Blue Ridge

Full disclosure: don't consider myself a Vols fan, though I do watch with interest. Certainly not an apologist. SEC Network's Jordan Rodgers posted on Twitter a great breakdown that more or less proves JG called his own shot on the botched QB sneak. Likely would have been a TD had the play been run as called. He also missed a wide open Jauan Jennings earlier in the game for a sure TD. Had Maurer not been injured, I think the game plays out differently. Bama could say the same about Tua, however. Zebras also got in the way. Absolutely atrocious officiating all night. I think Pruitt/Chaney will do well if given a bit more time. To hear him talk, Pruitt sounds like a dolt, but playcalling and effort have improved greatly throughout the season. Sit Maurer for the rest of the season. Fire JG into the sun. Start Shrout and throw in the wildcat with Jennings or Jordan. The season is already lost, but I see good things coming. If Maurer looks good, QB debate gets interesting next season between him and the Maryland transfer Kasim Hill.

and within 240? My god. Sound the alarms.

Had a nice shower earlier, even a clap of thunder. Nice bonus on a 30% POP day. Two wildfires made the news this weekend - one in Greene Co. caused by an imbecile burning trash, the other of unknown origin in Carter Co. I fear this is just the beginning should a wetter pattern not soon take hold.

Well, that escalated quickly...

Looks like the nasty cell that flared up between Newport and Parrottsville verified its SVR. MRX received a report of 1.5" hail in Greene County.

It's lol-worthy at this point.

That's...not good.

Yeah, no. Doesn’t work like that, buddy. I experienced the same issue as @Windspeed. A similar issue was previously noted on AmWx some time ago. Sometimes it’s the result of malicious script injected w/o the webmaster’s knowledge; other times, an ad can be the culprit. Perhaps don’t be quite so abrasive in the future.

Darwinism at work... In other news, we took a long drive around rural Washington and Greene Counties. Limestone Creek is doing a number on north and west sections of Washington Co. I’ll post pics in a bit.

Noticed the same thing earlier wrt FFWs. In fact, Knox Co does not show a FFW despite the PDS Warning in place.

If anything, this may have just a bit of wiggle room to move slightly north and still train directly over Knoxville proper. TYS is going to be oh so close.

The train is arriving, and I’ll let the storm tracks tell the story. Stay safe, Knoxville friends.

It's going to be a photo finish. Storm tracks on KOHX are also showing slightly more ENE than NE. Watch the training cells move just south of McMinnville. From a hobbyist standpoint, this is fascinating to watch. Meanwhile, the stream in my front yard is slowly beginning to grow into a pond.

Easy, dude. @janetjanet998 has been instrumental in flood coverage since this risk first presented itself. Also, we don't "stick to areas" here. The warning you referred to is an areal flood warning. Not the same as a Flash Flood Warning, and certainly not given the same priority. FFWs trigger EAS.

Two notes, FWIW. 1) There appears to be westerly forcing pushing some of the training cells in middle TN more eastward. This is visible on KHTX. Watch the push around the 50nmi band. Pure conjecture without the aid of a sounding: flow aloft may be more from the west than south, pushing the higher-topped convection east while flow in the lower levels pushes more north. Just a thought. https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/index.php?type=HTX-N0Q-0-6 2) Not sure I see much opportunity for clearing across the moderate risk area. That said, that's some nice convection moving into the Arklatex... https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?parms=regional-southeast-truecolor-24-1-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

Can't say I've seen an area go from no FFW to a PDS Flash Flood Emergency in one fell swoop.

...FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY FOR KNOXVILLE TENNESSEE AND GREATER KNOX COUNTY... The National Weather Service in Morristown has issued a * Flash Flood Warning for... Knox County in east Tennessee... * Until 130 PM EST. * At 1036 AM EST, emergency management reported heavy rain across the warned area. Up to 3 inches of rain have already fallen over the last 3 to 4 hours with an additional 1 to 2 inches possible over the next 2 hours. Flash flooding is already occurring. This is a FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY for Knoxville. This is a PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. SEEK HIGHER GROUND NOW!

After missing out on all but drizzle yesterday, I woke up to 1.63" and a rushing stream in my front yard. I don't so much as have a ditch line.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN 346 PM EST WED FEB 20 2019 ..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON... ..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.... ..REMARKS.. 0700 AM NON-TSTM WND GST COVE MOUNTAIN 35.71N 83.59W 02/20/2019 M87 MPH SEVIER TN MESONET 0630 AM NON-TSTM WND GST CAMP CREEK 36.09N 82.77W 02/20/2019 M81 MPH GREENE TN MESONET CORRECTS PREVIOUS NON-TSTM WND GST REPORT FROM CAMP CREEK. MEASURED GUST AT THE NOAA/ATDD TOWER. EARLIER REPORTED GUST WAS ERRONEOUS. AFTER QUALITY CONTROL OF THE RAW DATA 81 MPH WAS CONFIRMED TO BE THE CORRECT WIND SPEED. 0659 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 4 SE CEDAR CREEK 35.98N 82.84W 02/20/2019 M51 MPH GREENE TN MESONET MESONET STATION PGVT1, NOLICHUCKY (4 SE CEDAR CREEK). 0327 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 1 SE SIGNAL MOUNTAIN 35.12N 85.33W 02/20/2019 M49 MPH HAMILTON TN MESONET MESONET STATION C9567, SIGNAL MOUNTAIN. 1000 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 4 WSW ROAN MOUNTAIN 36.17N 82.15W 02/20/2019 M47 MPH CARTER TN MESONET MESONET STATION D5724, 4 WSW ROAN MOUNTAIN. 0106 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 5 SE POWELLS CROSSROADS 35.13N 85.43W 02/20/2019 M43 MPH MARION TN MESONET MESONET STATION PCFT1, PRENTICE COOPER SF. 0905 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 1 WNW UNICOI 36.20N 82.37W 02/20/2019 M43 MPH UNICOI TN MESONET MESONET STATION UNIT1, WATAUGA (1 WNW UNICOI).

Just hit ~110 again. I believe it may be legit. If so, that's incredible.

For those playing along at home, 1 m/s = 2.237 mph. Alternatively, use this handy calculator. Ignoring the high outliers, it looks like Camp Creek is consistently flirting with 40 m/s - nearly 90 mph. (FYI - if that 54 m/s observation is verified, that's ~121 mph.) @Math/Met Thoughts?

The latest from MRX:

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 830 PM CST FOR SOUTHWESTERN DAVIDSON...NORTHWESTERN WILLIAMSON AND SOUTH CENTRAL CHEATHAM COUNTIES... At 812 PM CST, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado was located over Pegram, or 14 miles south of Ashland City, moving east at 40 mph. HAZARD...Tornado. SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation. IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is likely. This tornadic thunderstorm will remain over mainly rural areas of southwestern Davidson, northwestern Williamson and south central Cheatham Counties. This includes Interstate 40 between mile markers 182 and 197.

The GFS has continually flirted with severe since Jax mentioned it above - less so than the 12z Euro, mercy. Fitting, as we are almost to the 11 year anniversary of the Super Tuesday outbreak.

Looks like the GFS has backed off a bit for now. Way too early to tell obviously. <banter>I'm all too happy to throw in the towel on winter early if that would net an active spring, but I won't hold my breath.</banter>