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Blue Ridge

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  1. Blue Ridge
    So much for my bold prediction above...lol.
  2. Blue Ridge
    For those playing along at home, 1 m/s = 2.237 mph. Alternatively, use this handy calculator. Ignoring the high outliers, it looks like Camp Creek is consistently flirting with 40 m/s - nearly 90 mph. (FYI - if that 54 m/s observation is verified, that's ~121 mph.) @Math/Met Thoughts?
  3. Blue Ridge
    Bantering in a banter thread. Huh. Imagine that. Re: UT-UK, I think this game said more about UK than UT. Kentucky is a buzzsaw at the moment and firing on all cylinders. Know who else is firing on all cylinders? LSU. I think UT beats UK in TBA but loses to LSU in the Pete. Barring disaster on the road vs. Florida or Bama, that would all but ensure an LSU regular season championship. Between games at UT, at Ole Miss, and at home vs Auburn, UK may well have two more losses on its schedule. As well as Cal has them playing, tradition dictates an impending late season blunder against a middle-of-the-pack SEC West opponent. ESPN can all but guarantee an Ole Miss win on 3/5 by throwing the game on ESPN or ESPN2 with Karl Ravech and Jimmy Dykes. Ole Miss, with 4 losses but with home games against Kentucky and Tennessee remaining, could very well still nab the 2 seed.
  4. Blue Ridge
    The latest from MRX:
  5. Blue Ridge
    Yikes. Nightmare scenario. I checked flash flood guidance and...it's pretty low.
  6. Blue Ridge
    @Carvers Gap 6z GEFS. Bullseye of 8.5" over Fall Creek Falls State Park. Higher totals across SW North Carolina. Does not bode well for spring tourism in the area. DuPont, in particular, may be looking at a significant stretch of time with popular trails closed.
  7. Blue Ridge
    Almost looks like a mesovort just south of Maryville. In other news, 52 dbz over Johnson City...
  8. Blue Ridge
    Stepped out for lunch after the initial onset of rain this afternoon and the amount of running and ponding water was absolutely staggering. I fear we may soon see levels on the Nolichucky not eclipsed since 2004. Several area school systems dismissed early in preparation of potential flooding woes, and it appears they were right to do so. Local children have seen nearly as many flood days as they have snow days this winter!
  9. Blue Ridge
    Tired: ski season Wired: jet ski season I particularly love the 6z FV3 at 102, driving a 998 low directly over KTRI and directly into the Blue Ridge.
  10. Blue Ridge
    The Pacific is absolutely wild right now. Watch the storm dive due almost due south: https://www.ssec.wisc.edu/data/geo/#/animation?satellite=goes-west&end_datetime=latest&n_images=all&coverage=conus&channel=04&image_quality=gif&anim_method=javascript (time-sensitive)
  11. Blue Ridge
    KCHA hit 81 as of 14:25. Congrats to Chatty!
  12. Blue Ridge
    Not a bad idea. The Braves should be an exciting team this year. I'll be in Chitown on business multiple occasions this year and plan on catching a game or two at Wrigley.
  13. Blue Ridge
    @nrgjeff My Cubs won't play at Wrigley until 4/8, as they begin the season with a road trip through Arlington, Atlanta, and Wrigley North. I'm beginning to wonder if Harper or Machado will sign by the time Spring Training is here.
  14. Blue Ridge
    Either this is in an odd spot for radar, or this cell briefly produced. See subsequent post for reflectivity scan.
  15. Blue Ridge
    ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 830 PM CST FOR SOUTHWESTERN DAVIDSON...NORTHWESTERN WILLIAMSON AND SOUTH CENTRAL CHEATHAM COUNTIES... At 812 PM CST, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado was located over Pegram, or 14 miles south of Ashland City, moving east at 40 mph. HAZARD...Tornado. SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation. IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is likely. This tornadic thunderstorm will remain over mainly rural areas of southwestern Davidson, northwestern Williamson and south central Cheatham Counties. This includes Interstate 40 between mile markers 182 and 197.
  16. Blue Ridge
    Getting absolutely gobsmacked in G-vegas. Ditches full. Imagine a FFW will be issued before long. We knew this training band would set up somewhere, but most guidance had it closer to the KY/TN border. Edit: Just as I posted, not one, not two, but three separate house-rattling claps of thunder. Whew boy.
  17. Blue Ridge
    I'm beginning to suspect you may be @paulythegun on Twitter... (if you don't follow, give him/her a follow.)
  18. Blue Ridge
    Hell yeah brother, cheers from the winter asylum
  19. Blue Ridge
    John, it seems like just 10 years ago we were seeing monster NW flow events at least once a winter that would even get the valleys in on the fun as shortwaves rotated around the base of a trough. Seems like I recall a blizzard warning in portions of WNC during one such event. Am I crazy to think those events have suddenly diminished as well?
  20. Blue Ridge
    The GFS has continually flirted with severe since Jax mentioned it above - less so than the 12z Euro, mercy. Fitting, as we are almost to the 11 year anniversary of the Super Tuesday outbreak.
  21. Blue Ridge
    Decent snow squall moving through now.
  22. Blue Ridge
    1.5 is my total in Greeneville proper. No road issues to speak of, though freezing overnight will undoubtedly change that.
  23. Blue Ridge
    Thanks for your input as always, Jeff. I certainly am not aiming to travel down the political wormhole that seems to open any time the phrase “climate change” is spoken, but I do believe this to be a major reason why winters/ENSO/etc. seem to no longer behave in a manner to which we are accustomed.
  24. Blue Ridge
    Looks like the GFS has backed off a bit for now. Way too early to tell obviously. <banter>I'm all too happy to throw in the towel on winter early if that would net an active spring, but I won't hold my breath.</banter>
  25. Blue Ridge
    Ah yes, 41 and sunny is positively riveting content for a banter thread. Discussing short-range, hi-res forecast model trends (and comparing/contrasting to mid- and long-range trends) is part of the process. That is "real weather," and our crew discusses it at as high a level as you'll find.
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