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Blue Ridge

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  1. Blue Ridge
    That’s awesome, man. I’m thrilled for you. Kingsport/Sullivan Co. is a very feast or famine spot. Just noticed the official total at KTRI is now 9.3”, breaking the all-time single-day record for December. Also this: 1145 AM SNOW 2 WNW MOUNT CARMEL 36.57N 82.69W 12/09/2018 M11.0 INCH HAWKINS TN TRAINED SPOTTER
  2. Blue Ridge
    Wondering if Carvers lost power. Friends in Kingsport did hours ago. They’re getting absolutely rocked. Meanwhile, moderate snow continues here. Looks like 2.5”.
  3. Blue Ridge
    Hey Waltrip, same story here just south and east of downtown. Seeing moderate snow now, but temp has inched up to 34.2. Looking like around 1.5” now. .
  4. Blue Ridge
    Very light snow. Radar seems to indicate minor dryslotting. Will be interested to see how this changes once the batch toward Knoxville moves east. Precip angle looks to be changing slightly.
  5. Blue Ridge
    Have about 1” on the ground with all surfaces coated. Had .60” of rain and sleet before transitioning to snow this morning. Radar looks good to the west but I’m seeing only light snow atm.
  6. Blue Ridge
    3° drop in an hour to 37°. Rain and snow mix. Hasn’t yet switched over.
  7. Blue Ridge
    Quick discussion w/r/t temps this afternoon: KGCY (Greeneville) topped out at 41, while KTRI topped out at 43. Both had a light NE breeze much of the afternoon. Meanwhile, K0A9 (Elizabethton) topped out at 45, with an even lighter occasional breeze from the SW - indicative of minor warming from downsloping.
  8. Blue Ridge
    It seems to have floated north and then back south off and on today. FWIW, the HRRR shows it retreat south for a couple of hours before the primary shield builds in.
  9. Blue Ridge
    Nothing to worry about. Low 40s across NE TN were expected.
  10. Blue Ridge
    Looks like the 45° reading is K0A9 (Elizabethton). I’m in Erwin, similar elevation ~20 mi SW. Was 45° here 30 mins ago, but has quickly dropped to 39°. Minor downslope winds have been the culprit. .
  11. Blue Ridge
    I still think it’s pretty damn conservative. I noted the WSWs are in effect through noon Monday, but the wording suggests the event tapers off tomorrow morning. I think the current warning products outside of the mountains are not taking the possible backside thump into consideration. Edit: point and click gives central Greene Co 5-10”. That’s in line with my thoughts.
  12. Blue Ridge
    MRX blinked. Expanded WSW includes Greene, Scott, Campbell, Claiborne, Hancock, Hawkins for 2-7”. .
  13. Blue Ridge
    Good to see a new face! I’m not math/met, but I can help. This is the ratio of snow to liquid. In a 10:1 ratio, 1 inch of liquid equals 10 inches of snow. A 5:1 ratio is 5 inches of snow per inch of liquid. In a vacuum, a higher ratio with a fixed amount of liquid would equal higher snow totals. A 5:1 or 8:1 ratio (what we are likely to face with this system) is going to be the heavy, wet cement snow that sticks to everything and can cause power outages.
  14. Blue Ridge
    43 at KTRI as of 1345. Much of Johnson City was within a range of 39-41 as of 1200. Currently visiting family in Erwin, where it’s 42.
  15. Blue Ridge
    Sorry guys, I invited the RGEM over tonight and next thing I knew he’d raided my liquor cabinet and topped off a handle of Bulleit.
  16. Blue Ridge
    RGEM wants to wipe out the I-81 corridor for a week or two.
  17. Blue Ridge
    Oh of course, but it’s fun keeping track of what madness the clowns produce. Realistically, my baseline for such low ratio storms is take the 10:1 clown and cut it in half, and stick to the low end!
