snowman19

The amazing part is that it’s totally gone in less than 12 hours

You can set your watch to it, feels like it happens every late March anymore. There are growing signs showing up on guidance that after mid-month, a -AO/-NAO shows up, especially closer to the Equinox (3/20) on the other models. Hopefully that is dead wrong, no one wants to be backdoored with chilly, rainy crap weather at the end of March going into April

Yea, there are some hints in the super long range that a -AO/-NAO may develop (post 3/21), but that’s way too far out to speculate about yet and by then we will be past the Equinox and it would most likely result in a chilly, rainy backdoor pattern that no one will want at the end of March, IF it were to even happen. 3 weeks out, so we’ll see…. In the meantime, Happy Meteorological Spring everyone!! :-)

As you would say…voodoo

Get well soon

Dr. Lee is totally unimpressed with it, it’s not the same as a SSW split, the SPV very quickly recovers, it barely affects the NAM (AO) and it goes back to being severely positive right after:

The general early-mid (3/1 - 3/15) March pattern:

Why are you posting in the NYC forum or even care what goes on in here when you live in the Tug Hill Plateau of upstate NY?

We’ve also heard how deep winter is always coming from you since November. You are the Joe Bastardi, Jr of this place

Not buying the 2nd half of March/after mid-month “winter is coming back” hype going around on twitter. Maybe central and northern interior New England pull off something? But the 1st half of March, at least, looks to be cooked here. As far as hoping for some miracle comeback after 3/15…good luck with that. And as far as a mid-month “SSW” some are talking about, what’s being shown is not even a true SSW, if anything it’s a normal final warming event, which happens every spring. Even if there was a mid-March SSWE, what good does that even do? There is a lag and by then it’s the tail end of March/early April….too little too late for producing a snowstorm pattern here. If it results in blocking, it’s chilly rains and dreary chilly spring days when no one wants it anymore

March 13th, no -NAO blocking, -PNA, broad, positively tilted trough, maybe New England gets something out of it, yawn…..

1993 had a record, anomalous end of season true arctic outbreak plunging all the way down to the Gulf coast. The common themes with the March’s that featured major snowstorms/KU’s riding up the coast either had 1) a strong west-based -NAO/Greenland blocking or 2) a late season true arctic outbreak or in some cases both. Can there be a bunch of minor events that add up and give you a snowy March even without a favorable Atlantic (-NAO) or an arctic outbreak? Sure, and it certainly has happened. But regular March “cold” is alot different than Dec, Jan, Feb cold and by 3/15 just by climo alone, major snow events are very hard to come by at our latitude, thicknesses that gave you snow events back during those previous months don’t work in March. And yes, climo, sun angle and length of day are a very real problem in March, by the end of the month, there’s an August sun overhead

Did anyone else see that DT’s twitter account got banned? Lol I didn’t see it but I read that he supposedly went on a cursing tirade against someone who posted on one of his twitter feeds and wished cancer and death on them. That guy is a legit demented psychopath and I’m not saying that to be funny. Dude has some serious mental issues, I’ve seen some of his attacks on social media over the years and they are disturbing to say the least

Expectations need to be really tamed here….first and foremost it’s March after all and it gets very, very hard post 3/15 to get anything big snow-wise at this latitude. Second, the real “big” March snowstorms had strong west-based -NAO blocks….that’s not happening this year, they also usually had very anomalous true arctic outbreaks and not seeing signs of a true arctic outbreak here on the models….the Plains, Rockies and Upper Midwest maybe. I wouldn’t rule out some minor/moderate snow and/or ice events (obviously I-84 favored) but the upcoming setup definitely does not scream KU’s riding up the coast to me, that’s for sure

When you have a setup like we just had and you have goofball model runs showing snow in NYC, it’s obvious that you just completely and totally disregard them and go with reality, basic meteorology and physics. You don’t get midlevel low tracks like we just had along with the associated midlevel warm nose and have snow in New York City or anywhere close to New York City, anyone who believed that needs to go back to met school. Those models were on crack showing anything but just sleet and rain given those torched midlevel soundings. This was nothing more than a ping fest and an impressive ping/sleet fest at that I will admit, but still a sleet fest to rain none the less

If you want, I’ll throw a few pitchers of water on my driveway to freeze it up tonight and you can come over and slip and fall on it for a couple of hours. It should produce that good old deep winter feel for you. I’m right up in Rockland County, let me know…..

After it’s absolutely abysmal, pathetic performance with this last event and many others this winter….the GFS could show that the sun is going to rise tomorrow morning and I wouldn’t believe it. The fact that it’s ranking at #4 among the other models is very telling

Surprised by the magnitude of this ping fest. Got about 2 inches of sleet, no snow though, started as sleet from the beginning just after midnight then went over to freezing rain/rain at 9am. The sun is just starting to break through now :-)

Yea, let’s find the coldest outlier models and use those. Rockland isn’t getting 4 inches of snow or anything close to it with those midlevel low tracks and the associated midlevel warm nose, but you keep wishcasting that. Let’s just ignore this and the NAM huh: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=hrdps&region=neus&pkg=asnow&runtime=2022022406&fh=48 Edit: And the RGEM, ignore them all

The models are getting more aggressive with the SE ridge and western trough/-PNA as we move closer in time thanks to the MJO event Dr. Ventrice spoke of. Also still a very strong SPV, ++NAO/++AO to boot

And the models continue to get more aggressive with the midlevel warm nose. Good luck getting a snowstorm south of I-84 with those midlevel low tracks. Enjoy the ping fest to freezing rain/rain

This didn’t age well….https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=hrdps&region=neus&pkg=asnow&runtime=2022022406&fh=48

That warm tongue is almost certainly being under modeled right now, as is typical. I can easily see this event start as sleet instead of snow and go over to all rain south of I-84