snowman19
-
Posts
7,410 -
Joined
Content Type
Profiles
Blogs
Forums
American Weather
Media Demo
Store
Gallery
Everything posted by snowman19
-
How is it going to propagate east into phases 7, 8, 1, with the easterlies screaming from the Niña all the way to the dateline? They are going to shear the wave to shreds:
-
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam&p=snku_acc&rh=2021112700&fh=84&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
-
It’s a nothing burger my man lol enjoy the flurries on Sunday lol
-
It’s been popping up and that storm is going to cut. No -NAO block to stop it from cutting, no -AO, and the phantom +PNA is going to disappear and flatten out with the PAC jet crashing into it. The GFS, CMC, Euro, GEFS, GEPS, EPS all have it as a cutter and with good reason
-
@bluewaveStill a firehose PAC jet in the long range as far as the eye can see. It shows no signs of letting up. It also looks like the +EPO has established a positive feedback loop due to the super cold GOA/severely -PDO and the extremely deep snowpack over all of Alaska. It’s just continuing to manufacture it’s own extreme cold there due to the very heavy snowpack and lack of sun, Alaska is setting all kinds of cold records
-
It looks like the 6z Euro started a trend. The GFS, ICON, Ukie and CMC all want nothing to do with it now either
-
The La Niña driven easterly trades are absolutely roaring up to the dateline. Any MJO wave that tries to propagate into phases 7, 8 is going to get ripped apart and sheared to shreds
-
This is an extremely well coupled La Niña/-PDO/-PMM system in place right now:
-
The 6z Euro is a nothing burger for Sunday/Sunday night. Weak, disjointed mess, barely any QPF
-
The end of the run was going to torch, warm air was pushing in from the west and you know it. Stevie Wonder and Ray Charles could see where it was headed
-
@bluewaveThis is exactly what I was talking about yesterday. Last night’s EPS is already correcting warmer in the long range and the end of the run was actually ugly looking. If it went further it was about to move a torch in. This is deja vu of the last 3 winters, more phantom -EPO/-WPO that disappear:
-
As Bluewave pointed out, you know what you are looking at is not -EPO right? A ridge in the Aleutians is -WPO. A ridge over Alaska and the GOA would be -EPO
-
Another -EPO fantasy/phantom ridge in the long range that’s going to disappear lol And people are falling for it again hook, line and sinker. Hit the repeat button
-
Stop your trolling. I don’t trust anything the EPS shows anymore. I don’t care if it shows a freaking torch, I don’t believe it. It flips around like a fish out of water
-
The EPS is flip flopping horribly in the long range, wild run to run swings. It’s definitely not what it used to be. It’s had a very severe cold bias in the long range for the last several years
-
@bluewave Any model showing the MJO propagating east into phases 7 and 8 needs to be viewed with extreme skepticism due to destructive interference from La Niña. Any wave moving into those areas will likely be sheared apart. Here is the CPC’s new take on it:
-
Yea, the Euro keeps pumping phantom -EPO ridges in the long range. It’s been pretty bad
-
It looks like 12/1 - 12/15 may be a very stagnant pattern
-
It’s from the severely negative PDO and ++EPO that have been in place since early September
-
Some Thoughts on the Winter 2021-22 Outlook
snowman19 replied to OHweather's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
Not sure if you follow Griteater on twitter but what he tweeted yesterday is the most disturbing thing I’ve seen all fall. A severely positive EPO is the kiss of death for winter, even if you pop a -NAO/-AO all that would do is bring down and trap PAC junk air with the EPO floodgates wide open: -
This will probably be the most positive EPO fall on record:
-
Paul Roundy has expressed doubts that it ever makes it into phase 7. Reason being, strong easterlies and cold waters from the La Niña shear it apart when the wave tries to propogate into that area
-
Yes. Early to mid December may get quite mild. We keep the +EPO and go RNA/-PNA and we lose the -AO/-NAO. I would not be surprised to see pretty healthy above normal temperature departures come 12/15
-
Yep. It keeps building -EPO/+PNA mirages over and over in the long range. This has been going on for years now. It has a severe cold bias in the long range. Beware when it shows poleward Aleutian ridges as well. It likes showing big -WPOs that never come to fruition
-
As expected, the EPS was way too cold in the long range, yet another phantom -EPO fail:
