snowman19

I never bought into the SAI after the epic failures over the years TBH I consider it as reliable as arctic sea ice but some do see the value. I’m indifferent

He said nothing about El Niño coupling lol he said only his SAI is acting like a Niña. He flat out admits that he knows little about the intricacies of El Niño. And the Nino has coupled and is strengthening. Not rehashing my post from 2 days ago again

Once the flux from TC Tej wears off the +IOD is going to strengthen again. I firmly believe we top 2019 and 1994 and make a run at topping 1997 too @so_whats_happening @GaWx

IMO it’s a NDJ peak and I still say it’s +2.1C - +2.3C for a trimonthly average. I think the big warming push is just about to start

You might not want to look at the SAI this year. Yesterday, Judah said it looks really bad, bottom feeder and there’s only 5 days left to go. Larry Cosgrove said arctic sea ice is abysmal too

Very pronounced low frequency (El Nino) forcing and coupling present:

Temporary flux from Typhoon Tej. It caused cooling further west in the IO. Extremely unlikely that it peaked and further strengthening will start again once the Typhoon effects wear off. A very well coupled +IOD system is already in place

IMO we see rapid warming in the coming weeks in regions 3.4, 3 and 1+2. I think we hit +2.0C in early November in 3.4 and we approach or reach +3.0C in region 1+2, we may approach +3.0C in region 3 as well

The subsurface is rewarming from the DWKW in progress. It’s going to warm even more and people are going to be eating crow when this one goes super. Per my last post: “New downwelling Kelvin wave initiating which will reinforce warmth. It’s already rewarming before this has even begun happening. New DWKW is from stationary westerly wind (WWB) stress. No signs of MJO propagation, this is low frequency Nino forcing dominating the tropics. This means that El Niño is strengthening, not weakening. 1. MJO weakening as low frequency forcing (aka the El Niño) now dominates global forcing. Convection is dead over the IO and Maritime Continent from Nino/++IOD forced subsidence 2. Continued walker cell coupling as the positive IOD intensifies 3. Current and further upcoming westerly wind stress over the antimeridian will continue to reinforce El Niño 4. Aforementioned westerly wind stress has already initiated a new downwelling Kelvin wave which will traverse the Pacific thermocline and reinforce warmth off of Peru 5. Westerly wind stress over the antimeridian is stationary with zero signs of eastward propagation All of these are consistent with El Niño and consistent with one which is strengthening, not weakening. Every Nino zone has already resumed warming and this is before the new downwelling Kelvin wave has contributed….”

God speed. IMO it is

I would not be for several reasons: New downwelling Kelvin wave initiating which will reinforce warmth. It’s already rewarming before this has even begun happening. New DWKW is from stationary westerly wind (WWB) stress. No signs of MJO propagation, this is low frequency Nino forcing dominating the tropics. This means that El Niño is strengthening, not weakening. 1. MJO weakening as low frequency forcing (aka the El Niño) now dominates global forcing. Convection is dead over the IO and Maritime Continent from Nino/++IOD forced subsidence 2. Continued walker cell coupling as the positive IOD intensifies 3. Current and further upcoming westerly wind stress over the antimeridian will continue to reinforce El Niño 4. Aforementioned westerly wind stress has already initiated a new downwelling Kelvin wave which will traverse the Pacific thermocline and reinforce warmth off of Peru 5. Westerly wind stress over the antimeridian is stationary with zero signs of eastward propagation All of these are consistent with El Niño and consistent with one which is strengthening, not weakening. Every Nino zone has already resumed warming and this is before the new downwelling Kelvin wave has contributed….

Must be those ever elusive, fake WWBs and +AAM spikes again. We’re just dreaming it, it’s not really happening, figments of our imaginations….. @brooklynwx99 100%. The composite you posted fits El Niño (+ENSO), November, with +AAM and MJO Phase 8 perfectly. Sorry, folks, that’s not a La Niña like response at all

Doesn’t match up at all with this. Not one value above +0 right through March on any model on that chart. Also, region 1+2 is warming again, up to +2.6C. Regardless of what happens in 3.4 this one is not becoming a Modoki https://cyclonicwx.com/data/sst/crw_ssta_graph_nino12.png

Lmfaooo he’s not even a meteorologist. Just a weather hobbyist. I’ll take the actual experts word for it

Lol the WWB just got going. Its not going to have a snap your fingers instant effect

This is a very strong ongoing WWB; spawning TC’s. Almost certain to form a substantial DWKW and result in very impressive ENSO warming in November. The -20’s SOI run continues….

Besides the -QBO, PDO and the fact that there was an El Nino, I never saw ‘09 as a match. This El Nino is not only stronger, it developed as a pure east-based/EP event. ‘09 was a classic, textbook Modoki, start to finish. It was also -IOD, which affects MJO progression, don’t remember what the solar was but I’m pretty sure it wasn’t a solar max year. The AMO wasn’t anywhere near as positive, you had an Atlantic tripole, you didn’t have record amounts of volcanic water vapor in the stratosphere either, AGW wasn’t anywhere near as pronounced as it is now, the STJ is already very strong now, the STJ response is different when there’s a Modoki, you had well above normal Siberian snowcover buildup in October, arctic sea ice was higher, (not that those matter to me, but still)…..

I really don’t think the -PDO is forcing the pattern even though it’s strongly negative. Maybe when it was record strong positive like back during the 14-15 winter, there was some feedback with those insanely warm ++ GOA and west coast SSTs, but other than that, no. Studies have shown that ENSO forces the PDO, not the other way around. The 2 main drivers I see this winter will be the El Niño and ++IOD. I think the MJO will largely be a non factor which is typical with strong ENSO events. When there is activity I expect it to be weak and fast moving and not in “La Niña” phases 3-6, so I guess that’s really a plus. The other secondary factors I see are the Hunga Tonga water vapor…what effects does that ultimately have on the stratosphere?, -QBO, solar (very high solar activity and geomag, approaching a solar max), ++AMO; right now there is no semblance of a “tripole”/New Foundland cold pool in the Atlantic, raging strong STJ, AGW must be factored in too. I can care less what arctic sea ice and Judah’s SAI does as both have proven to be a debacle over the last 15 years, that said, Siberian snowcover development to this point in time has been really horrible, lowest of the last 9 years on his index chart and sea ice is very low, below average…..the people who still follow it, take that for what you will

Massive WWB ongoing, going to trigger another DWKW. The SOI is down to -23

A powerful STJ is definitely not a La Niña hallmark:

I agree. The MJO is and has been dead in phases 3-6 (IO/Maritime Continent), thanks to the subsidence from the strong El Niño standing wave and the ++IOD. The SOI is also -22. You also have a massive WWB ongoing and ENSO warming. I don’t see where there’s La Niña forcing @roardog Look at this…..Where is the “La Niña forcing”???:

SOI down to -22 https://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/soi/