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Blue Ridge

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  1. Blue Ridge
    Cut in half and that’s a solid 4-6” event across NE TN. That fits well with my current thinking.
  2. Blue Ridge
    I remember that, but now they’re all meshing together in my head. I’m going to have to spend some time this weekend bookmarking and organizing old storm/obs threads for easier reference. Lol.
  3. Blue Ridge
    Indeed we have! This reminds me of a system from a few winter seasons ago, maybe 2014 or 2015? I tried to dig but Tapatalk is garbage for viewing post history. Anyway, East TN was well positioned for a solid 4-8” snow, until 48-72 hrs when the suppression trend reared its ugly head. Around this time, they slowly crept back to the NW w/ the precip shield, until short term modeling took over and brought it home. I want to say it was a solid 3-6” snow for much of the eastern Valley and mountains. Moral of the story: there is hope, friends!
  4. Blue Ridge
    I had the same thought as you and @tnweathernut re: the ever-present NW jog after awaking to dismal overnight model runs. Now, undoubtedly I risk setting myself up for immense disappointment, but I would rather be on the northern fringe within 48 hrs than in the bullseye. At the moment, I feel good about MRX's forecast and think it may well play out in similar manner.
  5. Blue Ridge
    CMC totals: The money shot: No ZR/IP to speak of.
  6. Blue Ridge
    Looks like a few flurries are moving through John’s neck of the woods as well. [mention=499]john1122[/mention]
  7. Blue Ridge
    Consult John’s ZR map above. Looks like a significant amount of that is ZR. Likewise, TRI totals are cut significantly by IP/ZR.
  8. Blue Ridge
    Hate to say it, but we just don’t have the answers right now. It’s going to be super close. Next 24 hrs of model runs are key, and then it’s basically nowcast time. Storms such as this in the Valley are so fluid.
  9. Blue Ridge
    RIP 321 corridor. Seems like if I fart in the wrong direction, I lose power in my neighborhood. Not sure I want .30” of freezing rain and a few inches of cement.
  10. Blue Ridge
    Friendship ended w/ GFS.
  11. Blue Ridge
    Just glanced at GSP's disco and updated maps. AVL peeps are on weeniecide watch. Total accumulation was cut by ~60% between the AM and PM forecast packages across WNC.
  12. Blue Ridge
    Was just about to mention this. There is a sweet spot for this 850 low, and for East TN to cash in it often involves WNC taking it on the chin WRT the warm nose.
  13. Blue Ridge
    John, I would like to see the Dec 18-19, 2009 storm totals overlaid on that map. I think that tells quite the story.
  14. Blue Ridge
    Accompanying MRX PM disco: .SHORT TERM...(Tonight and Friday)... The short-term forecast is rather benign compared to the long- term forecast. Temperatures have struggled today as high clouds moved in ahead of the next approaching upper level system. This system is currently located to the northwest across the Great Lakes but will race into the Northeast U.S. by late tonight. A cold front associated with this upper trough will slide into the area tonight. Moisture along this boundary will be limited with only a slight chance for a few snow showers late tonight into early Friday morning across portions of southwest Virginia and portions of the northern Cumberland Plateau. No snow accumulations are forecast tonight. Lows overnight will range from the upper 20s to mid 30s. On Friday cyclogenesis will take place along the natural baroclinic zone of the northwestern Gulf Coast as an upper level trough moves across the Baja California. Concurrently, an E-W surface boundary will stretch across the northern Gulf Coast. Isentropic ascent to the north of the boundary will keep conditions cloudy throughout the day but do not expect precipitation will move in until after 00z Saturday. Another cool day is forecast with highs in the low to mid 40s for most locations. .LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)... Isentropic ascent will continue Friday night into Saturday with the atmospheric gradually moistening and light precipitation in the form of light rain overspreading the southern sections of the Forecast area. Clouds will thicken across the northeast section with light northeast winds bringing in cold air from high pressure centered over the the Ohio Valley and eastern states. An upper low moves east along the Gulf Coast with a surface low developing and moving to the southeast coast and then northeastward as cold airmass from strong high pressure over the east keeps cold air in place. The precipitation will increase Saturday and Saturday night from southwest to northeast. The precipitation will be mostly rain Saturday and Saturday evening then transition to snow in the higher elevations and across the northeast where more cold air is trapped. Expect moderate to heavy snow across southwest Virginia and northeast Tennessee late Saturday night and Sunday decreasing late Sunday night as the main system pulls out to the northeast. A Winter Storm Watch has been issued for these areas. The lower elevations in the central and southern sections will have enough warming Saturday through Sunday with only light to little snowfall accumulations. Monday and Monday night the precipitation will gradually decrease with only light accumulations Monday afternoon and night. High pressure settles in Tuesday and Wednesday with another system to move in Thursday with warm enough temperatures for mostly rainfall.
  15. Blue Ridge
    Wow, that was not what I expected to happen.
  16. Blue Ridge
    I hear Hugh Freeze is still seeking employment. [emoji57]
  17. Blue Ridge
    I agree that it looks a bit odd. It looks like the energy splits as it’s transferring, with a piece traveling NW of Chattanooga. I don’t think an 850 low on its trajectory (prior to the split) would result in what the FV3 is showing.
  18. Blue Ridge
    Looking at 850, the FV3 has it on top of HSV at hour 72. At 75, it appears to begin transferring. The kicker is that 850 winds are howling across NE TN from the SE or SSE from hrs 75-84. At 87, they have turned ESE. As Math/Met mentioned yesterday, we need a more easterly component to the winds to stave off as much downsloping as possible. Addendum: the FV3 has been quite consistent for NE TN.
  19. Blue Ridge
    Looks like it to me. With systems that fail to make the turn, we often see the deform band "get stuck" on the west side of the Appalachians, even after snow has stopped over the western Carolinas. The band is usually just light snow, but often sticks around for a few hours after the bulk of the precip has passed. The most notable event I can recall was one of the two Christmas 2010 systems.
  20. Blue Ridge
    FV3 is behaving erratically again. Skipped hour 84. Hour 90: light to moderate snow from basically Lebanon eastward. Hour 96: Shield actually expands west. Snowing in Nashville.
  21. Blue Ridge
    I’ll conveniently ignore the CMC cold bias and cash out now, please and thank you.
  22. Blue Ridge
    I’m up for a while longer as well, catching up on process walkthroughs for work. Maybe the FV3 can keep me awake. [emoji854]
  23. Blue Ridge
    That was my guess as well but usually that isn’t quite so apparent in guidance at this stage. Cuts totals over those counties from previous runs while increasing the surrounding areas. Interesting solution.
  24. Blue Ridge
    Curious why such a hole over Unicoi, Carter, Johnson, and Washington Counties exists. Mixing or downslope?
  25. Blue Ridge
    @tnweathernut My friend, I do believe we're due for a good, old-fashioned NAMming.
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