Powerball

Today's risk area has also been expanded a bit: SPC AC 030521 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1221 AM CDT Sun Apr 03 2022 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA INTO NORTHWEST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are expected across parts of southwest Oklahoma into western Texas this afternoon and evening. Severe wind gusts and large hail will be possible with these storms. A couple of strong storms are also possible across the southern Florida Peninsula. ...Synopsis... Early-morning water vapor imagery reveals a prominent upper-level shortwave trough transversing the Great Lakes region, with a pair of weaker disturbances noted over the northern Rockies and approaching the southern CA coast. A weak surface low over the upper OH River Valley will migrate into the Northeast through the day while a lee cyclone over the northern High Plains will shift into the Plains by this evening. A lee trough/dryline will mix eastward into the Plains through the afternoon in tandem with the northern High Plains low. The combination of the falling surface pressure across the western Plains and a modest lee cyclone over the southern High Plains will strengthen southeasterly flow off the TX Gulf coast, spreading 50-55 F dewpoints into west TX and southwestern OK by late afternoon. ...Southwest Oklahoma into southwest Texas... Thunderstorm development appears likely in the vicinity of a weak surface low and along the surface trough/dryline, from southeast NM/west TX into western OK around peak heating. The observed Saturday evening Midland, TX RAOB reveals a dry boundary layer with around 7 C/km lapse rates aloft, which should be maintained through the day as weak broad scale ascent ahead of the CA wave steepens lapse rates. Initial storms are forecast to develop in a steep-lapse-rate environment, which may support a few dry microbursts across southwest TX. Loosely organized convection will move east by late afternoon/early evening into richer boundary-layer moisture as flow aloft strengthens. Consequently, the risk for large hail will accompany the more intense updrafts. Into the overnight hours, waning instability will diminish the severe potential.

Monday's outlook has been shifted a bit further NW into far southern OK, and a broad 5% tornado risk area has been added (including DFW): SPC AC 030556 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1256 AM CDT Sun Apr 03 2022 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHERN OK INTO CENTRAL/EASTERN TX AND THE LOWER MS VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... A broad area of severe-thunderstorm potential will exist Monday across central/eastern Texas, eastward into the Lower Mississippi Valley vicinity through Monday night. Damaging wind gusts, large hail and tornadoes will all be possible. ...OK/TX/ArkLaTex... A somewhat broad, and neutral to positive-tilt upper trough over the southwestern U.S. will develop eastward to the Ozarks/Sabine Valley vicinity by Tuesday morning. As this occurs, increasing midlevel southwesterly flow will overspread parts of central/eastern TX into the Lower MS Valley. Additionally, a south/southwesterly low-level jet will increase to around 40-50 kt during the evening and overnight across eastern TX into the lower MS Valley. The evolution of surface pattern appears somewhat messy and uncertain. A stalled front will reside from northwest TX into central OK and the Mid-MS Valley early in the period. Elevated thunderstorms may be ongoing along this boundary Monday morning across OK and far north TX. This activity should spread eastward or dissipate through the morning, but steep midlevel lapse rates could allow for some marginal hail. Southerly low-level flow will transport Gulf moisture northward through the day, with 60s surface dewpoints as far north as the Red River/far southern OK possible by afternoon. Mid to upper 60s dewpoints may make it as far north as I-20. Coupled with steep midlevel lapse rates, moderate destabilization is expected despite somewhat modest diurnal heating. An EML/capping around 850-700 mb will likely limit thunderstorm activity for much of the day across TX. By early evening, a weak low is forecast to develop over northwest TX and a cold front will shift east across OK/north TX to the ArkLaTex overnight. Initial supercells are possible in the vicinity of the surface low and southward along the cold front/dryline composite. While storms maintain discrete mode, large hail and damaging gusts will be possible across north/central TX. However, it is unclear how long discrete cells may be maintained. An increasing low-level jet and deep-layer flow parallel to the surface boundary suggests upscale development into a QLCS is likely. Nevertheless, favorable low-level shear will exist and support mesovortex formation within any line that develops. Damaging gusts and a few tornadoes appear possible across parts of north/east TX into the ArkLaTex during the evening/nighttime hours.

Just curious, why is this in the complaint thread?

