snowman19
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Everything posted by snowman19
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Please stop. Absolutely horrible analysis and bad, bad info. If you are going to post nonsense like this just don’t post. This Nino is in fact very well coupled, SOI, STJ response, SSTs, WWB, Nino standing wave/convection, etc. This is a typical MJO phase 8 response for this time of the year with +ENSO, +GLAAM. Phase 8 isn’t cold this time of the year with a Nino in place. Look at the MJO composite!
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The EPAC tropics have come alive. This is only going to positively feedback and cause further Nino strengthening (WWBs behind these tropical cyclones). The strengthening system is in place now and further coupling is coming. I predict we are at or above +2.0C in region 3.4 by 11/7.
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In which tweet does he “hint” that? Can you post it?
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Buildup would be advancement look at the chart. Its awful, the lowest out of all those years
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For those who follow it (I don’t anymore) but Siberian snowcover buildup through today has been really, really awful. This is Judah’s update from 10/10 and it hasn’t gotten any better since, looks bad for at least the next week too
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The IOD rapidly approaching +2 and the Nino is off to the races already….and the WWB just got going. IMO very likely we are above +2.0C come early next month….
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I’m more confident than ever that we go super (over +2.0C) early next month. My guess stands…+2.1C - +2.3C trimonthly average ONI for NDJ
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Region 3.4 (+1.72C - highest of this event) and region 3 (+2.2C) SSTs are soaring rapidly, -SOI has also strengthened. This Nino is off to the races: Nino 3.4: https://cyclonicwx.com/data/sst/ssta_graph_nino34.png Nino 3: https://cyclonicwx.com/data/sst/ssta_graph_nino3.png SOI: https://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/soi/
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This month and next month is when you want to monitor the SPV and stratospheric temperatures to get an idea of possible effects coming up this winter from all the record volcanic (Hunga Tonga) water vapor that has saturated the arctic/polar stratosphere on our side of the hemisphere
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Should see some real good warming in 3.4 and 3 now. DWKW. And the +IOD continues to strengthen rapidly as well
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It already coupled:
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It was for the NYC metro area…
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I fully expected February and March to be lost causes last winter, I did not expect the unmitigated December and January disasters though in spite of the healthy 3rd year La Niña however
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I can easily see this eclipsing +2.0C in November: Region 3.4: https://cyclonicwx.com/data/sst/crw_ssta_graph_nino34.png Region 3 and 1+2: https://cyclonicwx.com/data/sst/crw_ssta_graph_nino3.png https://cyclonicwx.com/data/sst/crw_ssta_graph_nino12.png
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It appears some healthy warming is imminent: “Do you think this Nino will reach super status?”
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You’re right about that, maybe they should have said the strongest event in the last 20 years? Although this one may very well rival 1997’s event. One thing is for sure, this Nino is coupling now:
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Regardless of what happens with ENSO between now and December it does appear that we will have a new +IOD record on our hands:
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+IOD standing wave in place now
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I’m calling it now, IMO we go above +2.0C in region 3.4 come the 1st week of November and November will average at least +2.1C. That will be the 1st month of the trimonthly super peak. I’m also calling that this +IOD becomes stronger than the 2019 event, peaks in early November and lasts longer than 19-20 did, doesn’t go neutral until February
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Potential Hunga Tonga effects aside, that study has some pretty convincing evidence that the NAM and NAO may not be as favorable as some think due to the very strong +IOD event and the effects from that
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It is definitely east-based/EP when looking at raw SSTs and the EP look is about to be reinforced. I would also wait until November before declaring that this has no chance of becoming super either
