seems reasonable to expect, IMO.

Sure, but that's why they're called outliers/extremes. That said, I'd love nothing more than for the GFS to happen for you all.

I'd bet money the EURO's totals will end up closer to correct than not.

It is interesting that the GEFS are generally NW of the OP run, especially with the other models SE of it (some considerably).

Even the 10:1 ratio map (likely also too conservative) on the GFS is pretty impressive. It would be Detroit's largest snowstorm ever, with 12" falling in 9 hours.

GGEM would be a nasty sleet storm for DFW, and GFS would be a nasty ice storm. Awful...

12z GFS does, however, show an impressive thumping with 0.75" to 1" of QPF in 6hr from C. Illinois to NE Indiana up to Detroit. Easily 1-2"+ per hour with blizzard conditions for that period. This is the only run to show something like it though. Most likely the ceiling in terms of potential.

I don't think the QPF amounts were 3", but they were still insanely high when they saw all that sleet from GHD I.

I would legit be jealous if that happened.

Boston gonna Boston.

Several weeks ago, @Stevo6899 did predict that Chicago might end with 10" more for for the season than Detroit, when all said & done. This storm, as currently depicted on the models, would definitely be the one to test that prediction.

We're going to be having power grid issues and another deep/prolonged freeze again here, so yeah, you guys will definitely get buried like you did last February.

Who is this stranger that is posting?

*IF* (big if) DFW manages to avoid seeing mesurable precipitation with the 1/31 system, this would tie for the 2nd driest January on record.

And of course, now the models are showing a system on the last day of the month that might just ruin our top 10 (let alone top 5) driest January on record...

A top 10 driest January on record seems to be a lock for DFW. Could even be a top 5 driest if tomorrow's system and the system on the 27th fails to produce measurable precipitation. Will likely see an expansion of the extreme drought conditions for Thursday's drought monitor.

Brtual... And the Soil Moisture's really drying up too:

Pretty crazy that we're halfway through Met Winter and Nashville has seen more snow than Chicago.