snowman19
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Everything posted by snowman19
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The breakdown looks to start the last 6 days of the month or so. It probably doesn’t fall apart completely until the 1st week of February
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Those 10:1 snowmaps are so ridiculously overdone it’s not even funny. They’re counting sleet as snow. If you really think there’s going to be no sleet and they’re showing a major snowstorm for the metro area, you have absolutely no idea whatsoever how to read a sounding or what mid level low tracks mean, the midlevel temps are torched…
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This event has some serious problems, major problems actually. There is no -NAO block locking the CAD/confluence in, there is no big 50/50 low locking the CAD/confluence in, the surface high moves off shore, out into the Atlantic and we are into return flow before the precip even starts. The surface gets ugly. The midlevel lows track west of us and the midlevels absolutely torch because of that. If you look at the soundings you have sleet at best, not snow, and plain rain. The 10:1 ratio snowmaps are horrible, they are counting sleet as snow and are grossly inaccurate. This is an inland runner all the way and has been for a couple of days now
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Beware those 10:1 ratio maps on Pivotal weather, it’s counting sleet as snow. Look at the Euro mid-level low tracks, they are west of us. The midlevels are going to torch, a lot of that is going to be sleet and not snow
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No -NAO block to trap the high/confluence, it just slides off into the Atlantic and we are already into return flow by the time the precip gets here. It also doesn’t force secondary redevelopment off shore
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Yep. It’s the GFS being the horrific model it is and chasing convection off shore. That’s why it’s putting the low out there. There is nothing to stop this from cutting inland, there’s no block, the high/confluence move off shore before it gets here, you’re already into return flow before the precip starts and if you look at every other storm so far, they have all trended west/north as we get close to the event
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I don’t believe any “east trend” in the GEFS. Every storm this year so far has trended west and north as we get within a day or 2 of it, every one, there is no reason to believe it….we don’t have a block in place to force the track off shore
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I knew you had to comment. As soon as I posted I knew the alarms sounded in your basement. I think you have a crush. Lol I love how I live in your head rent free lol
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It’s like when people say “there’s deep snowpack, a low won’t travel over it, it’s going to be forced east, or south” If you get a shortwave to amp enough the low will plow right over 3 feet of snow, it doesn’t care about snow and ice pack at the surface….
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Jim is good, however, that is not a true -NAO block. That is a pop up thumb ridge, if it really even sets up that way
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I was just about to post that lol Even if this thing was to play out as the op Euro just depicted, that would be a heavy front end dump to rain to dry slot. What you definitely don’t want is for it to cut any further west than what it just did
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If that massive -EPO ridge is real, looks like we see a -PNA, +AO, +NAO pattern to go along with it by early February. Assuming that’s correct, it would definitely keep the cold around
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Ditto for the ICON and Euro. It’s the GFS vs the world. The CMC is in the UKMET camp too
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That’s not a doomsday post. I just said we are in a very favorable snowstorm pattern before then. There is a window. You don’t like if anyone mentions that there may be a time frame with a beginning and end to a good pattern
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We may have to wait until after 1/18 for something. The pattern will still be favorable at that point through about 1/25. I think after 1/25 things may become hostile with a +NAO and a tanking -PNA…..
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Let’s hope we can score something before 1/25, because the PNA is going to tank big time again. I think we do score something
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The 1/15 - 1/25 period is definitely legit. Big potential for sure. After 1/25 I think RNA takes over again
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The models are still insistent on IO convection firing at the end of the month. Guess we’ll have to wait and see if forcing really does move there or not…..
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Thank you to you and everyone else. It was my Aunt, cancer, she had been fighting it for the last 17+ years, she first got diagnosed back in 2004, she finally lost her battle. At least she’s at peace now. Just an ugly, horrible disease. My hope is that one day they find a cure….
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I was at a funeral yesterday when it was snowing that’s why I wasn’t posting during the storm. But thanks for asking. Troll
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The EPS is literally all over the map for next weekend, there is no clear trend on it at all to say the least lol
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Rockland was a disgrace. There is no way the DPW crews did not know it was coming. It was advertised 24 hours before and a WWA was posted. They should have been on the roads salting everything before it even started, instead they went out after it was already a disaster and played catch up. There were accidents galore that morning
