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SnoSki14

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Everything posted by SnoSki14

  1. SnoSki14
    Very benign honestly. Most winters we'd see at least one single digit reading. And it has moderated considerably from what was shown a few days ago. I think it'll continue to moderate. Probably mid to upper 30s Fri/Sat highs and upper teens to low 20s for lows.
  2. SnoSki14
    I agree with the 3 months of March comparison. The rainy weather has really ramped up after a rather benign January, which just ups the dreariness of it all. Don't see the active pattern ending anytime soon.
  3. SnoSki14
    So far there's no signs of a major pattern change for March so you could be right. However models won't pick up on the seasonal changes until late Feb. If nothing changes by Feb 20 then this pattern will stick into March. There's a possibility that April turns out to be the cold month but by then it really doesn't matter.
  4. SnoSki14
    The pattern seems very locked in. There's honestly zero changes on the horizon going into late Feb and no I'm not buying whatever crap the 11-15 day GEFS is showing. I think a big March turnaround is looking more and more unlikely right now.
  5. SnoSki14
    Maybe the complete opposite will occur within a few years and we'll set new snowfall records. Still it's amazing how despite having the worst teleconnections possible that we still have more snowfall than a handful of other years.
  6. SnoSki14
    Yet another extreme record set over past few years.
  7. SnoSki14
    This year's bug/mosquito problem could be horrendous. Lack of cold + wet weather is a recipe for disaster in the spring and summer. Also early vegetation growth in the south could be threatened with late season cold shots.
  8. SnoSki14
    Not surprised.
  9. SnoSki14
    Will probably modify into 30s and low 20s at night.
  10. SnoSki14
    Nah I'll pass. It would be another kick in the nuts after a horrendous winter. I hope it's warm and sunny.
  11. SnoSki14
    At least it's helping the Arctic this season. Maybe that'll help us out in the future. This year however looks toast and I'm 100% ready for warm spring-like weather.
  12. SnoSki14
    Wow just got a severe thunderstorm warning alert.
  13. SnoSki14
    It's been atrocious, I think it may even be worse than 01/02 & 11/12 for me. I had like 4" total so far with every month Dec-Feb above normal, a torch Jan & Feb looking likely. Zero full days of snow cover. If March doesn't save the day then I'll be ranking this winter as the worst I've ever experienced. I'm not as angry about it as I'd normally be. Eventually you just kinda accept it and move on. I just pray spring doesn't turn to sh*t.
  14. SnoSki14
    These things change daily. We won't know the reality for at least 2 weeks or after Feb 20. Truth is the pattern will remain locked in until seasonal changes come into play.
  15. SnoSki14
    Very strong wording on the wind potential from Mt. Holly. They mention sting-jet and gusts near hurricane force for coastal sections. Not good with wet soils and unfrozen ground. GFS continued to amp things up in latest run. Looks like sub 970 just north of the area.
  16. SnoSki14
    Agree, shocked how much forecasts are underplaying this. People will be waking up to quite a surprise.
  17. SnoSki14
    I think so, it's gonna be near 60 tomorrow morning. Very strong CAA as low passes through and good mixing with the sun trying to break out. I think the NWS is downplaying this with only 50mph max gusts
  18. SnoSki14
    I'll take my chances with a slider in this time frame. Granted the pattern isn't favorable for any type of snow event with the AO set to hit new records and such.
  19. SnoSki14
    Wow at the Nam, very sting-jet like. That's widespread 50-60+mph gusts if it's correct. Temps near 60F ahead of the front with steep lapse rates for nice transfer potential.
  20. SnoSki14
    CMC follows the deepening low trend, 969mb just north of the city. Has period of very strong gusts (60mph+) especially on LI and coastal sections as low passes through.
  21. SnoSki14
    The PNA loses relevance after Feb 20. In fact snowstorms in the east are more common under -PNA from late Feb through March. I'm more interested to see if the AO/NAO flips by then as they're still relevant until late March.
  22. SnoSki14
    Latest GFS looks even lower at 970 near same spot.
  23. SnoSki14
    Looks fairly active for next few weeks, wouldn't be surprised if we flip to above normal before month ends.
  24. SnoSki14
    Agree probably closer to 60-65mph for parts of LI.
  25. SnoSki14
    All of the LR ensemble runs have been garbage. Im actually more optimistic that they're showing garbage in the long run. March isn't gonna torch though as much as some wish it did. This is a repeating pattern with cold Nov/March and warm to record breaking Jan/Feb.
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