snowman19

Right. Like Paul Roundy pointed out, up until the end of November, we had weak WWBs the entire event which reduced the normal wind evaporation cooling as they went by….this lead to a much warmer and expansive warm pool, which this latest massive WWB has pushed east of the dateline. The DWKW was no slouch either. At this point I’d say a trimonthly ONI of AT LEAST +1.9C is almost a certainty and a super peak has become a very real possibility….more so than at any other point in this event. It all depends on what happens with the follow up WWBs and region 3.4 SSTs over the next month

That area of +31C east of the dateline is very significant as is the OHC uptick. Big reservoir of very warm subsurface water available to warm the 3.4 SSTs further as we go into December. Looks like the DWKW/WWB response and rewarming in region 1+2 is starting to happen now as the kelvin wave starts to surface

The fact that he said super is not happening means it definitely is now. The kiss of death has spoken lol Anyway, you and I actually aren’t that far apart in our trimonthly ONI guesses. You think it’s going to be +1.9C. I think it’s going to be around +2.2C. We have another month to watch it, the peak should be in the end of December/early January time frame

The RMM charts are going to be sketchy at best. The El Nino standing wave/low frequency forcing has taken over. This is a clear sign that it is very strong/strengthening and is completely dominating the tropical convective forcing right now. There is some Pacific MJO activity which is constructively interfering with the Nino and serving to strengthen it further (warming and coupling). This is also what is going to help drive the upcoming flip to a +AAM regime starting around the end of the 1st week of next month

Even if the weak SPV forecasts are correct, it would have to get weak and downwell into the lowest part of the stratosphere and couple with the troposphere to produce the desired result. A +AAM regime setting up would definitely support a Nino response on the PAC side

Right. Just like your declaration a couple of weeks ago that the Nino was rapidly weakening and falling apart lol

Huge test coming up….Don S @donsutherland1 mentioned this last night…we are about to see a big +AAM spike (Nino forcing) coming up at the end of the 1st week of December as the Pacific MJO wave constructively interferes with the El Niño…Do we see a “classic” Nino December response thereafter once the AAM flips positive?

Devil’s advocate, it hasn’t happened yet. Given how horrible the models were last winter, why are we so sure there’s actually going to be this huge west-based -NAO December? Could this not completely fall apart? I mean, it appeared out of nowhere, could it not disappear as we get closer? Would anyone actually be shocked if it did? The EPS isn’t anything like what it used to be. It and the other models have been flip flopping around like fish out of water. I’d be real careful saying a -NAO December is a forgone conclusion given the abysmal performance of the ensembles over the last few winters. They are all “consistently showing it” until they are not. A lot of people have gotten burned doing this over and over again @brooklynwx99 I NEVER said throw it out. You completely and totally missed my point. Omg it’s impossible here sometimes

TBH things have been going against my prediction for months and months. Everyone else points them out for me so I really didn’t think it was necessary to repeat them. If that’s how I sounded then that wasn’t my intention but if I did nothing but change my forecast, I would look like a fool. I thought it was better to stick to my guns and not waver in what I’ve always thought the ultimate outcome would be. My forecast has been the outlier on here and I’m sure it still is. Did it drop today? Yes of course and I posted that but IMO this is noise, like what has been going on for awhile with this event

I’m not altering my forecast based on day to day changes, rises, falls, if I did that, I would have changed it 20 times already since August. So far, people have declared this Nino dead, said it peaked already, it’s weakening, never going to warm above +2C, the OHC was supposedly dead, no more warming, done. The +IOD was also declared dead, it’s bootleg, it’s not going to be a top event. The warm pool wasn’t going to migrate either nor was the WPAC going to cool yet here we are. It’s noise. We need to look at the grand scheme of things, like you said we still have a month to go here with ENSO and I see absolutely no reason to change my forecast. I’m confident it’s going to warm further. This event means business:

Cyclonicwx is +2.12 OISST in region 3.4. Region 3 is still at +2.3C. IMO this is just a brief daily drop. Given what is going on now with the constructive MJO interference, which will lead to more WWB/downwelling activity, warm pool (+31C) migration into 3.4, big uptick in the OHC, I fully expect more warming in both the 3.4 and 3 regions. My guess is we top out at a +2.4C or +2.5C reading for this event. We still have awhile to go

