snowman19

Regardless of what happens with the forcing by winter, which is anyone’s guess right now, the common theme with ALL the models is that this El Nino isn’t going to be in any hurry to weaken and decay through March once it peaks (probably December). They all show a slow weakening starting in January

The OHC is rising very quickly, it typically does not max until November and it’s already up to +1.2. With 3 months of warming to go, it is extremely likely it reaches or exceeds +2 come November. Also, here comes the September MJO wave activity now that the monsoon is ending: https://x.com/bennollweather/status/1697204907160506418?s=46&t=NChJQK9_PUjA1K7D2SMojw

I am not talking about forcing in that comparison. As far as Nino evolution we are very far ahead of 1982 right now

We are way ahead of the 1982 super El Niño at this point in time….warmer at the surface and subsurface, warmer ONI, stronger WWBs/DWKWs, better positive feedback, stronger +IOD, stronger -SOI periods (since May), also more east-based than ‘82 as well. 1982 didn’t really take off until almost the end of September

Yes, -PMM. IMO the -PMM is what is helping to keep reinforcing the east-based Nino warming in regions 1+2 and 3. It’s starting to expand west from there into region 3.4 now, as Paul Roundy has been hinting out for months with his paper in Pre-1980 El Niños. This Nino is behaving like the El Niños from that era.., @so_whats_happening https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/clim/28/3/jcli-d-14-00398.1.xml

I’m not good with posting my own images on here, so. But anyway, the PAC MJO that should really kill the trade winds, initiate a strong WWB behind it and kick this Nino into overdrive is coming in September, also, here are a few images of the downwelling Kelvin wave renewing the subsurface warming in the east PAC that I was talking about earlier. https://x.com/tylerjstanfield/status/1696965796084220371?s=46&t=NChJQK9_PUjA1K7D2SMojw https://x.com/mario___ramirez/status/1696971527441281328?s=46&t=NChJQK9_PUjA1K7D2SMojw

I saw that too but I wasn’t going to be the one to post it so I wouldn’t get attacked and accused of anything….

The new subsurface warming was caused from the recent WWB in the equatorial east PAC, which initiated a DWKW. Positive feedback loop in place. Along with the rapid, ongoing OHC rise, and +IOD strengthening, I’m more confident than I’ve ever been that this event goes super trimonthly ONI….NDJ

IMO, very good chance we are at +2.0 or above come November, we are ahead of 1982 at this point in time

The pre-1980 Nino evolution continues:

As far as a trimonthly average for NDJ, I don’t think +2.2C like the BOM is showing is unreasonable. I can absolutely see something like what is being shown…+2.2C, +2.3C, +2.2C (NDJ)….

You can make an argument for 57-58 and 65-66. 02-03 and 09-10? I have serious issues with those given how this El Nino developed and is continuing to evolve, it’s night and day different, like not even remotely close. I know no one here has done it, but I’ve even seen 76-77 alluded to by JB and some other weenies on twitter, which is completely and utterly ridiculous, no comparison whatsoever

I only said when it is forecasted to emerge. If you re-read my post didn’t say anything about when it enhances Nino development aside from saying “in September”. I don’t think it takes until the end of September but we’ll see

The forecasted MJO wave over the western PAC looks real and is projected to gain strength as it moves across in the next several days. This will weaken the trade winds further, serve to initiate a WWB and enhance El Nino development going into September. The BOM’s new international average of models just came out and it has November at +2.2C, December at +2.3C and January at +2.2C, which is obviously weaker than what the new POAMA is showing but that was to be expected

The new weeklies have 3.4 at +1.5C (strong), 3 at +2.2C (super), 1+2 at +3.1C (super) and 4 at +1.1C (moderate)

This is the +IOD response that should push the SOI more deeply negative https://x.com/selwyyyyn/status/1696043822529360130?s=46&t=NChJQK9_PUjA1K7D2SMojw

The +IOD is strengthening rapidly, up to +1.1 and the new model runs got stronger with the peak and also keep it above +1 through January now before weakening it in February. The new POAMA doubled down with the El Niño, it peaks region 3.4 in NDJ, gets it up to +2.7C in November and up to +3.0C in both December and January. It initializes August at +1.2C, which is cooler, yes cooler, than what it actually will be for this month (probably over +1.3C) ENSO: http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/ocean/outlooks/#region=NINO34 IOD: http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/ocean/outlooks/#region=IOD

The models all show regions 1+2 and 3 remaining warmer than 3.4 and 4 through January. Given the ongoing, renewed subsurface warming under regions 1+2 and 3 (WWB/DWKW), I see no reason to doubt that scenario. The OHC is also going back up, already over +1, along with the constructive interference from the strengthening +IOD leads me to believe that we in fact do see a super trimonthly ONI peak as well

If this El Nino goes stays east-based and goes super ONI (very likely) and the forcing actually stays there this winter, THAT would definitely be an extremely rare first. Something to watch over the next 3 months….

The only one hyping it right now is delusional JB. He normally bashes it for being too warm, but today he loves it because it shows his wishcasted fantasy of a cold and snowy east coast winter for JFM

I think we are at +2.0C or over on the weeklies by the end of October. NDJ is when I think the trimonthly ONI peak happens, then the models show it weakening, slowly, through March. Given the renewed surface and subsurface warming from the new WWB/DWKW in regions 1+2 and 3, I think this one stays east-based/EP through winter. I’m sticking to my guess range of +2.1C - +2.5C for the ultimate peak. IMO the question isn’t will this event go super anymore….it’s “where does the main forcing/Nino standing wave set up shop for the winter”

Model error, forecasting trade wind bursts that aren’t going to happen. The monsoon is shutting down, it’s full speed ahead for this Nino now, the feedback system/Nino standing wave is already in place

@Gawx Want to add that like you, I think we see a very rapid rise in the OHC in the next month. IMO we see explosive Nino development next month

The ongoing WWB/DWKW activity along with the -SOI is resulting in fast growth and warming of both the subsurface and surface in ENSO regions 3.4, 3 and 1+2. Bjerknes feedback is increasing. The atmosphere is finally coupling. With the monsoon ending and the strengthening +IOD constructively interfering with the Nino, it is only going to keep intensifying as we go into September. Here is the latest SST map, note the rapid cooling around Indonesia…an indication that the +IOD is strengthening, it’s already over +1 and I think the models actually under forecasted the strength of the event:

I think it goes super on the weeklies by late October. That said, as @csnavywx posted, people are judging (and doubting) this El Niño and its evolution against the satellite era Ninos, can’t blame them since that’s the only real verifiable data we have. That sample size is extremely limited and small. Paul Roundy has been saying since March that this Nino was developing like the pre-satellite data Ninos of yester year. We are now seeing things really come together for a super El Nino event and come together in a VERY different way than the most recent super El Niños (72-73, 82-83, 97-98, 15-16) did….