snowman19

Again, wait until November and see where we are at. These seasonal models are initializing with the current forcing and just assuming it doesn’t move and keeping it there….very unlikely. See Griteater’s post about the Nino base state shown on that run being east of 15-16, yet it’s showing 14-15 forcing? It’s showing forcing west of even 15-16. I think not. Also, it’s showing a super El Niño, peaking in December, with an absolutely raging, epic STJ crashing into the west coast, what do you think that is going to do to any +PNA that pops up? It’s going to crash into it and knock it right back down. You aren’t going to be able to sustain +PNA. And an Aleutian low in a weak Nino/-EPO position? Color me skeptical. As far as the NAO/AO…that’s possible, but the PAC side is very suspect IMO. Let’s revisit this in November when the Nino gets more established and the seasonal wavelength changes and feedbacks kick in

The BOM is obviously more conservative than the CPC lol However, they do show the forecasted healthy +IOD and also show the Nino peaking at a trimonthly ONI average of +2.2C

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/mjoupdate.pdf

The -SOI is responding, a clear atmospheric response to the strengthening Nino Walker circulation and good coupling. It’s also completely drowning out and suppressing the IO and Maritime Continent low frequency MJO forcing as you can read in that CPC discussion. The Nino forcing has overtaken. Make no mistake about it, it’s game time for this Nino

[mention=564]bluewave[/mention] [mention=2064]griteater[/mention] [mention=13726]so_whats_happening[/mention] It’s funny you guys mention this. The latest update from the CPC…El Nino forcing has taken over. The low frequency forcing over the eastern IO and Maritime Continent getting suppressed and squashed out from the Nino signal, the rapidly strengthening +IOD, (causing subsidence there) also contributing to this. You can say goodbye to the Niña like MJO forcing. It’s the El Niño show from here on out. Here is the disco: https://x.com/selwyyyyn/status/1698988453873246281?s=46&t=NChJQK9_PUjA1K7D2SMojw

The end of the month into October strengthening period looks good IMO, I believe the MJO push into phases 7, 8 happens, then I think we probably get one more in November and that’s it. The SOI is responding with a run of significant negative values now, showing that this Nino is coupling well. I’m still confident in a region 3.4 trimonthly (NDJ) super peak. It also looks like the region 1+2 cooling has leveled off to just below +3.0C. The models did a good job so far showing this and they keep it at the current level through January. That region most likely has peaked, region 3 is still warming, already at super status. SOI: https://x.com/jnmet/status/1699431578659614884?s=46&t=NChJQK9_PUjA1K7D2SMojw

Before you decide to spike the ball and act like a dick, I’d wait to see the final result. But I guess you have it figured out already like you did last winter with the epic pattern. It could very well be a super El Niño when you average out the 3 consecutive months @brooklynwx99 Here you go…new Euro plumes….still shows a super El Niño: https://x.com/mario___ramirez/status/1699126469518074024?s=46&t=NChJQK9_PUjA1K7D2SMojw

It looks like the new Euro does get it above +2.0C for a month or two, it’s not showing 3 consecutive months above +2 anymore

I could absolutely see this month ending at +1.9C on the weeklies, completely believable

The models actually showed this region 1+2 drop. They get it down just below +3.0C and keep it there through January, so it’s not really surprising. Also, none of the models show an October peak, they all peak it between November/December

@Gawx The CPC weekly update has 3.4 up to +1.6C and it’s only 9/5….maybe the models showing September getting up to +1.9C aren’t so crazy… https://x.com/mario___ramirez/status/1699078869762888163?s=46&t=NChJQK9_PUjA1K7D2SMojw

Not surprised. At this point, I think a +2 or higher OHC come November is becoming very, very likely given what is projected to occur later on this month

@Gawx New record for this Nino event in the daily region 3.4 value….up to over +1.6C on both OISST and CRW https://cyclonicwx.com/data/sst/ssta_graph_nino34.png https://cyclonicwx.com/data/sst/crw_ssta_graph_nino34.png

