snowman19

Next week is extremely likely to feature the 1st over +2.0C weekly reading for 3.4 from the CPC. I was off by a couple of weeks, I thought that would happen by mid-month but it’s still coming nonetheless. Another spike in the ++IOD this week, it peaked in late October….still a top tier very strong event. Probably goes to neutral come late January. When you figure the atmospheric lag in, it should continue to have an effect on the long wave global pattern into the end of winter even if it goes neutral oceanically at the end of January

Fits the strong/super El Niño/+IOD evolution very very well: @WxUSAF:

A true CP/Modoki wouldn’t have region 3 this warm. It’s very likely 1+2 warms back up when the KW resurfaces off the South American coast. The warm pool is now completely east of the dateline and is continuing to get pushed further east by the WWB. My forecast of a super ONI with a late December/January peak stands

@bluewave

IMO it peaks late December/January. I don’t think an ONI of +2.1C - +2.3C is far fetched, especially given what is going on right now with the WWB, DWKW, push eastward of the warm water pool east of the dateline. Given the increase in warm water volume and sea level anomalies since the tail end of October, a rather big jump in warming is well within the realm of possibilities over the next month or so

Given the huge eastward push of the warm pool from the very strong WWB and the robust DWKW activity, consistent with high-end strong/super Nino’s, a +2.3C reading would not surprise me at all. All we can do is watch from here on out

We are a stone’s throw away from +2C right now (+1.97C). My guess is within the next week we are over that on the dailies

The warm pool is now continuing to push east of the dateline, WPAC cooling. I have no doubt this goes super ONI probably not by much, my guesstimate stands….(+2.1C - +2.3C Nino 3.4).

Following the Nino script….here comes the raging STJ

You won’t hear that from me, I fully expect the bottom to drop out in February. So far, this Nino is following the strong El Niño/+IOD “script” to a tee….I expect mid-late December to go up substantially, probably a drop early January then the mid-late January thaw, February drop then rise again for early-mid March @griteater My forecast stands….its going super

Right on time, here it comes:

The warm pool has moved east of the dateline now. I’m at a loss for words that people actually think this Nino already peaked and is weakening, you have a massive WWB and DWKW continuing. Someone/someones are going to botch this Nino forecast very, very badly. The camps on this are worlds and I mean worlds apart

The WCS 3.4 data is matching up perfectly with the NWS CPC data. It was also +1.8C on the Monday update. That is definitely the official OISST measurement, the CPC isn’t going to publish bogus info

As of yesterday on WCS the region 3.4 OISST warmed to +1.88C, warmed +0.2 in the last week. This WWB event according to Paul is massive and the DWKW is record breaking. There is also very substantial warming of the WPAC. The trade winds look not only to die but a trade wind reversal appears to be in the works: