snowman19
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Everything posted by snowman19
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I’m not talking about him. JB said it’s turning into a Modoki
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Anything is possible and we will see. I am however very confident that this is not becoming a Modoki like some other people are wishcasting
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Region 1+2 is blazing again, up to +2.6C and climbing, region 3 is at +1.2C and also climbing. This event isn’t just east-based, it’s extremely east-based. And there’s yet another Eastern Pacific WWB/downwelling Kelvin wave
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Classic Eastern Pacific (EP) canonical El Niño. The east-based warming/WWBs/downwelling Kelvin waves just continue to get re-enforced through Bjerknes feedback:
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@Bluewave The new GEFS is showing a strong WWB in the EPAC (regions 3 and 1+2). Another big warming coming in that area? I think this event is going to be known for its WWBs and downwelling Kelvin waves in the EPAC breaking on the South American coast
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The thing is though, every Nino in history has weakened during northern hemispheric winter. Every Nino on record normally peaks in November/December then weakens in Jan, Feb, Mar. If that’s what this one does, it would be perfectly normal and expected
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ENSO region 1+2 warming again…almost up to +2.5C. Region 3 up to +1.2C and climbing…https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/nino3.png https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/nino12.png
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@Raindancewx is on board too
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The NMME is going nuclear with the Nino this summer: https://twitter.com/climate_earth20/status/1666499588201627649?s=46&t=NChJQK9_PUjA1K7D2SMojw
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The new POAMA isn’t budging. While it’s the warmest, all the other models are warming and starting to come towards a +2.0C consensus for a peak this coming fall
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Probably another round of extreme negative SOI coming in less than 2 weeks if the models are correct
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Yes, Paul Roundy said that exact same thing back at the end of April. Said we didn’t need a WWB progression like 1997 for this event to get very strong. He’s been on the very east-based El Nino migrating itself west into region 3.4 train. He still thinks this one is going to reach super
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Yes. It’s looking like the POAMA may have indeed lead the way with this one. If the models are correct and this peaks at or eclipses +2.0C in region 3.4 there will be papers written about it and it will be talked about for the next 20-30 years for the way it developed
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It looks both way briefer and much weaker in intensity than what was being forecasted last week at this time. Then it looks like westerlies take over again thereafter and the next round of warming should start. Also, looks like a rather healthy downwelling Kelvin wave is going to take shape later on this month and that should boost the subsurface anomalies especially under regions 3 and 1+2
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If it goes high-end strong/“low-end” super it’s most likely going to be a torch winter with a higher than normal chance of a KU bomb up the coast with the juiced STJ if you get really lucky and thread the needle an arctic cold shot, a la 1983/2016. This turning into a Modoki is not an option IMO
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While I too think +2.7C is most likely overdone, I can see a peak of something in the neighborhood of +1.9C - +2.3C in late fall. This one is starting to look like it’s going to be the real deal
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The ECMWF is getting as aggressive as the POAMA with the El Niño now. A high-end strong event is becoming increasingly likely come fall IMO
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New Euro seasonal showing a very strong El Niño developing
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I guess the talk of this event developing in the Eastern Pacific then expanding west like the pre-1980 El Niños has some good merit
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The subsurface below regions 3 and 1+2 is blazing and is going to warm even more with the new downwelling Kelvin wave. Warmest SSTs there too, so still a very east-based event. The POAMA is sticking to its guns, while it may be overdone some, what it’s showing is definitely possible and the CFS forecast is easily attainable
