snowman19
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Everything posted by snowman19
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Paul Roundy is still gung ho about a strong east-based event, he says this Nino is developing like the pre-1982 El Niños:
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From Paul Roundy:
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He stated that a few times on twitter
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Agreed. The upgrades since 2011 have been great. I very, very seriously doubt the POAMA is that far off right now, run after run and even getting stronger with the peak. Could it be off slightly? Sure, anything is possible. But that far off? As in it’s not even going to at least get strong? Not in my opinion. Different story if it were the Euro or CFS
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I still think strong is definitely a very distinct possibility
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Yea, based on what you’ve been showing, I’m becoming more convinced that this Nino event stays east-based and never goes basin-wide or Modoki. I honestly wouldn’t be surprised if Region 4 stays neutral throughout this event given what’s been going on and projected to continue. This would be the 1st true Eastern Pacific/EP El Niño in forever
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At this point, it’s a given that there’s going to be a significant El Niño. What you are showing tells me that the chances of this becoming a Modoki or even a basin-wide event are getting slimmer and slimmer. I’m wondering if Region 4 even reaches El Niño status now, it may not. This is just lending more support that this stays an exclusively east-based/Eastern Pacific El Nino event
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This is highly anomalous for June
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I would recommend you give your gut another month
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https://www.space.com/nasa-spots-sign-of-el-nino-from-space-2023?utm_content=space.com&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=socialflow
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So it was off by 0.6….
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If nothing else, the atmosphere is definitely primed for El Niño
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Up until this year, the POAMA did not have a warm bias unlike some other models
