Blue Ridge

MRX afternoon disco:

Great catch. This may well be the root cause of much of the IP/ZR depicted as well.

Classic Valley warm nose. 850 low will make or break everything SW of 81/40.

Forgive the brief IMBYism, but models are once again honing in on Greene Co. as the battleground, with a gradient of >6" to upwards of 1' from west to east. Classic. For much of East TN, this may well mirror Dec 18-19, 2009.

Roughly 0.75" of cement greeted me this AM. Family in Erwin has 2" with icy roads. I-26 is apparently a mess.

Hey @John1122, your map isn't showing up on my end. Looks like it's behind a log-in wall.

Hot off the press: MRX's abbreviated afternoon disco. For Friday and Saturday, strengthening southwest flow from southern Plains trough will increase the isentropic lift over the area. Depending on how fast the precipitation moves into the region, the precipitation may begin as a mixture of snow and sleet, and then change to all of rain except possibly for far eastern Tennessee Mountains. For Saturday night and Sunday, the jet dynamic forcing for the upper trough will produce strong omega along and just above the fronto- genetic slope (around 500mb). Deep synoptic forcing will help cool the vertical column with precipitation likely changing back to snow over southwest Virginia, northeast Tennessee (especially mountains), and Smoky Mountains. Main rain (or possibly rain/snow mix) elsewhere. For Sunday night and Monday, upper dynamics strengthens the surface/850mb pulling the warm conveyor belt into the northern half of the area with a deformation zone. This will keep chances of mainly snowfall going with additional snowfall anticipated. Will include this potential snowstorm within the HWO. System pulls out for Tuesday and Wednesday with drier conditions.

GSP has followed suit with a WWA for border counties >3500 ft. MRX has not yet issued the afternoon disco/forecast package, so we should soon know one way or another. EDIT: There she is. .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. TN...Winter Weather Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 1 PM EST Wednesday for Blount Smoky Mountains-Cocke Smoky Mountains- Johnson-Sevier Smoky Mountains-Southeast Carter-Southeast Greene-Unicoi. VA...Winter Weather Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 1 PM EST Wednesday for Russell-Wise.

This system will be the first gulf low/slider for me since relocating to Greeneville. Greene Co. is often a battleground for the Valley warm nose; the December 2009 winter storm serves as a prime example. Greeneville proper received 4", while the westernmost portions of Greene Co. recorded nothing more than token flakes mixed with steady rain. The easternmost Greene Co. mountains recorded upwards of one foot. I'm positioned dead center by longitude and slightly south by latitude. Interesting times ahead!

My god. It's beautiful.

I'll take my chances with that track any day.

45 at K0A9 (Elizabethton) 43 at KTRI 43 at KGCY (Greeneville) 41 at KLNP 39 at KVJI (Abingdon) 39 at KTYS It will be after dark before token flakes are possible.

Looks like they did switch briefly! Time Temp. Dew Relative Wind Wind Wind Visibility WX Clouds Altimeter Station Precip Quality Point Humidity Chill Direction Speed Setting Pressure 1 hour Control (EST) (f) (f) (%) (f) (mph) (miles) (inches) (inches) (inches) 15 Nov 8:35 am 34 34 100 CALM 5.00 -RA BKN003 OVC009 30.02 27.234 0.02 OK 15 Nov 8:15 am 34 34 100 CALM 3.00 -RA OVC009 30.01 27.225 0.01 OK 15 Nov 7:55 am 34 34 100 CALM 3.00 RA OVC005 30.02 27.234 0.06 OK 15 Nov 7:35 am 34 34 100 CALM 4.00 RA OVC005 30.03 27.243 0.05 OK 15 Nov 7:15 am 34 34 100 CALM 3.00 UP BKN005 OVC016 30.03 27.243 0.03 OK 15 Nov 6:55 am 34 34 100 ESE 3 2.50 -RA OVC005 30.02 27.234 0.08 OK 15 Nov 6:35 am 34 34 100 CALM 3.00 -SN SCT005 BKN060 OVC070 30.02 27.234 0.04 OK 15 Nov 6:15 am 34 34 100 E 7 5.00 RA SCT018 OVC070 30.03 27.243 0.02 OK 15 Nov 5:55 am 34 34 100 SSE 6 5.00 UP SCT060 OVC070 30.05 27.262 0.05 OK 15 Nov 5:35 am 34 34 100 25 SSE 12G23 5.00 UP BKN050 OVC070 30.07 27.280 0.03 OK

Downsloping winds = dry but useless days. Sunday night was absolutely wild. We were at a B&B in rural Sevier County and I awoke to the distinctive sound of our well-built structure being tested by extremely strong gusts. At breakfast the following morning, another guest claimed to have measured a gust of 71 mph with his handheld anemometer. Take that for what it's worth.

I've been under a training snow shower for roughly an hour that has dumped an inch of snow. Absolutely ripping at the moment with gusts to 25 mph. (FYI: I'm situated higher than Greeneville proper at roughly 1900 ft.)

My goal is to ignore the possibility for snow this weekend until the models (hopefully) lose it and we wind up with cold rain. Why, you ask? Because my fiancee would **** a brick at the thought of snow falling two Saturdays prior to wedding day.

Constant heavy rain since 7:30 in Greeneville. Radar looks splotchy but it just has not let up. Edit: distant thunder now too.

Last scan on RadarScope shows 1:34 am. Damn.

I'm well aware the barrage of negative reaction to @Mountain_Patch's post will be deleted in short order, but IMO, it's deserved and serves to weed out the crazy.

lol this dude is woke. even throwing in a shoutout to HAM operators. guess there's no damage, guys; HAM operators are still broadcasting.

With the beautiful weather this week, I was able to bike roughly 45 miles. It felt great to be out riding again. Thursday was so warm I was able to wear a tank top without the breeze created by a 30-35 mph downhill stretch numbing me.

It was felt in East Tennessee as well. It was enough to shake the walls much like a strong wind gust.

I typically lurk the severe weather threads outside of the SE, but I wanted to pop by to say I'm glad JoMo is safe and well. Amazing stories are being told here. I'm certainly bookmarking this thread for future reference.