snowman19

When there is an overwhelming ENSO signal (strong/super El Niño), it’s not hype, it’s going to alter the global heat budget and have a very profound effect on the global longwave pattern. In the absence of an overwhelming signal (weak/moderate Nino or Niña), then other factors may end up overriding it so to speak

I have no comment on snow, it’s too hard to predict because one storm like 2/83 or 1/16 in a super El Niño can skew the numbers. That said, if there’s an ONI of over +2C, I don’t see a cold winter (Dec-Mar), especially given AGW. If we do in fact get a trimonthly super peak as the models are showing, I just can’t imagine any month with -2F, -3F, etc. negative departures in the Mid-Atlantic or Northeast. The STJ is going to flood the CONUS and Canada with maritime PAC air, it would be a raging firehose. The south may see -1F departures due to solar irradiance from constant raging STJ cloud cover

Actually I wasn’t talking about you, not sure why you felt the need to attack but whatever. And I haven’t given an opinion on where I think the forcing will be other than saying “wait until November”. I have however given my opinion on the ultimate strength of this El Nino which I believe will be a solidly super ONI peak for NDJ. As far as these climate models, I would err on the side of caution given their monumental, epic fail for the 19-20 winter. I will never forget the non stop climate model hype that summer and fall of the historic winter and historic blocking, cold, snow, that was coming for the east coast, boy oh boy was that a bust for the ages

I have a feeling the people who think the forcing is just going to stay pinned like a statue exactly where it is right now for the next 7 months because some of the climate models say so and show what they want, may be very disappointed come December…..

We are going to have to wait until November to see where we stand obviously, but assuming ENSO region 3.4 goes super as all the models now show, and we get a healthy +IOD event, I would be shocked if the forcing doesn’t move east. How far east? Who knows. 3.4 going super is going to dramatically affect the global heat budget and something is going to have to give. I can’t imagine seeing La Niña forcing just staying in place given that projected setup. But again, let’s see where we are 3 months from now

The new dynamic model average is for a super El Niño, as GaWx already posted. The average is a super trimonthly ONI peak for NDJ. We have consensus….CFS, CANSIPS, EURO, BOM, JMA, UKMET, MeteoFrance…all unanimously show a super Nino now

Right, it seems region 3.4 is going to be the western limit of the Nino warming. All the major warming/warmth being shown is concentrated in regions 1+2, 3 and 3.4.

Not surprising. The strong WWB is continuing in the eastern and central Pacific right now and you also have this: https://x.com/jnmet/status/1692559270028456417?s=46&t=NChJQK9_PUjA1K7D2SMojw

Those years were all super El Niño years. The new BOM update has the international average of models showing a +2.3C peak for NDJ

One thing is for sure, IF we get to early November and there’s a super Nino or one is imminent and IF there’s canonical El Niño forcing, I’m going torch. I don’t care what the MEI or the Macaroni index or the CANSIPS or any other seasonal model says at that point given those 2 circumstances. Again, IF. I remember all the people who got burned really bad going for a cold winter back in 15-16 with their “west-based super Nino” and “west of 1997” wishcasting (ie. JB, Judah Cohen, etc). 15-16 was one lone snowstorm in a sea of unending warmth. As far as snow, I won’t go there because one rogue, lucky, thread the needle storm can dump in super Ninos

Yea, regions 3.4, 3 and 1+2 are all warming. 3.4 and 3 are the warmest they’ve ever been on both OISST and CRW. Region 1+2 is about to warm above +3.5C again, Region 3 is about to go above +2.0C and I would not be surprised if region 3.4 is strong (over +1.5C) by 8/31 on both OISST and CRW, it’s around +1.4C right now. https://x.com/jnmet/status/1691820815447151076?s=46&t=NChJQK9_PUjA1K7D2SMojw

This is the 1st time I’ve ever shown the Coral Reef on here you vapid little airhead. The OISST is over +1.3C you fool. It’s almost as funny as how you keep posting the CFS showing region 1+2 plunging into a La Niña over and over for the last 5 months in a row, meanwhile it’s warmed to historic levels. Troll. And I know you have 2 accounts on here, your other alter ego is “Thunderbolt”. You’re not even smart enough to do a good job covering it up

Either way, it does appear that we may well be into a strong El Niño by the end of this month. Coral Reef Watch has region 3.4 up to +1.44C and warming

The atmospheric coupling has already started. Also, looks like the models are getting stronger with the +IOD https://x.com/jnmet/status/1691820815447151076?s=46&t=NChJQK9_PUjA1K7D2SMojw https://x.com/jnmet/status/1691820815447151076?s=46&t=NChJQK9_PUjA1K7D2SMojw

I think the question will be how raging is the STJ? Does it just blast PAC maritime air across the entire CONUS and Canada? A La 1997. I can see -AO/-NAO but are the EPO floodgates wide open? I don’t have any confidence in sustained -EPO and +PNA with a super Nino completely juicing the STJ and displacing the Aleutian Low. And no @4070Benchmark, I’m interested in the CANSIPS peak in 3.4

Oh yea, most likely December is a torch and I think if we had a +PMM this event would have warmed with ease west of regions 1+2 and 3. The PMM is what I believe is inhibiting that, 3.4 is definitely going to warm substantially but I have serious doubts about region 4 warming all that much. The subsurface beneath 4 is already gone

Region 3.4 is obviously going to warm a lot (very likely become super) over the next few months but IMO this event stays a classic Eastern Pacific/EP El Niño right into this winter. One of the big factors I think that prevented this one from evolving into a more Modoki or west-based event is and has been the very persistent -PMM. The -PMM has been strong and firmly entrenched since last fall and I believe is one of the main reasons why this event has remained so east-based. Had the PMM flipped positive I think the way this event would have developed and configured itself quite a bit differently

I’m trying to find the tweet about the CANSIPS I saw from this morning, if I find it I’ll post it for you. Looks like the WWB in the East PAC is gaining strength, it’s going to cause another DWKW and positively feedback/reinforce this already very east-based Nino configuration

@gawx Just read on twitter that the CANSIPS is showing the Nino going super now, can you confirm? Can’t find anything myself yet

If the November runs show the exact same forcing then things will be interesting

It’s also been showing region 1+2 going into a La Niña since March

This: https://x.com/osuwxguy/status/1691164118231781376?s=46&t=NChJQK9_PUjA1K7D2SMojw

IMO the forcing moves east by December but that’s a wait and see obviously. And if I’m a betting man, the CANSIPS and UKMET show a super El Nino on the next updates like the Euro, JMA, POAMA already do. The CFS is also warming

The current strong WWB forming in the EPAC, which is going to initiate another DWKW and subsurface warming, the atmosphere finally (solidly) going into Nino “mode”, the projected -SOI round coming up and the start of an uptick in OHC again. The +IOD taking shape. The current OISST has a starting point of +1.25C in 3.4 before the new warming even begins, 1+2 at over +3.4C and 3 at over +1.8C