  18. Blue Ridge
    12km NAM gives a foot plus to Unicoi, Carter, Washington, Sullivan, Johnson, and Hancock, as well as the favored mountain slopes of Greene County and into the Smokies. Also drops what appears to be 30” or greater on Brevard, NC. .
  19. Blue Ridge
    Assuming 0z model runs (FV3, NAM, EURO) hold serve or continue their trends, we’ll either see the GFS double down or shift drastically. Either way, I foresee major changes to the AM forecast package.
  20. Blue Ridge
    Yup. Furthermore, the grids and zone products aren't even close to matching up, and neither particularly agree with updated watch/warning products. Jumping aboard the MRX hate train will do absolutely nothing to resolve this forecast. That said, we're witnessing another winter storm with inconsistent messaging and relative disregard of forecast models not named GFS.
  21. Blue Ridge
    Updated zones have yet to load, but it looks like a MRX torch across NE TN per the grids. Sunday is mostly liquid, even in the WSW area.
  22. Blue Ridge
    SHORT TERM...(Tonight and Saturday)... Mostly cloudy to overcast skies will continue to fill in and lower in height as we move into the weekend. Precipitation will begin to move into the Chattanooga area tonight and continue to spread northeastward across the Valley. We will likely see mostly rain in the Valley locations early tomorrow, but temperatures around the 800-900 mb range will be near freezing... This means we could see a wintry mix of rain, sleet, and possibly snow in some Valley locations for a brief period. Any winter precipitation would be very light and accumulation should be minimal (if any occur). Higher up in the mountains temperatures should remain low enough that any precipitation falls in the form of mainly snow. In the higher terrain we could see some accumulations beginning overnight into tomorrow morning. During the daytime hours tomorrow, temperatures will warm up into the upper 30`s in the Valley, but the mountainous areas will stay closer to freezing, leading to more winter weather through most of the day. .LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)... Difficult forecast this afternoon in regard to potential wintry precipitation this weekend and early next week. Different Model solutions and Model inconsistency creates a low confidence forecast. Lets begin... For Saturday night...upper trough moves into the southern Appalachians. The NAM has the strongest jet dynamic forcing over the forecast area with the GFS showing the best dynamics over western North Caroline. These differences are a key why the vertical temperature profile (850mb temperatures) are much cooler for the NAM than the GFS, thus producing more snowfall, especially in the valley. After coordination with WPC and surrounding WFOs, will trend with highest confidence and amounts over the far eastern Tennessee Mountains where we will upgrade to a winter storm warning. For the southwest Virginia, northeast Tennessee and Plateau, will continue with near warning criteria snowfall amounts up to 4-5 inches, but confidence is too low to upgrade and will continue a watch there. For the central valley, a trace to 2 inches, higher ridges, are expected. for Sunday, wintry mix will continue in the morning, but diminishes in the afternoon to mainly drizzle, except snow showers/flurries higher elevations. For Sunday night and Monday, again differences in the models in how much precipitation will be around for the southern valley and southwest North Carolina with upper trough axis. Rain/snow showers or flurries is expected. Will need to watch this potential closer later for later this weekend.
  23. Blue Ridge
    I caution against placing much weight in the EPS or other ensembles at this stage. As@windspeed noted above, we are moving out of the wheelhouse of global models - ensembles in particular - and entering meso-model and nowcast time.
  24. Blue Ridge
    No fun, that’s the obvious choice. Lol.
  25. Blue Ridge
    On a somewhat lighthearted note, who would like to place a friendly (hypothetical) bet on what MRX does during the PM update? I see three possible scenarios: 1) Hold serve with watches, no new areas or upgrades. (IE, passing the buck to night shift.) 2) Overcorrect based upon 0z and 6z suites, cutting all but the mountains out of the WSW area and giving the valley a WWA. 3) Push the chips all in, with WSWs extending several counties west of the current watch area. 12-16” in the mountains, 6-12” in TRI, 3-6” toward TYS. John doesn’t receive so much as a WWA, all but guaranteeing warning criteria snowfall in his backyard.
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