snowman19

Yea, based on what you’ve been showing, I’m becoming more convinced that this Nino event stays east-based and never goes basin-wide or Modoki. I honestly wouldn’t be surprised if Region 4 stays neutral throughout this event given what’s been going on and projected to continue. This would be the 1st true Eastern Pacific/EP El Niño in forever

At this point, it’s a given that there’s going to be a significant El Niño. What you are showing tells me that the chances of this becoming a Modoki or even a basin-wide event are getting slimmer and slimmer. I’m wondering if Region 4 even reaches El Niño status now, it may not. This is just lending more support that this stays an exclusively east-based/Eastern Pacific El Nino event

This is highly anomalous for June

I would recommend you give your gut another month

https://www.space.com/nasa-spots-sign-of-el-nino-from-space-2023?utm_content=space.com&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=socialflow

So it was off by 0.6….

If nothing else, the atmosphere is definitely primed for El Niño

Up until this year, the POAMA did not have a warm bias unlike some other models

Incorrect. The Australian model does not have a warm bias

This:

Agreed. Besides the tanked SOI, look at the tweets I just posted….there’s +6C subsurface anomalies barely below the surface in regions 1+2 and 3. Not really sure where people are getting that this event is an east-based El Niño fail….the 20C isotherm is just below the surface in those regions and the warmest SSTs in the tropical Pacific are currently in ENSO regions 1+2 and 3. How some people think that’s an east-based Nino fail is beyond my comprehension. The MJO stalled in phase 7 is going to produce WWBs across the tropical PAC soon

There it is! As predictable as the rising sun. El Niño coming and the 57-58, 02-03 and 09-10 analogs come flying from him. 76-77 will be next. Without fail. Hit the repeat button. Groundhog Day