snowman19

@Gawx The CPC weekly update has 3.4 up to +1.6C and it’s only 9/5….maybe the models showing September getting up to +1.9C aren’t so crazy… https://x.com/mario___ramirez/status/1699078869762888163?s=46&t=NChJQK9_PUjA1K7D2SMojw

Not surprised. At this point, I think a +2 or higher OHC come November is becoming very, very likely given what is projected to occur later on this month

@Gawx New record for this Nino event in the daily region 3.4 value….up to over +1.6C on both OISST and CRW https://cyclonicwx.com/data/sst/ssta_graph_nino34.png https://cyclonicwx.com/data/sst/crw_ssta_graph_nino34.png

If you want an end to the La Niña like forcing and get a cooling WPAC this is the way to do it (possible super El Niño and healthy +IOD for several months, -SOI, MJO waves propagating into the Pacific). All the models show this Nino feeding back and coupling very well atmospherically, evidenced by the raging STJ being shown on the seasonal models. The models also show that the Nino isn’t going to be in a hurry to decay once it peaks around December. They don’t show the IOD going back to neutral until January. The forcing response may take a bit, assuming the OLR plots are correct, which they probably are, and this MJO advances into the PAC, a big warming in the ENSO regions and OHC should come late this month into October with the wave stomping out the trade winds and causing a WWB/DWKW behind it. It’s going to be interesting to say the least

The OLR plots are showing the MJO moving into the PAC (phases 7 and 8) after 9/20. If correct, it’s going to trigger a WWB/DWKW and that is when we should see a substantial warming. Also expecting the OHC to continue rising through November, as is climo for that https://x.com/piw44/status/1698737106275955143?s=46&t=NChJQK9_PUjA1K7D2SMojw

I’m wondering if the strengthening +IOD (rapid warming of the western Indian Ocean, rapid cooling around Indonesia along with what should be associated subsidence in that region will finally shift the forcing east. We already saw some eastward migration of the forcing in August. This should lead to more -SOI and a boost to the El Niño warming. It’s going to be a very interesting 3 months coming up

I stand corrected then, I thought 72-73 was an east-based event to start

AGW is obviously a huge concern and temps need to be adjusted for that. I very seriously an early El Nino peak, all the models have a peak around November/December, then a very slow weakening through March. That, along with the healthy +IOD (shown to erode to neutral in January), leads me to believe we see subsidence over the eastern IO and Maritime Continent MJO phases. As far as ENSO orientation, I see it remaining east-lean through the winter…the models all show regions 1+2 and 3 staying warmer than 3.4 and 4 through January, which again makes me doubt west of the dateline La Niña like forcing. And @roardogeast-based El Niño doesn’t always mean complete blowtorch December, i.e. December, 1972. December, 1997 wasn’t a complete torch, warmer than normal, yes, the real blowtorch started in early January and carried through February and into the 1st half of March, 1998

Strong -PDO and I believe it was also -PMM (not 100% sure though), was also east-based super El Niño

My guess is a super trimonthly ONI (NDJ) of +2.2C, peaks in December: November: +2.2C December: +2.3C January: +2.2C

The models don’t show this +IOD event fading to neutral until sometime in January and they have actually gotten stronger with it, they also show a very gradual, slow weakening of what will most likely be a super El Niño through March after it peaks around December. Given that we are in the beginning of September, I fully expect the OHC to peak at or above +2.0, given that it normally doesn’t max out for another 3 months (November). I expect the MJO to propagate into the Pacific and with it, kill the trade winds and initiate another WWB and DWKW, enhancing the feedback. I think we see strong ENSO warming come the end of this month, also think we see much better coupling/strong -SOI as we move toward the end of the month

