snowman19

Possibly, yes. Then the question becomes the official ERSST, which has been running warmer than the OISST. CRW is over +2.2C FWIW….

@GaWx Thinking tomorrow’s 3.4 weekly update is +2.1C

Agree. The risk with the 7th is inland runner, not OTS/south IMO, risk with the 10th, way far out there though, is cutter then where does it redevelop (if it does)

The only thing that saves it is that gigantic 50/50 low. The pattern out west is trash. Pray the 50/50 is real, without it, it’s an inland runner

Not even remotely close

Let’s see what it does to the weekly number on Monday

One thing is for sure, the folks who were saying that this El Niño already peaked are going to be dead wrong

Awesome call!!!

It’s insane that we have a super El Niño (over +2.2C and still warming) in place, with it peaking into early January and have that pattern showing up mid-late month. Shocking really. Kudos to @bluewave for picking up on it

Looks like the models that showed a final peak in January were correct. The slow decay should start by mid-January

IMO the bigger question is how long can you sustain a -EPO and non hostile PAC jet with an El Niño this strong? If that early-mid month EPO goes bye bye and the jet starts raging, the PAC floodgates open up and our source region goes to hell again. A -NAO/-AO won’t matter in that case because you will be trapping PAC garbage underneath the blocking

You need to move to Fort Kent lol

With one exception….97-98 was actually colder. But in terms of sensible weather, 97-98 is starting to look better and better

IMO early January trends to I-84 north events, I doubt anything at all south of there. The airmass is total garbage

There is nothing to stop the IO and Maritime Continent MJO phases anymore either…the +IOD is rapidly weakening and should be neutral come mid-January

Big difference is that early January, 2016 actually had true arctic air on our side of the pole and a good source region and the PAC actually cooperated, albeit briefly

IMO this winter has a little over 3 weeks to get its act together and put up or shut up if it’s really going to get cold and snowy or it’s not going to happen

Agreed. I’m giving it until 1/20. If there’s nothing absolutely imminent as far as real cold and a workable PAC at that point (not fantasy cold and snow on the long range models at day 15), then I’m going full ratter and calling my cold/snowy February guess a bust. I don’t care if we get a -NAO/-AO if the PAC is garbage. The *possible* major SSW and split fail and still abysmal snow and ice cover in the source region aside, this isn’t helping either, I don’t see how we magically go to a cooperative PAC/PAC jet with an El Niño this strong: @NittanyWx Thoughts? @bluewave

Just like you and a few others warned, there’s no true cold air, major source region issues….

I don’t think it’s substantial warming, but probably enough to get above +2.1C on the weeklies within the next 2 weeks, then a slow decline

It’s about to peak, probably within the next 2 weeks. That DWKW/WWB/-SOI is going to cause one final round of warming in 3.4 and 3 then it’s over. You can already see the subsurface cold starting to buildup in the WPAC

There have been huge red flags for the last 2 months….the record low snow and ice cover, all the arctic air locked on the other side of the pole in Eurasia and an El Niño with region 3.4 SSTs of over +2C in place since November. There is a load of work that needs to be done in our source region. It’s ugly right now

The El Nino winters that had turnarounds after a completely snowless November/December didn’t do so until either the tail end, last week of January or the beginning of February. If we get to 1/20 and there isn’t a sustained change imminent with actual legit cold (not -NAO/-AO trapping PAC air with a +EPO and screaming fast PAC jet with split-flow blasting into the west coast) then we can start thinking of a 97-98 type redux

You bring up a very good point….does the +EPO and raging fast PAC jet/split-flow give up with an El Niño this strong? This one is all but guaranteed to go down in history with the strongest events of the last 50+ years (72-73, 82-83, 97-98, 15-16). Even if we do see a -NAO/-AO, will it really matter with a crap Pacific? Or will it just trap PAC air underneath the high-latitude blocking?