snowman19
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Everything posted by snowman19
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Should see some real good warming in 3.4 and 3 now. DWKW. And the +IOD continues to strengthen rapidly as well
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It already coupled:
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It was for the NYC metro area…
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I fully expected February and March to be lost causes last winter, I did not expect the unmitigated December and January disasters though in spite of the healthy 3rd year La Niña however
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I can easily see this eclipsing +2.0C in November: Region 3.4: https://cyclonicwx.com/data/sst/crw_ssta_graph_nino34.png Region 3 and 1+2: https://cyclonicwx.com/data/sst/crw_ssta_graph_nino3.png https://cyclonicwx.com/data/sst/crw_ssta_graph_nino12.png
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It appears some healthy warming is imminent: “Do you think this Nino will reach super status?”
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You’re right about that, maybe they should have said the strongest event in the last 20 years? Although this one may very well rival 1997’s event. One thing is for sure, this Nino is coupling now:
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Regardless of what happens with ENSO between now and December it does appear that we will have a new +IOD record on our hands:
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+IOD standing wave in place now
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I’m calling it now, IMO we go above +2.0C in region 3.4 come the 1st week of November and November will average at least +2.1C. That will be the 1st month of the trimonthly super peak. I’m also calling that this +IOD becomes stronger than the 2019 event, peaks in early November and lasts longer than 19-20 did, doesn’t go neutral until February
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Potential Hunga Tonga effects aside, that study has some pretty convincing evidence that the NAM and NAO may not be as favorable as some think due to the very strong +IOD event and the effects from that
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It is definitely east-based/EP when looking at raw SSTs and the EP look is about to be reinforced. I would also wait until November before declaring that this has no chance of becoming super either
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I’m not so sure we see a predominantly -NAO this winter here’s why: Study link: https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/asl.1005
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@brooklynwx99 https://www.twitter.com/paulroundy1/status/1712052777453527330?s=46&t=NChJQK9_PUjA1K7D2SMojw FWIW the new JMA still gets it to super
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I don’t care about that model. I posted it for their disco
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New BOM update: https://ow.ly/MjnY50PVpMh
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Here comes the parade of Nino linked typhoons
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This is why I still think this Nino goes super:
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I’m going down with the ship I guess. I still think it goes super
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If we do indeed get to a super event in this way, it will really be historic. It will definitely be the subject of studies and papers written for several years to come. Totally defied the “normal” progression we are accustomed to from the start
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This El Nino is definitely going to make its presence felt. I have no doubts at all about that. Besides the PDO, what did the IOD and MJO do interacting with the Nino during the 72-73 winter? That might explain some of it….
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My question is, if we do indeed see a trimonthly super event and I’m still very confident we do, how far east does the forcing move in response? I think we pretty much get the answer to that come late November. I’m not confident at all in what happens to the Nino forcing
