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snowman19

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Everything posted by snowman19

  1. snowman19
    Go crawl back under your rock you clueless, half-wit troll. You have no idea what you’re even talking about. Useless member
  2. snowman19
  3. snowman19
    This El Niño isn’t going to go over +2.0C and not be a real prominent driver IMO. There is an atmospheric lag right now because we are just getting out of a semipermanent 4 year in a row La Niña state. We aren’t just going to flip a switch. I think by November/December, there will be no question whatsoever that El Niño is going to be a very major factor this coming winter
  4. snowman19
  5. snowman19
    All the real major subsurface warmth is under 1+2, 3 and the eastern part of 3.4
  6. snowman19
    Let’s see where the forcing is come November
  7. snowman19
    Obviously it can change between now and December, but as of today, this is a classic Eastern Pacific/“E-pattern” El Niño and it has been right from the start
  8. snowman19
    The warmth in regions 1+2 and 3 is self-sustaining now. There’s a positive feedback (Bjerknes) loop in those regions now, it just keeps getting reinforced. It’s a classic Eastern Pacific/“E-pattern” Nino
  9. snowman19
  10. snowman19
    The lag has to kick in. We just had basically 4 years of a La Niña state
  11. snowman19
    Anything is possible. Let’s see where the main tropical convective forcing/Nino standing wave is located come November when the different feedbacks kick in
  12. snowman19
    If the El Nino actually goes super, good luck sustaining a +PNA this winter. If that happens, STJ is going to be absolutely roaring and juiced to hell and is going to blast right through any +PNA pop and knock it right down. It would also support +EPO because the Aleutian low gets displaced well east of its normal position for weak and moderate Ninos. Can you still get a -NAO/-AO? Sure. 97-98 actually had a -NAO/-NAM but all it did was bring down and trap PAC maritime air
  13. snowman19
    Look at the international average of models for December in their disco. They have it at +2.2C in December. The POAMA is overdone
  14. snowman19
    BOM’s August 1st update has the El Niño peaking at +2.2C in December. Has the +IOD peaking at +1.2C in October then slowly falling: http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/index.shtml
  15. snowman19
    What does the PAC side look like?
  16. snowman19
    The new CANSIPS now has a super El Niño:
  17. snowman19
    Very believable that we are in a strong El Niño by 9/1 now. At this point strong is inevitable and IMO so is super. The question is how “super” does it go by December? IMO there is a limit….definitely weaker than 15-16 and 97-98 but still super in the end none the less…..
  18. snowman19
    Do I think the +2.9C the new POAMA run for December is showing is overdone? Yes and I’ve said that a few times now. However I absolutely do think it goes super in December and my guess for a peak is still +2.1C - +2.5C
  19. snowman19
    Given that we are about to start August with a daily reading of +1.3C, I don’t think it reaching or surpassing strong status by 8/31 is that far fetched….
  20. snowman19
    How anyone in their right mind could take this clown seriously is beyond me. He’s hyping 57-58, 65-66, 76-77, 02-03 and 09-10 as his analogs, saying it’s going to become a Modoki and posting a model run showing a super El Niño. “Top 5 event!” There’s no such thing as a super Modoki El Nino. How do people pay to read this utter garbage??
  21. snowman19
    The strong/super El Niño along with the +IOD is very likely to cause a major change in the dominant tropical convective forcing/MJO. As @bluewave pointed out, you can already see the SST and forcing changes showing up. Any change would lead to a much different outcome than the stagnant WPAC forcing we’ve seen since 2019….
  22. snowman19
    Say goodbye to the La Niña like state and forcing we’ve seen for the last 3+ years in the WPAC:
  23. snowman19
    The new update from Skywatch India on the IOD and ENSO….They have a real healthy +IOD forming and they have the El Niño (region 3.4) going Super and peaking at +2.1C in December:
  24. snowman19
    You have absolutely no idea what you’re talking about. Please stop. The subsurface just under regions 1+2 and 3 is over +6C. You have been saying these regions are going to fall apart since the end of March and posting the wretched CFS over and over. 5 months in a row now. Give it up. You’re wishcasting
  25. snowman19
    You are a broken record. You have been saying this literally since March. 5 months now. Boy who cried wolf
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