snowman19

Agreed, you can’t trust the NAM at 84 hrs. So far, the RGEM went east, the GFS went way east, the ICON didn’t look impressive up to 45hrs when it stopped, the 6z op Euro/EPS moved east. The RGEM moving east makes me think the CMC is about to do the same. If I had to guess, gun to my head, the Euro and EPS go east later

It isn’t too often that the twin forks, Montauk Point and Fishers Island stay all snow and places like Orange, Rockland, Passaic still get heavy snow out of it like the Euro is showing, that would be an extremely unusual storm should that actually happen

The Ukie is a big eastern LI, eastern NE hit. Almost nothing NW of NYC

I agree, I think this has very sharp cutoff/subsidence on the NW side written all over it. Still would not be surprised to ultimately see this an eastern LI/eastern NE bomb. Something like what the CMC just showed would not surprise me

Assuming the new Euro doesn’t start backing down then yea, we are probably starting to see a full GFS cave to its solution….I’d like to see what the CMC and Ukie do next like you said….don’t really care about the ICON, it ends up bowing to consensus just before an event anyway…..

The GEFS got even more aggressive with the -PNA in early February, dropping it to below -4

Agree, and what we just saw from the 18z GFS is the most likely “bad” outcome for our area, not a runner/cutter. This one is either a big hit or too far east and an eastern New England hit, I don’t care what the twitterologists are saying, this one isn’t a hugger, runner or cutter, the flow is too fast and any PNA correction is going to push it further offshore with the resulting downstream trough adjustment

In my opinion this one is for eastern LI and eastern NE. The CMC is overamped, which it likes to do at this range. I think the risk here is OTS not hugger or runner. I would not be at all surprised to see this trend east over the next few days

Delicate for sure. To get a major snowstorm this weekend will be the definition of a thread the needle to say the least. If I had to guess I think this becomes an eastern Long Island, eastern New England event. Everything would have to come together absolutely perfect to give DC - BOS a major snowstorm, the setup (+AO, +NAO, no 50/50 low, ripping fast flow) is not a good one. The +PNA and WAR need to be just perfect in tandem with each other to avoid this going OTS

I think that’s the least likely possibility. If anything the threat is OTS not inland runner/cutter IMO

What are you thinking? The threat is OTS not inland runner with this storm IMO. The flow is still very fast and a lot will depend on the +PNA ridge strength and position

It has zilch for snow, it’s actually gotten worse aloft for anything here. We’ll see what happens at 0z but for now it’s the CMC vs the world, no other model is even remotely close to what it just showed

The UKMET is not even in the same universe as the CMC

Yep. This is 100% the type of winter that will go ice cold mid - late March and all of April and make early spring miserable

The ensembles look very warm right after 2/1. The SE ridge is coming back with a vengeance next month and this time, there will be no -NAO/-AO to tame it like there was during the last RNA period we had in December. Also, the models have doubled down on a very strong SPV in February

People can talk shit about the Euro not being good anymore all they want, but when it consistently shows miss after miss that’s a huge red flag IMO

Yea, nothing supports a SSWE right now. We are literally a 180 degree opposite of last winter when we had that major SSW occur. The SPV looks like it will be extremely strong and coupled come early - mid February. And the models are actually getting more aggressive with the -PNA and +AO/+NAO

There are big questions with next weekend that will limit what happens. The good is that the pattern change on the PAC side will be underway, we usually see storms at the end of established patterns. The other good is the cold that will be in place although it will be starting to relax some at that point but still cold. The issues….still fast flow, no -NAO block, no 50/50 low. The big question is the +PNA ridge….is the GFS actually correct 7 days out with its position and strength? That will greatly affect the downstream trough in the east. If the trough is positively tilted we have issues. If the GFS is wrong about the ridge in the west and the trough doesn’t go negative at the right time it all falls apart like the Euro. Is the GFS handling the northern and southern stream waves correctly? We have a lot to watch over the next week and a lot can change, people need to realize that

Jackpotted 7 days out in winter 21/22…what could possibly go wrong? I’m sure it will look exactly like that next Saturday lol

There is nothing to indicate a major SSW is coming. We’re still waiting for the massive SSWE that wxtwitter and JB said was going to happen back at the beginning of this month…….

Here comes wxtwitter proclaiming that “it’s only going to be warm in the east at 500mb in February. I’m surprised the “it’s only going to be warm aloft” tweets started so early, I figured it would have waited until next week. JB trained them well lol

Don’t worry, JB is predicting a severely cold and snowy February. At least we have that good omen on our side…..

The CANSIPS is also a massive torch like the weeklies. This is about as strong a pattern signal as you will see:

Yea, keep thinking deep winter is coming in February lol You’re going to be in short sleeves soon my dude

Shorter wavelengths aren’t going to matter with what the weeklies show if they are correct. If what they are showing actually happens, it will be a torch, there’s no way to sugar coat it, +EPO, -PNA, +NAO, +AO and a raging strong SPV, SE ridge on roids, is a torch here no matter what the wavelengths are in February