snowman19

What is your hero’s Joe Bastardi, Tony Pann, Mark Margavage and Henry Margusity saying Metsfan? [emoji1782][emoji1782]

Region 4 is neutral again, the calls by some that this is going to turn into a Modoki look to be in very huge trouble. This El Nino is more east-based than 1997 and 1982. I think once the seasonal MJO/WWB parade gets going in August/September, region 3.4 warming should really take off. The SST warmth in regions 3 and 1+2 is extremely impressive as is the subsurface there. The DWKWs keep breaking at the South American coast, which is something we aren’t used to and it’s keeping the Bjerknes feedback loop going in the eastern regions

Remember when you were convinced this year was definitely going to be a Modoki? Or how you thought last winter was going to be a Nino at one point? I’d show some humility at this point

We knew that was happening. The +3.2C was ridiculously overdone. +2.5C is definitely reasonable and within the realm I’m expecting for the November/December peak. I think the ultimate peak is +2.1C - +2.5C and it occurs late November/December

@Gawx Region 3 is blazing too….over +1.7C now

@Gawx Coral Reef has region 3.4 at +1.0C and region 1+2 at a whopping +3.2C

Glad to know you think Paul Roundy’s musings are a circle jerk. Nice, professional talk. You know what’s hilarious? If I dared to do what you did, went completely off topic in an El Niño thread and posted the CANSIPS showing a torch for the winter….7, 8 and 9 months from now, you and a few others would have nailed me to the cross. I would have been crucified. We would have had the Passion of the Christ on here

Incredibly intelligent post from you, as always. Absolutely riveting. The brainiac of the forum. The guy who doesn’t know the difference between facebook and twitter, that says all you need to know right there lol

I’d really like to know how a strictly El Niño thread suddenly turned into a winter thread with ridiculous clown maps 7, 8, 9 months (Jan, Feb, Mar) from now getting posted. Really? And it’s from the CANSIPS model no less, which did an absolutely horrific job last winter, continuously showing huge blocking in the heart of winter that never came close to happening but that’s besides the point. Talk about going completely and totally off topic with wishcasting fantasies

DT pointed this out a month ago but the CDAS is notoriously biased too cool and is inaccurate

Honestly, I think HM is right. The 1925 El Niño is the closest match to this year. It’s actually very close, I would say it’s the best match https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/clim/28/3/jcli-d-14-00398.1.xml

Paul Roundy thinks this is going to become a super event, less than an hour ago:

Looks like some big warming coming up in regions 1+2 and 3, where is subsurface is already incredibly warm. The WWB and DWKW already starting to do their dirty work there. I think 1+2 officially goes over +3.0C very shortly and it should start expanding into region 3. The very east-based nature of this El Niño continues

Vapid. You must have some real serious reading comprehension problems. Facebook? Lol Who’s posting facebook? Wow. No clue. And I’ll take HM’s (Anthony Masiello) analysis any day over yours. [emoji4]

“By the way, every event is unique. We have been on step with 97-98 in terms of weekly 3.4 numbers. But other big events like 82-83 took until Aug-Sep to really get going. There's no time constraints here to go super. If the right coupling happens, it doesn't matter when...” - HM

HM has said he’s open to and can see it possibly getting stronger than that and hasn’t made that preliminary +1.6C - +1.8C guess his official forecast yet. I still think this thing really takes off in a big way in the next several months and eclipses +2.0C. All we can do is wait, watch and see

Here comes El Niño…..

Kind of like last year when the CFS was showing the La Niña totally collapsing and going warm neutral/borderline weak El Niño at one point….yea….that worked out superbly. The CFS is a wretchedly awful model.