snowman19
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Everything posted by snowman19
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From HM:
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No one knows where the main forcing will be this winter or should be at this point, way, way too early for that. Maybe it will be further west, maybe it will be east. Look again in the fall
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Only in Joe Bastardi delusional wishcasting weenie world does a Modoki look likely. IMO east-based is the most likely outcome with basin-wide the 2nd most likely
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In other news you have Joe Bastardi tweeting 10 times a day that the El Nino is turning into a full fledged Modoki and it’s going to be the coldest and snowiest winter ever in east coast history. Always a real plus to have that kiss of death on your side [emoji23][emoji23][emoji23][emoji23]
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Right! Let’s find the coldest and snowiest looking 500mb maps we can find for Jan, Feb, Mar and post them on 7/11!!!! Oh and images of -NAO/-AO, let’s post those too!!! Maybe we can find some rouge Chinese model showing a massive SSWE in December and we can post that in here as well!!
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It’s not a hard concept, well maybe for the challenged people, like yourself. It’s called stick to the topic, which is clearly “El Nino” in here. If you want to wishcast about winter 500mb patterns and high latitude blocking, and -NAO’s go do that in a winter thread
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Could someone please start a 2023-24 winter thread so we can stop posting winter pattern fantasy maps from 6, 7, 8 months from now in a dedicated El Niño thread?
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If the Euro is correct, the real big warming is ASOND
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Here comes the MJO event people were talking about
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If nothing else, we are witnessing history. If this becomes super (which I expect), it is probably a once in a 100 year, extremely rare event and we will never see a Nino develop in this way again in our lifetimes. Breaking all the “rules”. It showed us a completely alternative way to develop a very strong El Niño that we definitely are not traditionally accustomed to….
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Here comes the MJO wave that’s really going to start kicking this Nino into overdrive later on this month
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Wow!
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You got it
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Very confident region 3.4 is over +2.0C on the weeklies late November and December
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IMO, I think it gets stronger than that, but I do agree that it peaks in December. I think it strengthens right into December when the final peak happens
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I suppose anything is possible, but if we see I peak of over +2.0C come November/December (and I’m becoming increasingly confident that we will), I can’t imagine this event not behaving like a canonical El Niño. All we can do is wait and see
