snowman19

I’m not talking about OLR/-VP convective forcing. I’m speaking of shear strength in the oceanic sense, not atmospheric. To even argue to the contrary is asinine

Steve D lol Just as bad as Margavage, Pann, Bastardi and Margusity. While it’s unlikely that 1+2 goes back up to +3C, when the KW surfaces in a couple of weeks, it very likely warms up again. And this Nino is anything but weak, besides the SSTs and subsurface, WWB, DWKW, the warm pool is now east of the dateline, something that only happens in the strongest events. This one is strong at the very least

It’s possible this one is a NDJ ONI peak like a few models have been suggesting. We’ll see

More warming to come and this El Niño has very clearly not peaked yet. Again, the peak probably doesn’t happen until late December or January. I don’t think we are done with the WWBs yet, the next one/ones are not going to be as strong as this one is though. I would also not discount region 1+2 warming again once this KW surfaces off the SA coast. The warm pool is now completely east of the dateline. Per Paul Roundy: “The extent of warm water higher than 31C is higher east of the dateline today than in any historic event. In part, it's because this El Niño was associated with weaker initial WWBs (which cool the ocean locally due to evaporation). That meant that this WWB had more warm water to work with.” Big subsurface warming/DWKW:

Next week is extremely likely to feature the 1st over +2.0C weekly reading for 3.4 from the CPC. I was off by a couple of weeks, I thought that would happen by mid-month but it’s still coming nonetheless. Another spike in the ++IOD this week, it peaked in late October….still a top tier very strong event. Probably goes to neutral come late January. When you figure the atmospheric lag in, it should continue to have an effect on the long wave global pattern into the end of winter even if it goes neutral oceanically at the end of January

Fits the strong/super El Niño/+IOD evolution very very well: @WxUSAF:

A true CP/Modoki wouldn’t have region 3 this warm. It’s very likely 1+2 warms back up when the KW resurfaces off the South American coast. The warm pool is now completely east of the dateline and is continuing to get pushed further east by the WWB. My forecast of a super ONI with a late December/January peak stands

@bluewave

IMO it peaks late December/January. I don’t think an ONI of +2.1C - +2.3C is far fetched, especially given what is going on right now with the WWB, DWKW, push eastward of the warm water pool east of the dateline. Given the increase in warm water volume and sea level anomalies since the tail end of October, a rather big jump in warming is well within the realm of possibilities over the next month or so

Given the huge eastward push of the warm pool from the very strong WWB and the robust DWKW activity, consistent with high-end strong/super Nino’s, a +2.3C reading would not surprise me at all. All we can do is watch from here on out

We are a stone’s throw away from +2C right now (+1.97C). My guess is within the next week we are over that on the dailies

The warm pool is now continuing to push east of the dateline, WPAC cooling. I have no doubt this goes super ONI probably not by much, my guesstimate stands….(+2.1C - +2.3C Nino 3.4).

Following the Nino script….here comes the raging STJ

You won’t hear that from me, I fully expect the bottom to drop out in February. So far, this Nino is following the strong El Niño/+IOD “script” to a tee….I expect mid-late December to go up substantially, probably a drop early January then the mid-late January thaw, February drop then rise again for early-mid March @griteater My forecast stands….its going super

Right on time, here it comes:

The warm pool has moved east of the dateline now. I’m at a loss for words that people actually think this Nino already peaked and is weakening, you have a massive WWB and DWKW continuing. Someone/someones are going to botch this Nino forecast very, very badly. The camps on this are worlds and I mean worlds apart