snowman19
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Everything posted by snowman19
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The BOM is very clearly running too warm so far but as you pointed out the JMA has also been cool biased. I still think my guesstimate of this event hitting a peak between +2.1C - +2.5C in November/December is reasonable and well within the realm of possibilities. I believe the JMA peak of +1.7C is too cool, but even so, it’s still not that far off my peak range guess
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This is showing a well coupled El Niño by September
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At this point, I think the only question is, does this Nino become super in November/December? This event going strong is inevitable, basically guaranteed now
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This El Niño continues to be extremely east-based and the region 1+2 warmth is record breaking
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I have more friends than you do accurate forecasts
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Just like it was impossible that we were weren’t going to get at least one historic KU bomb from the best pattern in history last December
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That makes zero sense. If the Nino doesn’t couple at all, then you are stuck with the same exact background system that’s been in place since 2019
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The people who want a change from what we’ve seen since 2019 better hope this Nino changes things up in a big way or we’ll be stuck in the same rut we’ve been in since then. If you want a change then you want the Nino to couple or it’s just more of the same. Funny how the same people who were cheering on an El Niño last winter don’t want it to happen now
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The 1982 super El Nino took until September to really take off
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What a difference a year makes….
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Years ago, region 3 was used instead of 3.4 to determine ENSO strength. Paul Roundy wrote about this on twitter back in April. I believe it was sometime in the 80’s? That 3.4 became the new metric
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The IOD is going to go positive, but not to the extent that was being shown in June
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Past events not withstanding, this one may stay east-based
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Up until “recently”, region 3 was the one used to measure the strength of an El Niño event. Some mets still use region 3 instead of 3.4 for that
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The choices are either staying east-based or basin-wide. The Modoki fantasies by some are pure wishcasts
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Yes, dynamical guidance is getting warmer with each run. IMO, this one is headed for a super peak sometime in December. Probably “low-end” super (+2.1C - +2.5C) but super none the less
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Here it comes:
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We’ll have to come back to this at the end of March and see if the theory worked out. I don’t really have an opinion either way. I’m curious though. However, I do remember the low arctic sea ice theory many were pushing several years ago (low arctic sea ice will lead to -NAM/-AO and -NAO). That failed horribly, I can’t even remember how many winter forecasts were assuming strong arctic and Atlantic blocking because of the record low arctic sea ice and it turned into a monumental, epic fail
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I would wait until the beginning of November to reasonably predict where the main tropical convective forcing will be. I don’t care what the seasonal models show in July for D, J, F, M. The forcing may completely change by October/November
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The ENSO (SST) configurations 57-58 and 65-66 looked Modoki by the start of winter. This one is extremely east-based right now
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It’s as much of a trash analog as 57-58, 65-66, 76-77, 02-03 and 09-10 are. A certain someone tweets literally everyday about how great those analogs are. If anyone really believes that this Niño is turning into a Modoki, they are either totally delusional or on crack
