snowman19

I guess the talk of this event developing in the Eastern Pacific then expanding west like the pre-1980 El Niños has some good merit

The subsurface below regions 3 and 1+2 is blazing and is going to warm even more with the new downwelling Kelvin wave. Warmest SSTs there too, so still a very east-based event. The POAMA is sticking to its guns, while it may be overdone some, what it’s showing is definitely possible and the CFS forecast is easily attainable

IMO, all this is making a high-end strong peak (at minimum) come late fall/early winter look more and more realistic and within reach

@Gawx Nino 3.4 still warming, 1+2 back up over +2

I never said super was guaranteed, not once. I do however feel that strong/high-end strong is a very good possibly and I still do. Joe Bastardi has less than zero credibility. None. Literally every single time there’s an El Niño he says it’s going to become a Modoki and uses 57-58, 65-66, 76-77, 02-03 and 09-10 as his analogs. Wash, rinse, repeat. Even back in 2015, he used 57-58, 65-66, 02-03 and 09-10 as his analogs (even mentioned 76-77 as a possible analog at one point that fall) and said it was going to be a “west-based” super El Niño, whatever the hell that means, after months of denying that it was even going to become super and saying it was falling apart because it didn’t fit his cold and snowy winter on the east coast narrative. He looked like a total fool that winter, as per usual for him

After 3 years in a row of La Niña, I would expect a decent atmospheric lag before a classic canonical El Niño/Bjerknes feedback forced pattern gets established. I don’t think we should expect a flip of a coin, instant change

2002 was a textbook Modoki, nothing at all like how this event is developing, not even close, in fact the El Ninos since 1980 have not developed like this, as Paul Roundy pointed out multiple times. The only one right now saying 02-03 is an “analog” is Joe Bastardi, who is wishcasting, as usual. He’s also using 57-58, 65-66, 09-10 and 76-77. No surprise coming from that utter hack

More of what Paul Roundy alluded to, this Nino is well ahead of other major El Niño years in region 1+2

Maybe the POAMA wasn’t so far fetched after all. More from Paul Roundy:

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Mario is a good meteorologist and there’s a “translate” feature you can click on, on those tweets and it goes right to English in seconds

You are the worst on here. Have been for years. You contribute nothing at all. Totally clueless, a troll, vapid, argumentative, flip flop like a fish out of water and contradict yourself. You have no room to talk about anyone, none

Who is Paul Roundy??? Fool. You are as vapid and clueless as the day is long. Total joke of a poster. Useless