snowman19

I think it goes super on the weeklies by late October. That said, as @csnavywx posted, people are judging (and doubting) this El Niño and its evolution against the satellite era Ninos, can’t blame them since that’s the only real verifiable data we have. That sample size is extremely limited and small. Paul Roundy has been saying since March that this Nino was developing like the pre-satellite data Ninos of yester year. We are now seeing things really come together for a super El Nino event and come together in a VERY different way than the most recent super El Niños (72-73, 82-83, 97-98, 15-16) did….

Agreed. IMO this El Nino reaches super (+2.0C) on the weeklies by the end of October. I think we will be talking about this event for many, many years to come. Research papers are going to be written about this one

Excellent point. And @Gawx, the OHC is above +1 again and it’s coupling. The WWB and EPAC DWKW is strengthening. @raindancewx Here it comes…

IMO this El Niño is going super trimonthly ONI, I’m getting more confident in that opinion by the day. I also think it stays east-based/EP and I think the +IOD gets stronger than what the models had originally projected. What happens with the forcing come November is what I’m watching….

+IOD gaining strength @raindancewx

You are the worst, most clueless, worthless, useless member (troll) on this forum. Ignorant as the day is long and not very smart to boot. Nothing but non stop idiocy from you. Go crawl back under your rock

The daily hitting +1.5C would make the daily reading strong would it not? Am I supposed to say the daily reading is weak?

I’m concerned about where it’s going for September, and where the starting point for that month is going to be but yea, August probably averages around +1.3C as a whole

The Nino has gone strong in region 3.4 on the CRW (over +1.5C), yesterday’s OISST update wasn’t far behind at over +1.44…..

I think it peaks a little later, December would be my guess. If I had to make an early guess right now, I can see the trimonthly ONI go something like +2.2C, +2.3C, +2.1C for NDJ. The models show that this Nino is going to be very slow to weaken after it peaks, through JFM. I also agree with Griteater that this event stays east-based/EP

@Volcanic Winter Could you offer some insight into this please?

https://x.com/bennollweather/status/1694421806835450262?s=46&t=NChJQK9_PUjA1K7D2SMojw

I agree, given the renewed subsurface warming under regions 1+2 and 3 from the WWB/DWKW, I think this Nino stays a classic east-based/EP event, all the models show regions 1+2 and 3 staying warmer than 3.4 and 4 through January. Bjerknes (positive) feedback is already going in earnest in those regions. Also, as @Gawx pointed out, the OHC is climbing again and we are about to experience a strong round of -SOI…I’m going a little higher than you for the region 3.4 trimonthly ONI peak, I’m thinking +2.1C - +2.5C for NDJ. This +IOD was under forecasted IMO, I think we see a strong event, we’re already ahead of schedule and it just started. Strong +IOD correlates very well to +ENSO

The effects were on the southern hemisphere first, it took longer to migrate into the northern hemisphere

If anything the extreme amounts of water vapor in the stratosphere from Hunga Tonga argues for a cold stratosphere/strong SPV/++NAM, one factor I know but still…

From HM: https://x.com/antmasiello/status/1693972459962146932?s=46&t=NChJQK9_PUjA1K7D2SMojw https://x.com/antmasiello/status/1693979265379754146?s=46&t=NChJQK9_PUjA1K7D2SMojw https://x.com/antmasiello/status/1693975229322686476?s=46&t=NChJQK9_PUjA1K7D2SMojw

The monsoon has to end first, that will happen in early September

The reason why the IOD going positive is important is this….it is going to end the eastern hemispheric monsoon quickly, which should bolster the El Niño. According to the latest data, it’s climbing rather quickly, actually ahead of where it was forecasted to be at this point in time. Also, would appear the SOI has gone very solidly negative again https://x.com/jnmet/status/1694001198754570382?s=46&t=NChJQK9_PUjA1K7D2SMojw

Once the monsoon is gone, it’s all systems go time for the Nino. Good bye trade winds. IMO we will see the strong WWB and DWKWs you speak of. Here comes the +IOD assist

Correct, literally all the models show regions 1+2 and 3 remaining warmer than regions 3.4 and 4 right through January

As I mentioned above, the +IOD just officially got going on the new update (+0.79). Early next month, the monsoon circulation ends in the eastern hemisphere and that’s when this El Niño should get going and start really warming up. The end of the monsoon should kill the trade winds off in the central PAC and that’s when the WWB/DWKW activity begins in earnest

@GaWxRegion 3.4 is now over +1.4C on the OISST

The +IOD regime has started, jumped up to +0.79 on the new update

After about the 1st week of September, the monsoon circulation in the eastern hemisphere should completely collapse and that’s when the trades should fall apart/reverse and region 3.4 warming should really take off in a big way