SPC Day 2 Outlook https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1235 AM CDT Sat Apr 02 2022 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are expected across parts of northwest Texas and southwest Oklahoma Sunday evening. Strong wind gusts and large hail will be possible with these storms. A couple of strong storms also are possible across west Texas and the southern Florida Peninsula. ...OK/TX... Westerly low-amplitude flow across the western half of the CONUS will amplify as a midlevel shortwave trough develops east/southeast to the Upper MS Valley vicinity. A second midlevel trough will pivot eastward across the southwestern states as well. A weak shortwave impulse will eject eastward across the southern Rockies into the southern Plains during the late afternoon/evening ahead of the western trough. This lead impulse will provide increasing ascent across western TX into OK by late afternoon/early evening. At the surface, a cold front is forecast to shift east/southeast across the central Plains and into northern OK during the afternoon/evening. This front will stall across northwest OK as a weak surface low is forecast to develop over eastern NM/western TX. A dryline also will exist from near the TX Panhandle/western OK border into southwest TX around 00z. Increasing southerly low-level flow will result in modest moisture return to the east of the dryline/south of the cold front, with dewpoints generally reaching into the mid 50s F to possibly near 60 F. While boundary-layer moisture will be modest, steep midlevel lapse rates and increasing midlevel moisture will support MLCAPE as high as 1500 J/kg. A weak capping inversion may preclude convective initiation until after 00z when a 35-45 kt low level jet is expected to increase and strong ascent arrives with the shortwave impulse. Once storms develop, vertically veering wind profiles with 35+ kt effective bulk shear magnitudes and elongated hodographs will support supercells capable of large hail. Steep low-level lapse rates and relatively dry sub-cloud layer air also will support strong, locally damaging gusts. The severe threat should diminish/become more conditional with southward extent given weaker forcing and potentially stronger capping. However, should convection develop southward along the dryline across parts of west TX, sporadic strong gusts and hail could accompany this activity for a few hours during the late afternoon/early evening. SPC Day 3 Outlook: https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day3otlk.html SPC AC 020734 Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0234 AM CDT Sat Apr 02 2022 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL TEXAS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... A broad area of severe thunderstorm potential will exist Monday across central/eastern Texas, and spread east into the Lower Mississippi Valley vicinity through Monday night. Damaging wind gusts, large hail and tornadoes will all be possible. ...Synopsis... A neutral to positively tilted upper trough will quickly eject east from the southwest U.S. to the Ozarks/east Texas on Monday. A large warm sector ahead of the trough will result in a broad area of severe potential from central/eastern TX into the Lower MS Valley/central Gulf Coast vicinity. A surface low over northern IL will dissipate as it shifts east across the Midwest, leaving a nearly stationary cold front extending from the mid-MS Valley into central OK and western TX. As the western trough shifts east, a weak surface low is forecast to develop over western TX and track east in the vicinity of north TX or southern OK. Low-level southerly flow will transport mid 60s to low 70s surface dewpoints northward into central and eastern TX and low to mid 60s as far north as the Red River Valley. Steepening midlevel lapse rates will support moderate destabilization. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop in the vicinity of a dryline, and also in the warm advection regime in the vicinity of the quasi-stationary cold front across central/southern OK. Vertically veering wind profiles, with speeds increasing quickly with height, will support initial supercells across the warm sector from central into eastern TX. Large hail, damaging gusts and a few tornadoes appear possible with this activity through the afternoon/evening hours. As the low-level jet increases during the evening, upscale development into an eastward-advancing MCS is possible across the Sabine Valley vicinity. During the evening and overnight hours, the southwesterly low-level jet will increase and spread east across LA and the lower MS Valley into western AL. A warm front extending from the ArkLaTex vicinity to southern MS/AL during the evening will lift northward through the overnight hours to roughly central MS/AL, and will demarcate the northern extent of at least mid-60s surface dewpoints. Severe thunderstorms will be possible with any MCS/QLCS that develops across TX/LA and shifts eastward overnight, as well as with any semi-discrete convection that may develop. Forecast hodographs across the region will be quite large given the strength of low-level flow, and instability will be more than sufficient to support a risk for damaging gusts a few tornadoes. ..Leitman.. 04/02/2022 CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z CURRENT UTC TIME: 1123Z (6:23AM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME

Even if the strong/severe storms don't hit DFW directly, there seems to be good model consensus that a thunderstorm complex will develop close enough to DFW's flight paths, which might cause delays merely due to the turbulence while flying through the storm clouds.

Looks good to me!

Those studies do suggest the drying out of the atmosphere is part of the reason, but I also suspect it has to do with the wind currents becoming progressively faster. Systems get shoved off to the east so fast when they blow off the Rockies that it limits the amount of time for atmospheric recovery to support significant severe weather outbreaks, with the window for moisture return being limited the further west you get and updrafts getting sheared apart. That's probably the same reason it's so difficult to get a storm system like the 1978 Blizzatd today.

Jokes aside with the bolded, there has definitely been a steady statistical decrease in the frequency of tornadoes over the past several decades in the current area known of "Tornado Alley," as well as a shift SE in the statistical center of activity. https://earthsky.org/earth/tornado-alley-dixie-climate-change/#:~:text=We found a notable decrease,and Kentucky into southern Indiana. https://theweatherstationexperts.com/is-tornado-alley-shifting-east/

An article yesterday from CNN also acknowledged what has been a shift in the location where tornadoes seem to be occuring more frequently as a late (Dixie Alley), even calling into question whether "Tornado Alley" still lives up to its name... An article on CNN also acknowledged what has been a shift in the location where tornadoes seem to be occuring more frequently as a late (Dixie Alley), even calling to question whether "Tornado Alley" still lives up to its name... https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2022/03/31/weather/march-tornado-record-climate/index.html

An intra-hour high of 70°F yesterday saved DFW from breaking its current 70°F+ streak the past 7 days. Should continue at least through Sunday, maybe longer.Also, March ended up right around normal, with a departure of +0.3°F.

I've been to Springdale once and met a few people there through my work. It was a cute, prosperous, bustling little town. It definitely sucks to see this. Hopefully they'll have a smooth and speedy recovery.

It's a whopping 94*F at DFW now. Definitely exceeded my expectations. Also 2 degrees shy of the record high, BTW.

For DFW, it seems December alone was so extremely warm that it helped the entire 2021-2022 winter crack the top 10 warmest list (#10 specifically), even with January only around average and February well below average.

After a high of 86*F today, DFW could see its first 90*F+ day of the year tomorrow. The trees are exploding with leaves & buds too.

A preliminary look at next Tuesday suggests it could be another good setup for severe weather, this time not only in Texas but also further north into OK.

What's standing out with this particular event is how these tornadoes are seemingly taken aim at all of these different population centers. Even DFW had 2 weaker tornadoes confirmed.

Meanwhile, in textbook "Spring in Texas" fashion, there's currently a blizzard ongoing in the Panhandle.

Just to clarify, it was just a few pea to dime sized hail stones mixed in with the rain. Lasted no more than a minute.

Getting hail now

Sick looking shelf cloud, but no sign of a funnel so far.

Addison just activated its sirens.