snowman19

I should say the IOD is on it’s own cycle

This -IOD event started independent of the La Niña a couple of months ago. It should max out sometime in October. I think it will definitely have an impact on the tropical forcing/MJO going into winter

The IOD links I have are from google searches over the years. HM and Isotherm may be able to guide you better on that, they are well versed in it. As far as the La Niña, every model has it falling apart completely come March/April and region 3.4 finally going neutral then. Still way out in fantasy land but I think this 3 year event is done for good come spring, 2023

We are well on our way to this summer being one of the hottest in the last 45 years

Are you buying the models showing a moderate Niña peak in December?

I think part of what made 10-11 and 95-96 so good was they came off of an El Niño the previous winter so there was probably still some Nino lag going on. They both had a very active STJ those winters. 95-96 was also a strong +PDO winter, which is very unusual for a La Niña

For the most part, Nina’s are always better for New England…minus 95-96 and 10-11. The 2000-2001 winter had a cold/snowy December, January and February torched then winter made a comeback in March. It was remembered as a “decent” winter because of the December and March cold and the early March blizzard for parts of New England. That storm missed NYC - south, one of the worst busts of all time for that area….after days of blizzard hype, they even shutdown NYC in preparation for next to nothing

There is mounting evidence for a cold December like Dec, 2000 and possibly a weaker SPV, at least to start December. I think we need to watch what the sun does, it’s been very active so far this year and what effects the strong -IOD has on MJO waves/tropical convective forcing. A La Niña (possible Modoki?), -PDO and +QBO are the givens at this point. Personally, I can care less what arctic sea ice and Siberian snowcover does, but that’s just my opinion….

At this very early juncture, 2000-2001 is probably the best match, minus the +QBO we will have this coming winter, but other than that, it’s a pretty decent analog, as long as cold expectations are adjusted for today’s warmer climate…..

This La Niña is definitely becoming more “west-biased” as opposed to the last 2. Nino region 4 is the coldest it’s been since the late 1930’s

Yea, this one is definitely biased further west than last year like you had speculated, Nino region 4 is the coldest it’s been since the late 1930’s….

@bluewave @donsutherland1 Looks like a Modoki La Niña event is developing:

You had talked about this year’s La Niña being centered further west…..looks like this is becoming a Modoki event:

If the Euro is correct, parts of the metro will hit 100 degrees on Wednesday. It looks like an absolutely brutal day to be outside

@brooklynwx99Not sure if this would have winter implications on the Atlantic side (SSTs) but It’s starting to look like the calls for a very hyperactive hurricane season may not pan out:

It also looks like the calls back in the spring for a hyperactive Atlantic Hurricane season may be in some jeopardy:

Here are some good sources: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indian_Ocean_Dipole http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/history/ln-2010-12/IOD-what.shtml

Thanks to JB, a certain percentage of the population, particularly on the east coast, live in a delusional alternative reality and think AGW is a hoax and we are really going into an ice age. Any talk of a warming climate is just a big lie and a conspiracy. Black is white, white is black, down is up and up is down…..

AGW is also playing a big role in the present day….when analogs from 20+ years ago are used, it has to be done carefully with respect to the new warmer background state, the type of cold back then should not be expected this time around even if everything else matches up analog wise, on a smaller temp scale, don’t expect the same cold result you had 20+ years ago

-IOD’s serve to enhance La Niña development. El Niño’s very rarely happen along with a -IOD, the overwhelming majority of the time you see a +IOD with El Niño. You can see a positive or negative IOD phase with a Niña, but the -IOD really helps to augment the Niña state. When the IOD is in a very strong positive or negative phase, as it is now, its effects are even stronger. It is currently having a very significant impact on the MJO waves and their propagation, as I posted earlier, I would expect this to certainly continue into winter…..

@bluewave @donsutherland1 We discussed the very strong -IOD event a couple of weeks back, it looks to be having a very significant impact on MJO wave progressions. This may prove to be really important going into winter:

@40/70 Benchmark Something else to consider is the strong -IOD, it may alter the MJO wave progressions into this winter:

The models playing catch-up and getting stronger with the Niña as we get closer in time to fall….shades of the last 2 summers:

Yea, Dec, 2000 was cold, Jan and Feb torched then winter made a comeback of sorts in March, 2001. I was a young kid then but I remember the “blizzard” that never was early that month that shut NYC down for no reason. All the blizzard hype in the days prior for nothing

Well yea about the QBO last year lol I guess it helped as much as the low-solar, Siberian snowcover/SAI and arctic sea ice arguments the last several years