The warming in both regions 3 and 3.4 has been extremely impressive as has this rise in OHC, which I thought would happen by late this month. I think we may very well see a weekly reading of +2.1C in region 3.4 from the CPC Monday. Also starting to think there’s a chance at a +2.5C weekly reading at some point next month. More WWBs/warming/downwelling activity to come as this current Pacific MJO constructively interferes with the Nino, as I pointed out earlier @Terpeast If this Nino tops out at +1.9C or +2.2C, is that really going to make that huge of a difference? We are talking a difference of +0.3 at that point. I mean the atmosphere isn’t going to have a massively different reaction between a high-end strong peak and a low-end super peak. It’s going to react to the big change in the global heat budget and SSTs we are seeing with the migration of the warm pool

More proof that this El Niño is about to strengthen even more….the Bjerknes feedback loop is intensifying further, Walker cell weakening, El Niño standing wave/low frequency forcing taking over. This Pacific MJO pulse is going to constructively interfere with the El Niño and cause more WWBs/DWKW activity. I had said we may see a +2.4C reading on the weeklies next month…now I question whether or not we may see a +2.5C reading on one of the weeklies in December, we would only be talking a +0.3 warming at this point since Nino 3.4 is +2.2C right now. The subsurface and surface warming continues, SOI continues to be strongly negative. Here is a very good explanation: @bluewave

IMO it hits over +2.4C on the dailies (possibly the weeklies) sometime in December. Given how everything is transpiring, I don’t think a late December/January peak with an ONI of +2.1C to +2.3C is that far fetched

The (finally) WPAC cooling showing up is very notable. More warming to come, we have not seen the peak yet. Warm pool east of the dateline, record WWB/DWKW, which has yet to surface, major subsurface warming and the OHC going up. Bjerknes feedback is very clearly entrenched and the SOI has fallen to almost -20 again. With very likely more WWB/s to come mid-late December, I stand by my trimonthly ONI super peak. This event will not be as strong as 97-98 or 15-16 obviously. What that ultimately means for the winter’s sensible weather is anyone’s guess at this point. I will say this…background AGW or not, the migration of the warm pool and SSTs above +2C in regions 3.4 and 3 is going to dramatically alter the global heat budget and there will be a very strong atmospheric response to this; as far as that goes, I can say with a lot of confidence, I have no doubt

Not sure exactly what this attack on me is about? I’ve never once uttered a bad word about you on here as long as I’ve been a member. If you’ve been reading my posts, I’ve been all in on a very good February. And I’ll take Eric Webb’s word any day over weenie Mets Steve D, Margavage, Bastardi, Margusity or Pann. Cosgrove is now starting to fit right into that fold too

So, like you said, applying that logic, 72-73 was not a super El Niño then. If we change it and now go by 5 consecutive months instead of the trimonthly ONI average peak like we did in the ENSO guesstimate forecast contest, then no one will be right. Why would we change this now? So by this logic, even if this Nino goes super in the ONI (trimonthly) sense, people can say it was wrong anyway. That’s insane, why wasn’t this the standard we all agreed on back months ago when we did that contest? Seems to me there’s a very clear agenda here @brooklynwx99 I get it, so even if this event goes trimonthly super ONI, you are going to come back and say it really wasn’t a super El Niño and doesn’t matter even though you agreed on the ONI being the standard back when we did the guesstimate contest. “It wasn’t super for 5 months!!” Loophole. This of the equivalent of reshuffling the deck at the end of the game

The ONI 3 consecutive month, trimonthly has always been and still is (as far as I know) the standard, it’s what we based our forecast guesses on….

Very impressive, rapid subsurface warming (WWB, DWKW): Comparison of a Nino/+IOD forced pattern vs. Niña/-IOD:

*3 months (trimonthly)

I’m not talking about OLR/-VP convective forcing. I’m speaking of shear strength in the oceanic sense, not atmospheric. To even argue to the contrary is asinine

Steve D lol Just as bad as Margavage, Pann, Bastardi and Margusity. While it’s unlikely that 1+2 goes back up to +3C, when the KW surfaces in a couple of weeks, it very likely warms up again. And this Nino is anything but weak, besides the SSTs and subsurface, WWB, DWKW, the warm pool is now east of the dateline, something that only happens in the strongest events. This one is strong at the very least