snowman19

IMO the people who are doubting that we even have an El Niño because other attempts have failed in the past since 2000 or because the PDO is negative or because the SOI isn’t strongly negative right now or saying it can’t or won’t get strong, are going to be very wrong. I also think the writing is on the wall that this one isn’t turning into a Modoki event, in fact, I think this one ends up being a classic East Pacific/EP event

True about 2014 with the SOI, however, back then you didn’t have an inferno in region 1+2. Also, region 3.4 is starting out even warmer now than 82 and 97 did at this point in time. IMO this one is for real. We shall see…..

This event (so far) is definitely not behaving like the previous El Niño fails we’ve seen since 2000. IMO this one is for real and it means business. The +IOD, among other things like the WWBs/MJO waves and the dramatic East Pacific warming, tells me this one isn’t just falling apart. Yes, the PDO is “out of phase” right now with a +ENSO, but as has happened in the past, there have been PDO disconnects with both major Niño and Niña events

The unprecedented, extreme warmth in ENSO region 1+2 right now, which is starting to encroach into region 3, is probably going to be devastating to Ecuador and Peru:

So far, we are ahead of both 1982 and 1997

Very early guesses at possible analogs….72-73 (-PDO, ultimate El Nino strength remains to be seen) and 06-07 (East Pacific/EP El Nino so far and also coming off a La Niña, like we are now)…..

An El Niño would have no problem developing along with a -PDO. ENSO is independent of the PDO. Although rare, 1972-73 was a super, east-based El Niño formed while the PDO was negative. In fact, that was a -PDO/super El Niño winter. Another example, 1995-96. La Niña/+PDO winter, the PDO was very positive that winter along with a solid La Niña

I’m sure Paul will get into more detail on twitter as this El Nino continues to progress, he’s definitely one of the best in the business. He did say back in late March that he believes this will be a classic East Pacific (EP)/east-based event. Its development so far would definitely support that

I can easily see how this event would peak at strong. Super is probably a stretch as of right now, but I don’t think a strong peak is far fetched at all

Yes, I’m assuming that’s what he means. Eclipsing the +3.1C in region 3.4 of late November 2015 in late summer would be near impossible

Paul Roundy thinks this may end up being the strongest El Niño in history by the end of this summer

This is the most confident the CPC has been that an El Niño is going to develop in the last 23 years…..

Strong as of now

This definitely is not looking anything like the El Niño fails of the past 2 decades, it means business. A Bjerknes feedback loop is going to get established, which will keep strengthening and reinforcing the Nino Walker circulation

Here comes El Niño and there’s going to be another big one behind it in May

The models absolutely nailed 15-16 and they did it early on too. It was actually a great job. I remember all the deep denials about how the models were severely overdoing the strength, it was going to fall apart, it was never going to reach super status, it was going to peak in August, then it was going to peak in September, it was going to be a Modoki, it was going to be west-based, it was weakening…..The wishcasts back then were truly a sight to behold. Joe Bastardi was the worst out of all of them. The fool actually used 57-58, 02-03 and 09-10 as his “analogs”

All the models are showing a strong El Niño along with a -PDO for this upcoming winter. If that’s actually what happens, good luck finding analogs….maybe 72-73? But that was in a totally different climate era, pre AGW…

Wrong as usual. I doubted strong I said high end moderate but I understand you have serious reading comprehension and memory problems

Regardless of where the Nino is centered, it looks like it’s going to be a very major event

IMO this one will either be basin-wide or east-based. I think Modoki/CP is off the table at this point. I also think this one goes strong, I doubt “super” at this point but I think there is a well above average chance at strong. The +IOD is only going to encourage further development through constructive interference

Moderate to strongly positive IOD developing…this is only going to facilitate further Nino development as it constructively interferes