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Blue Ridge

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  1. Blue Ridge
    Based on several mPing reports, returns currently entering southern Wake began as sleet in N Harnett and S Johnston.
  2. Blue Ridge
  3. Blue Ridge
    IMBY post: HRRR has been consistent in showing the sharp gradient running through my neck of S Wake. Will be interesting to watch unfold if nothing else.
  4. Blue Ridge
    General rule of thumb: mixing/outright ZR is always on the table in Wake, especially south and East. Depending on track, US 1 and/or US 64 are good landmarks for this. edit: that said, even a full ZR storm won’t equate 1:1 to total QPF. Start with total QPF, cut in half, and that’s a reasonable “worst outcome” benchmark.
  5. Blue Ridge
    SRQ is still transmitting altimeter data, but nothing else. https://mesowest.utah.edu/cgi-bin/droman/meso_base_dyn.cgi?stn=KSRQ&unit=0&timetype=LOCAL
  6. Blue Ridge
    >110 MPH over Anna Maria and moving into Bradenton says you’re wrong
  7. Blue Ridge
    This one?
  8. Blue Ridge
    Considering he just said “oh I forgot about the mesovorts dude,” I’m going with “not much.”
  9. Blue Ridge
    The current jog west is really concerning for TLH (and even more concerning for the NHC truthers). I can’t tell if the center is actually doing a NNW jog, but the western eye wall most certainly has veered in that direction.
  10. Blue Ridge
    The Nate Silver approach to polling data (read the top lines; toss it in the averages) is practical for so many data sets.
  11. Blue Ridge
    Other than one or two degens betting the house on TPA >CAT 4 +10000 - but those who have been around a minute know to tune them out.
  12. Blue Ridge
    Interesting clip: https://x.com/wcyb_davidboyd/status/1691443672775061504?s=46&t=-jk574F48wGboFVZ_ROoOQ IIRC, this would line up close to the CC drop.
  13. Blue Ridge
    Sandhills and portions of the Triad broke the bust. Let’s see if the blob entering Chatham can hold it together and give greater Raleigh a show. .
  14. Blue Ridge
    Doozy of a training situation in Southern Wake this morning. Wild light show along with the heaviest rain since Ian.
  15. Blue Ridge
    This is what happened during the 2015 cold snap. The coldest day IMBY (Erwin at the time) was 8° with ice crystals falling nearly all day. Unlike anything I’d seen before or have seen since.
  16. Blue Ridge
    Tapatalk double post, disregard
  17. Blue Ridge
    0/10 composition and editing, but after watching at 8x speed I have no doubt this was it. I wish I’d saved radar data - this meso initially developed ahead (to the NE) of the line and just crawled along US 1 until merging with the line. This is from roughly when the merger was occurring; the warning came ~20 mins later.
  18. Blue Ridge
    I saw what appeared to be a rotating wall cloud from Holly Springs as that cell moved to my north (at least 20 minutes prior to the warning). Unfortunately I was juggling my kid and cloud watching, so the best I have is crappy video from my iPhone propped in the window.
  19. Blue Ridge
    RTP tornado was an EF-1
  20. Blue Ridge
    Per Durham EMS on Twitter, it’s a Pfizer facility on Shiloh Glenn Dr at the 40/540 cloverleaf. A few pictures of damage here.
  21. Blue Ridge
    Following I-540 for a couple of scans. Holy hell. That’s usually a parking lot by 4:45 or so.
  22. Blue Ridge
    It did the thing
  23. Blue Ridge
    This cell is giving it a go. Don’t think it will quite get there. Bears watching though.
  24. Blue Ridge
    If there’s a cell (or two) that will do the thing in the Triangle, it will likely be from this cluster west of Sanford.
  25. Blue Ridge
    New warning for Warren Co just north of Norlina
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