If you want an end to the La Niña like forcing and get a cooling WPAC this is the way to do it (possible super El Niño and healthy +IOD for several months, -SOI, MJO waves propagating into the Pacific). All the models show this Nino feeding back and coupling very well atmospherically, evidenced by the raging STJ being shown on the seasonal models. The models also show that the Nino isn’t going to be in a hurry to decay once it peaks around December. They don’t show the IOD going back to neutral until January. The forcing response may take a bit, assuming the OLR plots are correct, which they probably are, and this MJO advances into the PAC, a big warming in the ENSO regions and OHC should come late this month into October with the wave stomping out the trade winds and causing a WWB/DWKW behind it. It’s going to be interesting to say the least

The OLR plots are showing the MJO moving into the PAC (phases 7 and 8) after 9/20. If correct, it’s going to trigger a WWB/DWKW and that is when we should see a substantial warming. Also expecting the OHC to continue rising through November, as is climo for that https://x.com/piw44/status/1698737106275955143?s=46&t=NChJQK9_PUjA1K7D2SMojw

I’m wondering if the strengthening +IOD (rapid warming of the western Indian Ocean, rapid cooling around Indonesia along with what should be associated subsidence in that region will finally shift the forcing east. We already saw some eastward migration of the forcing in August. This should lead to more -SOI and a boost to the El Niño warming. It’s going to be a very interesting 3 months coming up

I stand corrected then, I thought 72-73 was an east-based event to start

AGW is obviously a huge concern and temps need to be adjusted for that. I very seriously an early El Nino peak, all the models have a peak around November/December, then a very slow weakening through March. That, along with the healthy +IOD (shown to erode to neutral in January), leads me to believe we see subsidence over the eastern IO and Maritime Continent MJO phases. As far as ENSO orientation, I see it remaining east-lean through the winter…the models all show regions 1+2 and 3 staying warmer than 3.4 and 4 through January, which again makes me doubt west of the dateline La Niña like forcing. And @roardogeast-based El Niño doesn’t always mean complete blowtorch December, i.e. December, 1972. December, 1997 wasn’t a complete torch, warmer than normal, yes, the real blowtorch started in early January and carried through February and into the 1st half of March, 1998

Strong -PDO and I believe it was also -PMM (not 100% sure though), was also east-based super El Niño

My guess is a super trimonthly ONI (NDJ) of +2.2C, peaks in December: November: +2.2C December: +2.3C January: +2.2C

The models don’t show this +IOD event fading to neutral until sometime in January and they have actually gotten stronger with it, they also show a very gradual, slow weakening of what will most likely be a super El Niño through March after it peaks around December. Given that we are in the beginning of September, I fully expect the OHC to peak at or above +2.0, given that it normally doesn’t max out for another 3 months (November). I expect the MJO to propagate into the Pacific and with it, kill the trade winds and initiate another WWB and DWKW, enhancing the feedback. I think we see strong ENSO warming come the end of this month, also think we see much better coupling/strong -SOI as we move toward the end of the month

I am not good with the graphics, but in summary, we are seeing the +IOD strengthening, both oceanic (SST) and atmospheric response. This should constructively interfere with El Niño and lead to further warming and atmospheric coupling, -SOI in the next several weeks. The MJO propagating into the Pacific in conjunction with the +IOD, should also weaken the trades, cause a WWB/DWKW and also help lead to warming come the end of this month

https://x.com/selwyyyyn/status/1697565655653056596?s=46&t=NChJQK9_PUjA1K7D2SMojw https://x.com/jnmet/status/1697264889201348963?s=46&t=NChJQK9_PUjA1K7D2SMojw

I know you do when you want to show region 1+2 “dropping”

Toss it. The CFS being the flip flopping CFS. I have no faith in a model that’s been trying to cool region 1+2 into a La Niña since March. Garbage model