snowman19

Obviously it can change between now and December, but as of today, this is a classic Eastern Pacific/“E-pattern” El Niño and it has been right from the start

The warmth in regions 1+2 and 3 is self-sustaining now. There’s a positive feedback (Bjerknes) loop in those regions now, it just keeps getting reinforced. It’s a classic Eastern Pacific/“E-pattern” Nino

The lag has to kick in. We just had basically 4 years of a La Niña state

Anything is possible. Let’s see where the main tropical convective forcing/Nino standing wave is located come November when the different feedbacks kick in

If the El Nino actually goes super, good luck sustaining a +PNA this winter. If that happens, STJ is going to be absolutely roaring and juiced to hell and is going to blast right through any +PNA pop and knock it right down. It would also support +EPO because the Aleutian low gets displaced well east of its normal position for weak and moderate Ninos. Can you still get a -NAO/-AO? Sure. 97-98 actually had a -NAO/-NAM but all it did was bring down and trap PAC maritime air

Look at the international average of models for December in their disco. They have it at +2.2C in December. The POAMA is overdone

BOM’s August 1st update has the El Niño peaking at +2.2C in December. Has the +IOD peaking at +1.2C in October then slowly falling: http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/index.shtml

What does the PAC side look like?

The new CANSIPS now has a super El Niño:

Very believable that we are in a strong El Niño by 9/1 now. At this point strong is inevitable and IMO so is super. The question is how “super” does it go by December? IMO there is a limit….definitely weaker than 15-16 and 97-98 but still super in the end none the less…..

Do I think the +2.9C the new POAMA run for December is showing is overdone? Yes and I’ve said that a few times now. However I absolutely do think it goes super in December and my guess for a peak is still +2.1C - +2.5C

Given that we are about to start August with a daily reading of +1.3C, I don’t think it reaching or surpassing strong status by 8/31 is that far fetched….

How anyone in their right mind could take this clown seriously is beyond me. He’s hyping 57-58, 65-66, 76-77, 02-03 and 09-10 as his analogs, saying it’s going to become a Modoki and posting a model run showing a super El Niño. “Top 5 event!” There’s no such thing as a super Modoki El Nino. How do people pay to read this utter garbage??

The strong/super El Niño along with the +IOD is very likely to cause a major change in the dominant tropical convective forcing/MJO. As @bluewave pointed out, you can already see the SST and forcing changes showing up. Any change would lead to a much different outcome than the stagnant WPAC forcing we’ve seen since 2019….

Say goodbye to the La Niña like state and forcing we’ve seen for the last 3+ years in the WPAC:

The new update from Skywatch India on the IOD and ENSO….They have a real healthy +IOD forming and they have the El Niño (region 3.4) going Super and peaking at +2.1C in December:

You have absolutely no idea what you’re talking about. Please stop. The subsurface just under regions 1+2 and 3 is over +6C. You have been saying these regions are going to fall apart since the end of March and posting the wretched CFS over and over. 5 months in a row now. Give it up. You’re wishcasting

You are a broken record. You have been saying this literally since March. 5 months now. Boy who cried wolf

This event has built entirely from the east (regions 1+2 and 3) with DWKWs breaking at the South American coast. It may very well end up being one of, if not the most east-based event on record. Once the -SOI/WWBs get going in earnest, I think we will see very rapid warming in 3.4. Like you said, +1.1C at the end of July is already very impressive and the warming still has yet to really take off. When the developing +IOD kicks in next month, it’s going to constructively interfere and that’s when I think things start to go bonkers with the warming

Adios -PMM/-PDO….El Nino forcing the change

@bluewave A +IOD is very clearly developing now

Once the +IOD gets going (should be next month) I think this really takes off and we see good atmospheric coupling/-SOI/WWBs/DWKWs along with the associated warming and feedbacks

The POAMA took a dump on this one. Much too warm. I think the Euro ends up being the closest to reality with a “low-end” super Nino peak around December. The warm water volume we have isn’t going to be denied