snowman19

Here’s the new JMA, showing a super El Niño

The new C3S run is out

You don’t think ENSO events are easier to predict than forcing? While not an exact science, aside from the ultimate peak, it’s a lot easier to predict Nina’s and Nino’s months ahead

Once again, it is not even worth looking at model projected forcing 4+ months from now. This has been said ad nauseam. I don’t care what it shows for forcing, east-based, west-based, central-based. Once again, let’s see where the forcing is in November. Remember the great forcing the models were showing at this point in time for the 19-20 winter???

IMO, the main driver this winter will be the (possible) super El Niño and the associated forcing with it. The +IOD is also going to play into that. Not to say things like solar/PDO/The Hunga Tonga eruption/QBO/AMO aren’t going to have some say too but I think the main show is going to be ENSO. I don’t buy into the October Siberian snowcover/SAI and arctic sea ice craze with Judah Cohen anymore after the utter debacle of the last 15+ years

I’d wait until November to give the El Nino and +IOD a chance to really get going, then see where we are at with the forcing at that point

The thing that’s certain at this point is that it’s not becoming a Modoki. Mr. Bastardi can tweet 100 more times between now and December that it’s going to turn into a Modoki and it’s not going to change that fact

Agreed and just my opinion….I think we are in a strong El Niño come September .

Ummmmm I guess you missed the point….the point being that it’s caving to the warmer guidance. And yes the model that’s been dropping regions 1+2 and 3 for the last 5 months is trash

Speaking in definitive absolutes about something 4 months away is probably a bad idea

It’s getting harder to ignore the new models getting stronger with the peak at this point. The spring barrier is long gone

The new Euro run keeps region 1+2 just below +3.0C through December, also has region 3 at +2.7C through December while warming region 3.4 up to +2.3C in the same time frame. Does it actually work out like that? Who knows…

The epic, monumental fail by the CFS since March of insisting on dropping regions 1+2 and 3 like a rock continues…..

IMO once the +IOD really gets going, the WPAC forcing and SST configuration is going to look way different than it does right now

IMO the +IOD alters the WPAC. I can buy a -AO/-NAO. Ok, fine. But if there’s actually a +2.3C super Nino, I have a very hard time believing a PAC like that…-EPO/-WPO/+PNA with a super Nino in place? I think not. Strong/Super El Nino very strongly favors a +EPO with a well east displaced Aleutian Low and a raging, epic STJ crashing into the west coast isn’t going to allow a +PNA to sustain itself, as soon as one (+PNA) pops up, it’s going to get knocked right back down by the STJ/El Nino

I can absolutely see a +2.3C peak come December, been saying that for awhile now. Completely believable. Also, no surprise that it’s showing region 1+2 staying close to +3C through December. The subsurface and positive (Bjerknes) feedback going on there are going to keep that ridiculous warmth going

How do you or anyone else for that matter know exactly what the WPAC is going to look come December and thereafter? Besides the Nino, the developing +IOD is also going to alter the WPAC SSTs and forcing. To say that if this Nino becomes super (looks very likely now) that it’s definitely not going to have the same bite or behave as other past super El Niños this winter is disingenuous at best. Unless some people are psychic and clairvoyant and know exactly what is going to happen 4, 5, 6, 7 months from now. It’s the beginning of August and things can and will change, possibly dramatically

It’s actually notably warmer than the last run, has a solid super peak (looks around +2.3C) in December

The RONI will be an excuse by some people on the east coast to predict a very cold and very snowy winter even if this El Nino goes super (over +2.0C) in late fall/beginning of winter. “Don’t worry that the Nino is peaking at +2.2C, it means nothing. The RONI is lower and weaker, it’s only showing a strong El Niño so it will not behave anything at all like a super Nino, it’s going to behave like a strong to high-end moderate Nino. The RONI is way more important, just look at that, don’t let that +2.2C super peak fool you”

As east-based as they come…..

Back in 97-98 there was actually a secondary area of low frequency forcing in region 1+2 during the winter. Whether or not we see dual areas of forcing this winter remains to be seen but a definite possibility