snowman19

After the MJO event later this month the warming will take off big time. Even Eric Webb, who was skeptical, has come onboard now. The CFS is hot garbage btw, that model had a borderline weak Nino developing last year at one point

Oh yea, and I’m waiting for the big ENSO region 1+2 SST drop to an iceberg that you’ve been posting is coming since the end of March…

@gawx This looks like the real deal for later this month. If this is correct (Paul Roundy says it is) a very strong MJO event with an associated major WWB is going to take shape. If it happens, this will couple the atmosphere, cause a strong DWKW and we will see major warming in region 3.4 and pushing east into 3 and 1+2. It will also help to really get the +IOD going and constructively interfere with the El Niño. It needs to be monitored very closely

@Gawx Is there confirmation that region 3 has shot up to +1.9C?

What is your hero’s Joe Bastardi, Tony Pann, Mark Margavage and Henry Margusity saying Metsfan? [emoji1782][emoji1782]

Region 4 is neutral again, the calls by some that this is going to turn into a Modoki look to be in very huge trouble. This El Nino is more east-based than 1997 and 1982. I think once the seasonal MJO/WWB parade gets going in August/September, region 3.4 warming should really take off. The SST warmth in regions 3 and 1+2 is extremely impressive as is the subsurface there. The DWKWs keep breaking at the South American coast, which is something we aren’t used to and it’s keeping the Bjerknes feedback loop going in the eastern regions

Remember when you were convinced this year was definitely going to be a Modoki? Or how you thought last winter was going to be a Nino at one point? I’d show some humility at this point

We knew that was happening. The +3.2C was ridiculously overdone. +2.5C is definitely reasonable and within the realm I’m expecting for the November/December peak. I think the ultimate peak is +2.1C - +2.5C and it occurs late November/December

@Gawx Region 3 is blazing too….over +1.7C now

@Gawx Coral Reef has region 3.4 at +1.0C and region 1+2 at a whopping +3.2C

Glad to know you think Paul Roundy’s musings are a circle jerk. Nice, professional talk. You know what’s hilarious? If I dared to do what you did, went completely off topic in an El Niño thread and posted the CANSIPS showing a torch for the winter….7, 8 and 9 months from now, you and a few others would have nailed me to the cross. I would have been crucified. We would have had the Passion of the Christ on here

Incredibly intelligent post from you, as always. Absolutely riveting. The brainiac of the forum. The guy who doesn’t know the difference between facebook and twitter, that says all you need to know right there lol

I’d really like to know how a strictly El Niño thread suddenly turned into a winter thread with ridiculous clown maps 7, 8, 9 months (Jan, Feb, Mar) from now getting posted. Really? And it’s from the CANSIPS model no less, which did an absolutely horrific job last winter, continuously showing huge blocking in the heart of winter that never came close to happening but that’s besides the point. Talk about going completely and totally off topic with wishcasting fantasies

DT pointed this out a month ago but the CDAS is notoriously biased too cool and is inaccurate

Honestly, I think HM is right. The 1925 El Niño is the closest match to this year. It’s actually very close, I would say it’s the best match https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/clim/28/3/jcli-d-14-00398.1.xml

Paul Roundy thinks this is going to become a super event, less than an hour ago: