snowman19

Like you said, if this actually is Hunga Tonga induced, good luck proving that right now, that will take months of strat experts looking at before any such conclusion would be made. I guess maybe the high solar flux/solar max could somehow be playing a role? Is there a +IOD connection? Could the unusual evolution of this El Niño (see Paul Roundy’s detailed twitter post from this morning) be playing a role? Has it altered atmospheric circulations enough to cause it? Lots of questions that won’t be answered probably until this winter is all said and done

Besides Hunga Tonga, I wonder if the ++IOD is also playing a role (i.e. 2019)

Big question….Is this the work of the stratospheric volcanic water vapor saturation from Hunga Tonga doing its dirty work now that we have gone into the cold months??

This is a really good thread with detailed explanations, take the time to read:

IMO 3.4 going super is inevitable at this point. Big subsurface push. The sea level anomaly and warm water volume are rising very fast and expanding now with the DWKW/WWBs and they have been ever since 10/30. We are on the verge of substantial strengthening/warming at the surface. This one is coming

No doubt in my mind that this warming event is going to be major or that Nino 3.4 will eclipse +2.0C this month, I also think there’s a good chance Nino 3 gets into the high +2C’s

You are going to get your push. Our ideas really aren’t that different, I’m just slightly higher with my trimonthly peak ONI estimate at +2.1C - +2.3C. Despite some incredibly bad info on twitter, this Nino event HAS NOT peaked nor is it going to rapidly fall apart. This DWKW and WWB mean business

A very well coupled +IOD/El Nino system in place. With continued Nino strengthening, they are only going to continue constructively interfering with each other

Two points, #1 Expanding upon what @jbenedet just posted, you don’t see a raging STJ in Nina’s or uncoupled Nino events: #2 This WWB is getting stronger:

So your forecast is this Nino has already peaked, no more warming/strengthening/coupling from here on out. The WWBs and DWKWs are not going east of the dateline and they are going to have no effect, the entire event is going the wrong way. Got it. Good luck with that. I wish you God speed with your forecast

***ALERT!!! ALERT!!!****

Interesting….

What in the world are you talking about?? No one is rewriting anything. That tweet I just posted simply explained why the MEI isn’t measuring up right now. The SOI has actually been impressive for months per @Gawx and I’ve never argued about main forcing. This Nino is going to warm, it hasn’t peaked, the peak most likely happens late December/January and it’s very well coupled as I have explained in the past couple of weeks in here

Better than your CFS forecasts of region 1+2 being in a La Niña by now lmfaoooo

Are you looking at what’s going on right now oceanic wise? They are all about to warm big time. You’ll just ignore it when it happens though. Funny, don’t see you mentioning the RONI anymore lol And besides Eric Webb, the other tweet I just posted gave a very clear explanation of why the MEI is the way it is. And I’ll admit, you have Mark Margavage, Joe Bastardi, Henry Margusity and Tony Pann on your side, going HUGE cold and snowy winter, MEI to the rescue!!! 4 true all stars with those guys in the weather community. Legends. I’m sure this winter will work out superbly for you when you have them on your bandwagon lol

As you suspected, the NMME got stronger with the El Nino on this new run, especially in regions 3 and 3.4. That QPF map is indicative of a raging, roaring STJ crashing into the west coast and flooding the CONUS with PAC air. I’m sure @CAPE and @mitchnick will throughly enjoy lol

Hmmmmmm, very interesting stuff….. @CAPE @40/70 Benchmark @bluewave @Daniel Boone @Terpeast @brooklynwx99 @griteater @GaWx @stadiumwave @mitchnick

Big SOI drop again, approaching -20

Strongest WWB/DWKW of this event. We are very likely 8+ weeks away from the El Niño peak….

A few things, this WWB/DWKW is major and this Nino is not peaking/peaked right now, the peak doesn’t likely happen until late December or January, more warming is coming and substantial warming at that Further this +IOD is still very much alive and very well coupled, very strong atmospheric response

Yes I do and I don’t think it peaks until late December or January