snowman19
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Yea, the wheels are already in motion right now to initiate another RNA regime by the beginning of February. The -PNA should start the last few days of this month. Unlike December, where we had -NAO/-AO blocking which tamed the SE ridge and a strong SPV that never coupled, it’s going to couple this time, get stronger and lead to ++AO/++NAO which allows the SE ridge to really pump. The weeklies also show a +EPO developing, it probably gets well above normal here for awhile:
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The pattern we are currently in comes to an end by 1/28….if we haven’t gotten anything by then it will most likely have to wait awhile. It may get very mild/torch for a time with this upcoming RNA bout as it looks like it will be accompanied by +NAO/+AO, unlike the last -PNA period in December which had -NAO blocking, this time around, the SE ridge probably goes on roids as does the SPV…..
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I don’t know why anyone in their right mind is still holding out hope that Saturday is going to somehow, someway, magically turn into a major snowstorm for the metro area, it’s done, gone, lost, over, finished, fat lady has sung, dead, buried, bring down the curtain, goodnight, goodbye, history, it’s over Johnny…..Let’s move on…..
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1-2 inches looks good for the city….NW of the city is probably a coating/dusting to an inch. That’s why my neck of the woods has no advisory
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@AllsnowAlso looks like we go into a strong +AO/+NAO pattern at the same time as the RNA…..the SPV will be at record strong levels and it couples with the troposphere….something that hasn’t happened yet this winter. It may get very mild for awhile:
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@AllsnowThe RNA is real…it’s actually moving forward in time on the models instead of staying stuck in the long range….looks like we are in a healthy -PNA by the last couple of days of this month:
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And you would be right, the Euro is another complete miss. ICON miss, GFS miss, CMC miss, UKMET nothing, and if you look at the 500mb at the end of their runs, the RGEM and NAM would also be misses. EPS was moving east on the last run. For this to suddenly turn back into a major snowstorm threat for Saturday would be an extreme long shot at the very best
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Anafrontal Passage Rain/Snow Threat 1/19/2022-1/20/2022
snowman19 replied to HVSnowLover's topic in New York City Metro
Be real careful with the NAM, I posted in the other thread, but it’s the most aggressive with this event out of all the models and it’s probably way overamped again. It was God awful with this last storm even the day of….. -
I wonder if it’s the NAM overamping again….it did a really awful job with this last storm, way too amped
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Ok. you’re certainly entitled to think that….
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The tail end of the month change back to RNA has been well advertised for the past week and it has a lot of support with the ensembles now. The models did a good job showing the coming end of month change in the tropical forcing a couple of weeks back
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Getting the feeling this may be a NYC, south and east event. You don’t have to worry about this one amping into an inland runner, I think the threat is a miss east/south not hugger or runner. Totally different setup from this past one
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After the NAM’s horrible performance with this storm, I wouldn’t get my hopes too high for this
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All he does is regurgitate the Euro, which you just said in the NYC thread this morning, is a horrible model….
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I think the HRRR did the best job with the storm. The NAM was way too amped and warm to start, also too aggressive with the midlevel warming early on
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The models are showing solid -PNA by the beginning of February and the signal has been very consistent. The change coming in tropical convective forcing supports it.
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If the new NAM is correct, there may be very little snow with this for the metro area. It only has an inch or so total even for up in Orange County, less than that south of there and that’s using the Kuchera. It absolutely torches the midlevels very quickly after precip begins, I would not be surprised to see Rockland/Bergen on south and east start as sleet then go to rain quickly https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam&p=snku_acc&rh=2022011618&fh=24&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
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No one should be throwing up any flags for anything. The models are all over the place
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A trough down to Southern California is bad for us. Numbers don’t matter, I don’t care if the PNA index is -1 or -2, look at the actual synoptic setup, it’s not going to magically be a good pattern for us because the PNA is only -1. If a western trough is dumped down to Tijuana, it’s a bad pattern for us. There are also hints of a +NAO in February, if that’s the case and the NAO is +, along with the RNA, we got big problems of the SE ridge type…..
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None of the models have been stellar. At the end of the run, it parks a TPV over New England. If that’s the case, it’s cold and bone dry. After tonight, the Euro is dry as can be for the next 10+ days, could it be right? Who knows, but would that scenario really surprise anyone given how things have gone here since late November?
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The Euro just went from a major snowstorm next weekend with a CCB ripping overhead last night to nothing, zippo today, no storm at all. Barely even FROPA now, positively tilted trough, fast flow, everything sheared and off shore. Model consistency has been pretty bad so far this winter
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Yea, there’s kind of no way to spin a full-latitude trough dumped in the west into a good pattern for us….
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Pointed this out just before but the models are suggesting that we have +NAO to go along with the RNA this go around, unlike December. The CFS (which has surprisingly done very well so far since November) is suggesting a strong +NAO:
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I wouldn’t compare it to December also for the simple fact that I don’t think we see -NAO this time around. The long range models are suggesting +NAO in February
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Yep. Good call on the RNA coming back the tail end of the month into February. Full-latitude trough back in the west