I am not good with the graphics, but in summary, we are seeing the +IOD strengthening, both oceanic (SST) and atmospheric response. This should constructively interfere with El Niño and lead to further warming and atmospheric coupling, -SOI in the next several weeks. The MJO propagating into the Pacific in conjunction with the +IOD, should also weaken the trades, cause a WWB/DWKW and also help lead to warming come the end of this month

https://x.com/selwyyyyn/status/1697565655653056596?s=46&t=NChJQK9_PUjA1K7D2SMojw https://x.com/jnmet/status/1697264889201348963?s=46&t=NChJQK9_PUjA1K7D2SMojw

I know you do when you want to show region 1+2 “dropping”

Toss it. The CFS being the flip flopping CFS. I have no faith in a model that’s been trying to cool region 1+2 into a La Niña since March. Garbage model

Around mid-month, the MJO wave moves/propagates into the Pacific and that’s when it constructively interferes with El Niño and really amplifies the warming. I think this month ends with region 3.4 at around +1.8C - +1.9C. This MJO looks to have good strength too

We get it, you have decided that the CANSIPS is definitely right and this is going to be a very cold and snowy winter. And maybe Jesus Christ came down and told you that the forcing isn’t going to move and it’s going to be “Modoki forcing” all winter. This is how many cold and snowy winters in a row that you have predicted now? You are going to find any excuse to force this too. First, the ONI wasn’t getting above moderate, if that, then it wasn’t going to get above strong or you were changing your name to snowman19ismydaddy. Then, “If it goes super it means nothing it won’t behave like a strong or super Nino”. Now, the ONI doesn’t matter at all, SSTs mean squat. The RONI and the MEI are the be all and end all now because it supports “doesn’t matter if the ONI goes to +3.0C, I’m still forecasting a cold and snowy winter”. You will latch onto any index you can find to support your forecast. Last year, when I pointed out that the La Niña was extremely well coupled and had a super low MEI, the MEI didn’t matter, ignore it, it’s outdated. Then the extremely +SOI didn’t matter either, ignore it, it’s overplayed. And you latched on to the ONI saying it wasn’t getting above weak/low end moderate and the CANSIPS showing an east-based Niña winter. The PDO doesn’t matter, the PDO and PNA are going to disconnect this year because…reasons! The EPO is going to be deeply negative too because the RONI shows the Nino is going to behave like a weak Nino. The polar fields support non stop deep -NAO/-AO all winter long too. Don’t argue with me…the solar and QBO will make it happen and Hunga Tonga is ancient history, means nothing. Once October comes, I’ll argue that Judah’s Siberian snowcover index very strongly supports this too! This winter isn’t getting decided by ENSO! Your agenda is clear as day

You mean actually discussing what this thread is about? Wow such a crazy concept!!!!!

https://x.com/wxpatel/status/1697310715369927029?s=46&t=NChJQK9_PUjA1K7D2SMojw

https://x.com/bennollweather/status/1697321453484740990?s=46&t=NChJQK9_PUjA1K7D2SMojw

Let’s see what it looks like in November when it really counts before we make conclusions on 8/31

Regardless of what happens with the forcing by winter, which is anyone’s guess right now, the common theme with ALL the models is that this El Nino isn’t going to be in any hurry to weaken and decay through March once it peaks (probably December). They all show a slow weakening starting in January

The OHC is rising very quickly, it typically does not max until November and it’s already up to +1.2. With 3 months of warming to go, it is extremely likely it reaches or exceeds +2 come November. Also, here comes the September MJO wave activity now that the monsoon is ending: https://x.com/bennollweather/status/1697204907160506418?s=46&t=NChJQK9_PUjA1K7D2SMojw

I am not talking about forcing in that comparison. As far as Nino evolution we are very far ahead of 1982 right now

We are way ahead of the 1982 super El Niño at this point in time….warmer at the surface and subsurface, warmer ONI, stronger WWBs/DWKWs, better positive feedback, stronger +IOD, stronger -SOI periods (since May), also more east-based than ‘82 as well. 1982 didn’t really take off until almost the end of September