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purduewx80

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Everything posted by purduewx80

  1. purduewx80
    Euro came a good bit NW w/ the back edge of precip late Monday (as compared to 12Z). Hi res models are showing the EL close to 2km which is more than enough for the heavy rates you’ve been hinting at, and having the synoptic support tomorrow night and again Monday nights helps guarantee sufficient moisture. My hunch is that LOT is a bit gun shy given the tendency for hi res to overdo LES earlier in the season, but there are a lot more reasons to believe it this round than not, IMO.
  2. purduewx80
    Reference LES - LOT AFD update (click link for additional discussion on tomorrow night and Monday):
  3. purduewx80
    Yes absolutely. We’ve had several events in the Midwest the past couple weeks with 10:1 ratios w temps in the single digits and teens. It depends on temps in the clouds and where the best upward motion is.
  4. purduewx80
    Can really see the lake enhancement nicely on the cam downtown now (time sensitive). Big dendrites. There's a sneaky layer of onshore flow 2000-3500' feet up helping out.
  5. purduewx80
    0.4” liquid equivalent at GYY would be good for 8-12”+.
  6. purduewx80
    some all-star blizzards in the CIPS analogs, but are we just gonna keep chasing these into april?
  7. purduewx80
    Yeah for sure, that’s beautiful. Cloud depth covers the entire DGZ. A little shear at the top of the layer but most of it is unidirectional. Also seeding it a bit from aloft.
  8. purduewx80
    UKMET jumping ship w/ the rest of them but saves a few via LE in WI/IL:
  9. purduewx80
    Saturation occurring ahead of schedule south of DSM thanks to a narrow band of fgen forcing. Nice to see pivotalweather add this to their repertoire.
  10. purduewx80
    Halfway decent jet coupling showing up. Better consensus on RRQ action from the northern streak on most other guidance.
  11. purduewx80
    No reports from the area that probably received the most in IL, but the Racine area did ok due to the combo of lake effect and broader light snow. Ultimately, it looks like the dry air plaguing us later today was also responsible for the lower totals in NE IL.
  12. purduewx80
    Likely doing well there due to ORD being to your NE. Constant aircraft effect snow. Don’t think we are seeding this down here yet. Aircraft soundings out of MDW show a deep layer of very dry air above the LES. But, you can see how things perked up on MKX radar once that got some help from above. Best guess on that for IL counties is late eve.
  13. purduewx80
    1.3” as of noon. Flurries now.
  14. purduewx80
    Getting more blue in the PacNW (PNA) and red E/NE of the Great Lakes (confluence) is what could bring this north. Baby steps.
  15. purduewx80
    +SN here too.
  16. purduewx80
    It's great to hear this. Whether or not the vaccine can help prevent asymptomatic spread I feel like has been one of the deterrents of people getting vaccinated.
  17. purduewx80
    00Z Euro area average sounding for Chicago below. The DGZ is ~14,000' deep with steep lapse rates above that and unidirectional flow off the lake. Would probably be double digit totals w/ the QPF it has forecast. Obviously still a lot can go wrong w/ the TPV not moving out in time. There has been a trend for a deeper upper low moving across the SW and TX - if that can cut off a bit more and slow down it would likely result in a farther N/W storm track at the surface.
  18. purduewx80
    Ratios should be ~30:1. Coating on all surfaces here looks a lot like the 50:1 we saw the other day. Bit more wind today so don’t think we’ll quite achieve that.
  19. purduewx80
    Not getting any help from that until the snow in Iowa moves in. Basically if you add snow from aloft to the convective lake plume, you get more widespread/heavier snow (temps in the lake plume important). Could argue the approaching shortwave and jet maxes are boosting the lift, but there’s also an increase in low level flow and resultant convergence w boundary layer flow turning from the N/NE. DGZ is pretty much on the ground so it’s a perfect setup to overperform.
  20. purduewx80
    Will add Kenosha/Racine Co., WI, to this. Somewhere in there where synoptic snow overlaps/seeds LES may be near warning criteria imo. Even ORD could do well later on due to enhanced convergence along the shore north of Evanston.
  21. purduewx80
    Flurries appear to be falling out of thin air here. Bodes well for later when SCT shallow cumulus can do that.
  22. purduewx80
    Hi res looks much better tomorrow. Prolly a max near Evanston (4-6”?) but there should be LES in most of Lake/Cook, IL. The aforementioned jet streak may even give it a relative boost towards evening.
  23. purduewx80
    EPS is hotter and hotter. Trends are worth continuing to watch because there are now a couple of members that shift the confluence out so quickly that it bombs out to near 980 passing west of ORD. Mean low goes from the Ohio Valley to Lake Huron.
  24. purduewx80
    Almost wondering about advisory type snows right along the shore and maybe a mile or two inland. There’s a weak wave passing which may help seed it too.
  25. purduewx80
    eh, most other guidance is weaker and farther south. end result is probably somewhere in the middle.
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