Powerball

The equillibrium is kind of balancing out right now for the Plains, which has been fairly quiet region-wide the past several years. I'm more interested to see when the tide will turn for DFW specifically. It still continues to luck out so far with near-misses from the widespread/intense severe weather events we've seen (aside from some modest hail storms), ever since the June 2019 Derecho and then the October 2019 tornado in Dallas. I imagine the Metroplex's luck will also run out eventually.

"Wind-driven softball size hail"

FWD has added a severe wording to their grids tomorrow, with likely PoPs tonight and 50% PoPs tomorrow

Also, they're calling for hail up to 4" in diameter. It's not often you see that with a watch box.

It seems the Hi-Res models are struggling with whether the corfidi vectors or instability gradient will drive storm propagation, provided it does organize into a complex. The former would support a more NE-ward trajectory, and the latter would support a more SE-ward trajectory.

Hi-Res models are now looking really chaotic with convection evolution this evening. Some are even bringing a MCS through the Metroplex, with little activity in OK.

Report on the SPC website shows golf ball sized hail was observed in Andover with the squall line along the cold front (Round 2).

Andover's about to get slammed again by a line of severe storms that has blown up along the cold front. Severe Weather Statement National Weather Service Wichita KS 901 PM CDT Fri Apr 29 2022 KSC015-173-300230- /O.CON.KICT.SV.W.0038.000000T0000Z-220430T0230Z/ Sedgwick KS-Butler KS- 901 PM CDT Fri Apr 29 2022 ...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 930 PM CDT FOR NORTHEASTERN SEDGWICK AND WEST CENTRAL BUTLER COUNTIES... At 900 PM CDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line extending from near Potwin to Downtown Wichita, moving east at 40 mph. HAZARD...70 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail. SOURCE...Public. IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect considerable tree damage. Wind damage is also likely to mobile homes, roofs, and outbuildings. Locations impacted include... Wichita, Andover, Park City, Valley Center, Bel Aire, Goddard, Maize, Benton, Downtown Wichita, Kechi, Eastborough, West Wichita, East Wichita, Eisenhower National Airport, Northeast Wichita, Mcconnell Air Force Base, Jabara Airport and Oaklawn. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 1100 PM CDT for south central Kansas. For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a building. && LAT...LON 3766 9763 3778 9747 3791 9732 3791 9716 3792 9715 3792 9703 3760 9720 TIME...MOT...LOC 0200Z 278DEG 33KT 3789 9707 3769 9734 THUNDERSTORM DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED MAX HAIL SIZE...1.00 IN WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED MAX WIND GUST...70 MPH $$ CUELLAR