snowman19

Just keep in mind that in strong/super Ninos the MJO may be a complete non factor at times (COD), possibly a lot, and the Nino standing wave runs the show, as is typical for the stronger events. When there is MJO activity however, I expect more 8-1-2 weak, fast moving wave activity as opposed to the 15-16 unusual Niña phases due to the very strong +IOD. As you can see here, the Nino is exerting its force:

Correct, it’s in the top 3 in the last over 43 years. That would classify as “near record”, I didn’t say it was “the record”, but extremely impressive nonetheless. And [mention=2515]Terpeast[/mention] just in terms of SSTs, I consider it to be east-based, it’s not even close to being a Modoki, or becoming one….not even in the ballpark. Further, [mention=13726]so_whats_happening[/mention] the PDO does not force ENSO, on the contrary, it’s the other way around @Gawx has the IOD info

Latest ENSO weekly update: Region 1+2: +2.6C Region 3: +1.9C Region 3.4: +1.5C Region 4: +1.2C This El Niño is still very east-based. I see very little to no chance at all of this event becoming a Modoki, despite the non stop hype from JB. Region 1+2 has warmed back up to +2.8C on the OISST as of yesterday’s update, region 3 is almost +2.0C (record warm) on OISST https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf

Since the IOD is not projected to go completely neutral until February, along with the atmospheric lag thereafter, I would expect it to go all the way through winter into March/April

Yes. This is what I’ve been saying. This record +IOD along with a strong/super El Niño is going to completely suppress/subsidence the IO and MC convection. That is why the MJO is projecting weak right now. Fast moving, weak MJO ph 8-1-2 waves constructively interfering and coupling with the Nino standing wave are what I’d expect in this setup. I don’t think we will have to worry about Niña-like MJO forcing (15-16) this time around

@Gawx This is very likely to be the strongest +IOD event in history. It jumped all the way up to +1.85 and still strengthening

@Typhoon Tip The water vapor hadn’t fully saturated the polar/arctic stratosphere in the Northern Hemisphere yet like it has now. “Thus large effects on the arctic polar vortex are expected to manifest starting in the 2023/2024 cool season." See this study: https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2023GL103855

Not really sure why Metsfan weenie’ed this post, but this would be what you want to see…MJO waves (8-1) constructively interfering, coupling with the El Niño standing wave and suppression/subsidence over the IO and Maritime Continent. The +IOD is also playing a big role. Unless you more of the same Niña-like forcing of what we’ve had over the last 4 winters in a row. And as far as the -PDO, yes it is most likely going to go positive from the Nino forcing this winter but likely not until April or so. It’s going to take some time to completely erode and alter the configuration from what is now a very deeply negative state….

https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2023GL103855

Time to start watching the stratosphere closely, this month and especially next month to see what stratospheric temps do. We now have full water vapor saturation of the Northern Hemisphere’s polar/arctic stratosphere

So much for the “huge” drop in region 1+2: CRW: https://cyclonicwx.com/data/sst/crw_ssta_graph_nino12.png OISST: https://cyclonicwx.com/data/sst/ssta_graph_nino12.png Region 3.4 warming right back up: CRW: https://cyclonicwx.com/data/sst/crw_ssta_graph_nino34.png OISST: https://cyclonicwx.com/data/sst/ssta_graph_nino34.png Region 3 is still record warm too at around +2.0C

Here is his write up: http://icecap.us/images/uploads/Winter_of_0910.pdf “Westerly QBO (+QBO) usually in El Niños favors a western ridge and eastern trough” @Gawx

I’m not sure how “Niña-like” this winter’s global longwave pattern is. 2 main reasons: 1) El Niño/+IOD would seemingly support MJO 8-1 waves (weak, fast moving waves due to the Nino standing wave running the show and also +IOD causing convective suppression and subsidence over the IO and Maritime Continent) 2) Although we have a record, severely negative PDO right now, the Nino forcing this winter (Nov - Mar) should be causing it to deliberately and steadily rise in the coming 5 months. I think it probably takes until April or so before we see it actually go positive due to the fact that it’s tanked right now and it’s going to take awhile to come back up. That said, as per D’Aleo’s research, there may be more -PNA/RNA than would normally be expected in a Nino due to the -QBO, Nino combo, which he found to be supportive of that outcome…..

There are a few models showing a January peak now, so it’s possible that they are onto something. I’ve been expecting a December peak but it’s possible this one doesn’t follow the normal game plan and peaks later than climo

Very rapid cooling of the SSTs north of Australia right now. The +IOD should peak come the beginning of November but it is not projected to go completely back to neutral until February

Here comes the coupling:

Your recent posts discussing Nino development this month

Paul Roundy: “As is often the case in El Niño events during Northern Fall, a subseasonal westerly event transitions the east Pacific from easterly anomalies to westerly anomalies. This signal will strengthen the east Pacific nature of this event.” @so_whats_happening

It definitely got weaker with the arctic/polar (AO/NAO) blocking like ORH_wxman mentioned already. I agree that the threat with a strong/super Nino is an east-displaced Aleutian Low (+EPO, +WPO) and there is also the threat of the -QBO, El Niño inducing -PNA as per D’Aleo’s research that I mentioned earlier

CDAS lol. Modoki index: -0.24. Nothing even remotely close to a Modoki. Total wishcast. And the Euro got stronger with the peak since last run. Showing a super El Niño: https://www.twitter.com/atmospheric_g2/status/1709923014744101071?s=46&t=NChJQK9_PUjA1K7D2SMojw

This also fits with the Joe D’Aleo studies and research showing -QBO/El Nino (“Nino-East he called it) resulting in -PNA winters

Very high solar flux right now, way exceeding previous expectations. This may play a role in the state of stratosphere as well… https://www.twitter.com/rynelancer/status/1709642809492316649?s=20