snowman19

Kiss of death right there

This is not good, stronger than normal SPV continues, no signs of any SSW or SPV disruption over the next 3+ weeks:

This La Niña and -PDO mean business, very well coupled. As you pointed out that Niña standing wave is one of the strongest in history. If we don’t see a major SSW and we follow Niña climo, we are probably going to torch starting by late January and February…..

I agree with you. I doubt we ever see it actually go into phase 8. This is shades of several winters ago when the models wanted to go phase 8 from November through March and it never happened

If there’s no big SSW in January and that’s indeed what happens, February will be a furnace

If he’s right, yea you get rid of the super -PNA but you also get a +EPO to go along with it, he says it in his tweet chain, that is NOT what you want to see, especially when AAM may work to also flip the NAO positive…Matt Hugo touched on that

@bluewave @donsutherland1 The talk of a cold and snowy early-mid January may need to be tamed a bit:

How can anyone pay money to read this clown? Bust after bust year after year. First it was an arctic cold and snowy late November through the New Year, then ooops, cold and snowy early December, nevermind, cold and snowy mid December, nah, I meant cold and snowy late December….now it’s delayed but not denied cold and snowy early January. Snake oil salesman, he is the worst of the worst. Dreadful. Even Henry Margusity isn’t this bad

How was this their long-standing thinking? They were forecasting a super cold/snowy December back in November. This is why I stopped following them, they keep changing the narrative to make themselves seem right no matter what scenario happens then claim victory and if anyone questions them, they post nasty tweets in response

Assuming we don’t see a major SSW, it will be interesting to see what happens come mid-late January, that’s the time La Nina’s typically start to bring mild conditions, especially February, as the tropical forcing moves back to the maritime continent. This La Niña is obviously very strongly coupled, along with the -PDO, and if it follows climo that’s what we SHOULD see, however, given AGW, I wonder if something weird happens…..

HM wrote an article back in early 2012 showing that -QBO/Niña strongly supports a flat Aleutian ridge while +QBO/Niña strongly supports a poleward Aleutian ridge

Just heard there is severe icing in Warwick, Orange County, NY. Roads are supposedly a disaster

Same old song since late November….models grossly underestimating the -PNA until we get to the medium range. This is a good explanation of the upcoming pattern for early January:

Snowed here about half an inch, flurries now. It took awhile to saturate

Virga here too. There is a boundary layer dry punch. The HRRR is still showing nothing for accumulations

With the current -PNA/Aleutian ridge feedback pattern in place in the PAC, if the NAO/AO go positive, the SE ridge goes on roids and we will torch big time. The -NAO is the only reason you aren’t in short sleeves right now

This is not good. If correct, (not saying it is) we are in trouble:

The new HRRR has next to nothing now. It’s drying the whole precip shield out. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=hrrr&region=neus&pkg=asnow&runtime=2021122404&fh=16

Want to see a semi-permanent positive feedback loop in action? Here you go:

That’s the thing, I don’t think we break this feedback loop anytime soon, this is quite the self-sustaining system we have in place right now. IMO if you want to see a big shakeup, it would be a major SSW and there’s just no signs of that yet. In fact, it appears the SPV gets very strong the 1st week of January. I read the literature you spoke of and it’s definitely promising for a SSW, assuming we actually follow climo….but what is normal climo lately? Lol If we get into late January and we still have a strong SPV with no signs of a SSW and the same tropospheric feedback loop in place, it will not be good to say the least. Plenty for us to watch the next few weeks and good pickup on your part with those very warm waters in phase 7 helping to sustain the wave there. I’m sure you saw ENSO Region 4 is the coldest its been in many years, one of the coldest in over the last 40 years in fact….like you said it’s going to be very difficult for that MJO to propagate east, the cold waters are going to kill the T-storm activity:

If there was anything concerning, it’s this (SPV). IMO, this is definitely not what you want to see happen in January. Especially since the already in place synoptic tropospheric forcing/drivers are not going anywhere soon

I was looking at this earlier….that positive feedback loop is going to keep that -PNA/Aleutian ridge in place, it’s a self-sustaining process, definitely not good news, especially when you couple that with possible IO convection taking shape mid-January

@bluewaveEarly January starting to not look all that cold anymore, here’s the big part of the reason why, that Niña standing wave will not be denied this winter:

In the last 30 years, I think only 1 winter came close to a 0 snowfall total winter and that was 01-02, all the other duds still had notable snow events during the Dec-Mar time frame, which would include 97-98, 11-12, 19-20

Nice post. I know you warned about it before and have been very fair….but some people have to have to face the fact that the MJO may never makes it in to phase 8. I stated my reasoning for thinking it doesn’t a few times and you were very objective about it. You also don’t want to see IO convection start firing in mid-January, something some models are showing