snowman19
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Everything posted by snowman19
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The choices are either staying east-based or basin-wide. The Modoki fantasies by some are pure wishcasts
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Yes, dynamical guidance is getting warmer with each run. IMO, this one is headed for a super peak sometime in December. Probably “low-end” super (+2.1C - +2.5C) but super none the less
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Here it comes:
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We’ll have to come back to this at the end of March and see if the theory worked out. I don’t really have an opinion either way. I’m curious though. However, I do remember the low arctic sea ice theory many were pushing several years ago (low arctic sea ice will lead to -NAM/-AO and -NAO). That failed horribly, I can’t even remember how many winter forecasts were assuming strong arctic and Atlantic blocking because of the record low arctic sea ice and it turned into a monumental, epic fail
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I would wait until the beginning of November to reasonably predict where the main tropical convective forcing will be. I don’t care what the seasonal models show in July for D, J, F, M. The forcing may completely change by October/November
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The ENSO (SST) configurations 57-58 and 65-66 looked Modoki by the start of winter. This one is extremely east-based right now
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It’s as much of a trash analog as 57-58, 65-66, 76-77, 02-03 and 09-10 are. A certain someone tweets literally everyday about how great those analogs are. If anyone really believes that this Niño is turning into a Modoki, they are either totally delusional or on crack
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I expect this trolling garbage from you. Par for the course. Anyway, I was well aware of how the 1925-26 winter turned out, I said it was a very good match for the ENSO evolution, as far as the AGW furnace background state we are in now, it’s not even remotely close. Completely and totally different climate state. Like not even in the ballpark
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HM mentioned it last month, but this Nino is almost a carbon copy of the strong, extremely east-based Nino event that developed back in 1925. It’s a very good match actually ENSO wise, the current AGW background state not withstanding obviously
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Good point with the MJO. Looks like a healthy +IOD develops in a couple of weeks and continues through December. That will constructively interfere with the Nino and support continued strengthening and development over the next 5 months http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/ocean/outlooks/#region=IOD
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IMO, We are into a strong Nino by astronomical fall. Are we +1.9C into a strong Nino? I don’t know, but I think we will be above the +1.5C threshold at that point
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“I am El Niño….”
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I said yesterday, I don’t think it peaks THAT high, but I could absolutely see a super peak of +2.5C come December. My ballpark peak range is +2.1C - +2.5C. The latest Euro shows a super peak and the CFS is caving to that
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Wow! The new POAMA run isn’t backing down, shows the El Nino peaking at +2.9C in December: http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/ocean/outlooks/#region=NINO34
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It’s trending towards the Euro, no shock. Pretty good evidence now that we are very likely in a strong El Nino by the Equinox and most likely “super” (above +2.0C) by November/December. While I doubt a ‘97 or ‘15 style super peak, I think we very well may be somewhere in the neighborhood of +2.1C - +2.5C in region 3.4 for a final peak come December
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Based on how this is progressing and what the models are showing, it most likely peaks in December. I think we are in a strong El Niño event by the fall equinox and I think we surpass the +2.0C (super) threshold sometime in late November or December
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I’m growing more confident that we will already be in a strong El Niño by the start of fall. I think it takes until late November/December to eclipse +2.0C in region 3.4
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HM and others said those RMM plots are normally very inaccurate due to noise and completely miss MJO signals. The VP and OLR are much more accurate
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IMO, I’d say strong is a given at this point, 100%. I’d give a “super” event (above +2.0C) a 95% chance come November/December
